Who will be the top 5 SEC programs over the NEXT 5 seasons?

[WhosYourDawggy]

We've really only had two seasons of the transfer portal, with these new rules. My guess this is the year where you see the transfers have a significant role in winning/losing and making the cfp. Teams like Oregon, Ole Miss, OSU and ND will all be relying on transfers, and I'd say all have a great shot at making the cfp, and maybe even FSU too. And I think Oregon and OSU have a great shot at winning it.

I agree we have a small sample size. We also don't know what the CFP-12 will do. But, I base my opinion on the fact that the following matters most to winning the NC:

1. Quality depth
2. Culture
3. Experience laden teams
4. Luck, which is often a function of the above.
5. A generational player, but that is rare.

I am of the opinion that the top 3 are a function of having great high school recruiting classes. The portal can fill gaps, but the portal will also give you more one and dones which cut against 1-3, but might get you 5.

That doesn't mean that the portal can't help you win it as a one-off, and we will see some at some point. But we haven't seen it yet, and nothing that has happened to this point leads me to believe that is the way to sustained success.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

.......Michigan didn't average a top 10 class over the last 4 years and just won a national title because of, largely, some of the portal players we picked up the last two years. I'm just saying that top 5 classes can easily, and do, leave. Alabama's roster got gutted as soon as saban left.

First, Saban's class getting gutted is an outlier. That's obvious. Clemson didn't average a top 10 class either, but won for reasons similar to UM ... an experience, senior laden class, with great culture. Per my post above, those are things you need. You didn't get that through the portal. And, it won't result in sustained success as I don't see UM having sustained success in the future with a new HC, new coordinators, losing 80% of your starters, playing a far tougher schedule, etc. If you really look at it, UM was not a portal driven team ... you had solid high school recruiting, great culture, with gaps filled by the portal.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Sure, but your starting QB is a transfer. IMO that's relying pretty heavily on the portal. Downs, Judkins and McLaughlin will also play prominent roles. But the big reason is because of the QB.

No, that's filling in gaps with the portal.

 

[Across The Field]

Sure, but your starting QB is a transfer. IMO that's relying pretty heavily on the portal. Downs, Judkins and McLaughlin will also play prominent roles. But the big reason is because of the QB.

Howard is the most pivotal transfer, yes, but Downs and Judkins are icing on the cake. We'd still have plenty of optimism without them on board, it's just adding to it. The excitement for this team even with Howard, Judkins, and Downs would be nowhere near as high without the 8 guys that all came back.

 

[ericd7633]

Howard is the most pivotal transfer, yes, but Downs and Judkins are icing on the cake. We'd still have plenty of optimism without them on board, it's just adding to it. The excitement for this team even with Howard, Judkins, and Downs would be nowhere near as high without the 8 guys that all came back.

Yes, you'd still be really good without the portal guys(just like every year), but those guys will all be significant contributors. And without Howard, I don't think you'd be the favorite to win the title(at least according to me). There's a pretty big drop between Howard and Brown. Maybe Sayin or Norland would have been ready, but their just unknown.

 

[ericd7633]

No, that's filling in gaps with the portal.

Not when one of them is the most important position on the field, and a big upgrade over the rest of the QB's on their roster.

 

[Thiefery]

Not when one of them is the most important position on the field, and a big upgrade over the rest of the QB's on their roster.

lol man we don't know if it's a real upgrade til we see what he does on the field.. guy struggled throwing it at times and is streaky..

he could be boom or bust

 

[Across The Field]

First, Saban's class getting gutted is an outlier. That's obvious. Clemson didn't average a top 10 class either, but won for reasons similar to UM ... an experience, senior laden class, with great culture. Per my post above, those are things you need. You didn't get that through the portal. And, it won't result in sustained success as I don't see UM having sustained success in the future with a new HC, new coordinators, losing 80% of your starters, playing a far tougher schedule, etc. If you really look at it, UM was not a portal driven team ... you had solid high school recruiting, great culture, with gaps filled by the portal.

Agree with your points about long-term, but Clemson was elite for 12 years and sustained it, and also had two highly elite QBs making plays all the time with a 3rd (Boyd) who was great in college as well. They also had some of the best teams of the century no doubt. They were like 2023 michigan with a turbocharger and more torque.

 

[Across The Field]

Yes, you'd still be really good without the portal guys(just like every year), but those guys will all be significant contributors. And without Howard, I don't think you'd be the favorite to win the title(at least according to me). There's a pretty big drop between Howard and Brown. Maybe Sayin or Norland would have been ready, but their just unknown.

First off, I'd honestly say (if Brown even stays) that Lincoln will be our backup QB in 2024. That said, Howard is extremely important, but it doesn't mean we're reliant on the portal; he's once piece. Point being, we could've gotten him, Judkins, and Downs, but without the other guys all coming back we likely wouldn't be looked at anywhere near as much like a national contender like we are with them.

 

[ericd7633]

lol man we don't know if it's a real upgrade til we see what he does on the field.. guy struggled throwing it at times and is streaky..

he could be boom or bust

I think it will be. Which is why I lumped OSU into this grouping. I think it's a pretty big upgrade over Brown or trotting out there a TR FR(albeit really talented ones).

If he doesn't do well, OSU won't win the title. OSU is my pick currently to win it.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I was worried when you said they are going to make the wagon disappear.
Because I've never seen that Plainsman dude.

Pray you never do.

 

[ericd7633]

First off, I'd honestly say (if Brown even stays) that Lincoln will be our backup QB in 2024. That said, Howard is extremely important, but it doesn't mean we're reliant on the portal; he's once piece. Point being, we could've gotten him, Judkins, and Downs, but without the other guys all coming back we likely wouldn't be looked at anywhere near as much like a national contender like we are with them.

QB is the most important position on the field though. You had all these same returning guys last year, and couldn't get it done, mostly because of McCord. And if you had to start Brown or the other guy, I think that's a sizable drop off from Howard(maybe one of the TR FR would be good, but who knows). Maybe I'm just extremely high on Howard, but he is THE reason why I think you'll win it all. Without him, I'd probably have you guys at like 5 or 6. Yes, 5 or 6 is still really good, but getting him in the portal is the difference between winning a title and not(at least according to me).

 

[Across The Field]

QB is the most important position on the field though. You had all these same returning guys last year, and couldn't get it done, mostly because of McCord. And if you had to start Brown or the other guy, I think that's a sizable drop off from Howard(maybe one of the TR FR would be good, but who knows). Maybe I'm just extremely high on Howard, but he is THE reason why I think you'll win it all. Without him, I'd probably have you guys at like 5 or 6. Yes, 5 or 6 is still really good, but getting him in the portal is the difference between winning a title and not(at least according to me).

I'm not doubting that aspect, I'm high on the guy too. He's a great fit in our offense. I'm saying if we had him, Judkins, Downs, and the Bama OL, we'd probably not even be 5 or 6 without Emeka, Treyveon, Jackson, Sawyer, JT, Tyliek, Lathan Ransom, Denzel Burke, and Jordan Hancock. We're relying on Howard for sure; we're relying on those other returnees even more.

 

[ericd7633]

I'm not doubting that aspect, I'm high on the guy too. He's a great fit in our offense. I'm saying if we had him, Judkins, Downs, and the Bama OL, we'd probably not even be 5 or 6 without Emeka, Treyveon, Jackson, Sawyer, JT, Tyliek, Lathan Ransom, Denzel Burke, and Jordan Hancock. We're relying on Howard for sure; we're relying on those other returnees even more.

Yeah, but you had those guys last year and it didn't translate to winning the B1G or making the CFP. Mostly because of McCord. And that was also with having the best player in CFB. You might not be 5 or 6 without some of those guys, but you also wouldn't be #1(at least IMO) without the guys you brought in. I think you could have still won the title even if some of those returnees left(lets say 5 or 6 of them), I don't think you could have without bringing in Howard.

 

[Hu War Yu]

Ole Miss
South Carolina
Puny Contender #1
Puny Contender #2
Puny Contender #3

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Not when one of them is the most important position on the field, and a big upgrade over the rest of the QB's on their roster.

Sure it is. The position that transfers the most is QB ... 70% of QBs don't finish at the school where they started. But the issue we are talking about here is not that - the issue we are discussing is whether a team can win using the portal to make up for poor high school recruiting. That's not what tOSU has done. They have been top 3 over the past 7 years. They are using the portal to supplement their good HS recruiting.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Agree with your points about long-term, but Clemson was elite for 12 years and sustained it, and also had two highly elite QBs making plays all the time with a 3rd (Boyd) who was great in college as well. They also had some of the best teams of the century no doubt. They were like 2023 michigan with a turbocharger and more torque.

They have fallen off since Watson and Sunshine left ... all their success came with two generational QBs. They always had the benefit of playing in the ACC which is why they had the sustained run they had. If Dabo doesn't change his ways, they are done winning NCs.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Yes, you'd still be really good without the portal guys(just like every year), but those guys will all be significant contributors. And without Howard, I don't think you'd be the favorite to win the title(at least according to me). There's a pretty big drop between Howard and Brown. Maybe Sayin or Norland would have been ready, but their just unknown.

You are making my point ... tOSU recruits HS as well as anyone not UGA and Bama. The guys they got will be significant contributors to the good people already there. They are filling gaps with the portal. The teams building through NIL and the portal are Miami, FSU, Tenn, Ole Miss, Colorado, etc. FSU had the most success. Let's see how they do this year with a 20-ish class, and then a bunch of transfers. They had to hit almost 100% on career years for their success last year. Can they do that again?

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

lol man we don't know if it's a real upgrade til we see what he does on the field.. guy struggled throwing it at times and is streaky..

he could be boom or bust

This. I am still not convinced they upgraded. Time will tell.

 

[Across The Field]

They have fallen off since Watson and Sunshine left ... all their success came with two generational QBs. They always had the benefit of playing in the ACC which is why they had the sustained run they had. If Dabo doesn't change his ways, they are done winning NCs.

You're not wrong, they've fallen off since 2020 for sure. They had the benefit of playing the ACC but they also beat some monster teams in the 2010s. Hell, 2023 is the first season since 2010 where they didn't have at least 10 wins. Dabo is a nutjob but he definitely built something elite there, while even if Harbaugh stayed michigan was gonna regress in 2024.