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The Official SEC thread
- Thread starter Thiefery
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Nothing with the ACC will happen shortly. Even if they bust the GOR, which I don't think they will do, it will take years. The ACC has no choice. They are fighting for their survival. I can't imagine any scenario where there is a settlement.
Once that happens the problem is simple:
- Most of the mid and lower tier schools won't want FSU and Clemson - who wants even more losses?
- Any teams that aren't guaranteed losses don't bring in enough added revenue - UNC, NCSU, UVa, and VaTech ate the ones most often mentioned. Sorry, not enough value.
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FSU won’t be in the ACC for the 2026 season. Argue with your mama
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1. I don't that ESPN will pay for it.
2. I do know there will be a lot of opposition to moving to 9 games (it won't be Auburn).
My bet is your AD gets a call from Mr. Sankey with a tutorial of how to keep your mouth shut.
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I don't think the SEC says no to FSU or Clemson and know for a fact they will they will say yes to UNC.
Now I get the argument against any further expansion and its valid but I think the B1G and SEC have bigger plans and both conferences go to 20 teams and kill off the ACC when the time is right.
The 3 I would bet on the SEC taking are FSU, Clemson and UNC.
The 4th that I would take is Duke (save your breath with the counterargument because we will just disagree) because if you add Duke and UNC to the SEC with the current basketball talent we become the premier basketball league in the country and it isn't close anymore.
Right now the SEC is the premier league in the following sports:
Football
Baseball
Softball - Oklahoma boost this profile big time
Sports you can make a strong argument for:
Women's Basketball - Not there yet but we have a team typically in the final 4
Gymnastics - I think we are there honestly
The big dog that we are not the premier conference is basketball and if you looked at teams playing right now we would be second behind the Big 12 but just not by much. Historically that isn't the case but put Kentucky, Duke and UNC in the same conference and it changes everything.
I take Duke in a second.
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In addition to softball, OU Men's and Women's gymnastics are both currently ranked #1. OU wins National Championships in gymnastics like clockwork.
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Duke was a long shot at best imo when you first mentioned em but… the more I look at the football schedules and the obvious need for a few more layups (no pun intended) and then taking all things valuable in North Carolina as a conference (BIG took California) plus the hoops money that game would bring and another hate rivalry game in all sports.… I’m liking it more and more.
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LOL ... explain it to us. The only way they aren't in is if they come up with 500+ million to buy their way out. You don't seem to understand how long these types of lawsuits take. Hell, they will be arguing and appealing for a year just to determine if the lawsuit is in NC or FL.
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With all due respect, you don't know anything for a fact unless you have been talking to Sankey, and he isn't saying shit.
The mid to low SEC teams do not want Clemson and FSU, nor does USCjr and UF. Seriously, can you see the lower half of the SEC saying, let's bring in FSU and Clemson and go to 9 IC games ... we really want to lose a few more games each year.
On one hand you list programs because of money. Then you list two teams that wouldn't drive any money. Make it make sense.
Which AD is going to say, sure, let's take Duke and UNC ... it'll only cost us $5-$10 million per year to have them in the league. What a deal.
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Without Duke and UNC, by 2026 each team will be making about $100 million. You add UNC and Duke and now each team makes $90 million. Does that sound like math that anyone in the SEC is going to agree with?
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That include the total basketball revenue as far as tournament appearances ect.?
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1. The current deal allows for expansion with revenue increase so no one would be taking less money.
2. If the ACC last until 2037 the SEC will be under a new contract anyway but someone will buyout at some point when the economics work.
3. It’s pointless making arguments using today’s revenue model because it will be done in a decade. My guess is a streaming product and then you have to consider how many Duke basketball fans are out there because that will matter.
Everything is speculation at this point but the one thing that is absolutely is money will drive everything. The future will be subscribers and control. Control will eventually mean March Madness.
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I don't know what FSU will end up paying to leave the ACC. There's just too much money to be lost by not being in the SEC or Big Ten in 2026. The CFP is going to be dominated financially the P2. They simply won't be able to afford to remain in the ACC.
On top of that, people with intimate knowledge of the contracts seem to think the ACC GOR isn't as ironclad as some have made it out to be. ESPN has the ability to opt out earlier and that could essentially dissolve the conference.
Like I said, FSU will not be playing in the ACC by the 2026 season. I'm not arguing with anyone about that, I'm just trying to give you all a peak on what's coming. Just like when I told everyone the Big Ten wasn't going to just sit at 16 long term. Everyone said the Big Ten needed ND to expand again. They didn't. They will likely expand again without Notre Dame.
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Texa$ calls the shots now
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Basketball is not in the equation regarding revenue, even for Duke and UNC. You can see that the B12 is running hard on this ... they want to become the hoops conference. That will give them some incremental revenue, but it's not enough to make up for the fact that Duke is in the bottom 90 of TV ratings, UNC is 49th, and neither has a chance of getting any CFP revenue. UNC might get 1 or 2 shares every 10 years. And they both have small fanbases because they are small schools - UNC only has 20K students, half of the SEC schools, and even less than that of the B1G schools. Duke has 7K students, half of Vanderbilt.
You have to remember ... they are wanting a full share - $100 million by 2027. If they have poor TV ratings ... no one is logging in because Duke is playing [SEC school name here], and the same for UNC.
Pesonally, I would love to have them in the SEC. I live 20 minutes from both campuses, and one son graduated undergrad at UNC, the other is in med school at UNC. Imagine weekends where I might have 2 SEC games within 20 minutes of my house. But, I just don't see if from the financial side.
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1. No, it doesn't. ESPN is giving a pro-rata share for anyone that comes into the SEC. Please show us your source for that. If anyone atESPn negotiated that deal they should be shown the door.
2. Doesn't matter. The economics are still going to rely on eyeballs and CFP shares. Streaming doesn't change that. In fact, streaming will take the one thing Duke and UNC have going for them .... a new market in NC. Absent that, the two schools have zero value to the SEC.
3. Streaming doesn't change this except make it worse, as I said before. With streaming, geographic value models go away. Now you have eyeballs and CFP shares. UNC and Duke provide nothing there. They drive no numbers. They won't earn any shares. They have small fanbases.
If money drives everything, give me one rational explanation as to what Duke and UNC bring to the SEC. Money only. And do it in 2036 when it will be a 100% streaming world.
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You are reading too much Twitter. Show me the intimate knowledge people and what they are saying about the GOR. A bunch of idiots on Twitter who don't know anything.
You aren't giving anyone a peak at anything. You are pulling some shit out of your ass - which might luckily be right - but it's not like you know anything. Today, the odds are in favor or the GOR being upheld. It won't happen fast as the ACC is in a death match. If FSU wants to come up with $550 million dollars, I suppose they can do that, but the math doesn't work on that.
No one was saying that about the B1G, FFS. Many of us here are on the record saying they were going to grab UO and UW. Just look it up.
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Are you implying that ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX will no longer exist or no longer carry sports on broadcast tv?
They lead the cable, satellite, and streaming viewership numbers by a mile. They're not giving that up.