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Argue with your mama...I'll luckily be right...again
The Official SEC thread
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Argue with your mama...I'll luckily be right...again
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If you want to talk about me, you can @ me.
LOL, I can't take you seriously when you say that Duke basketball = Alabama football. GTFOH. Please, I beg you to show me one article, some math, or something that makes you think Duke basketball is anywhere close to as profitable as Alabama football. That must be one of the dumbest things ever typed on this site.
And then you put me down, that "it's too big for me." Do you realize how stupid you look? I am one of the most open people here - you show me facts that basketball is going to drive anything close to the revenue of CFB, and I'll admit I am wrong. You haven't shown one thing - not a damn thing - to support your contention. I've shown figures that make your statement laughable.
You type like I am the narrow-minded one here when it's you that are on a limb trying to justify Duke - fucking Duke - getting a full SEC share because of the huge fanbase and basketball revenue. Someone is small or narrow-minded here, and it's not me.
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Here is another counter ... part of the big money in CFB are the CFP shares or units. While March Madness makes about $1 billion, and the CFP will make $1.3 billion, the money in basketball has to be split way more ways. There are at least 64+ teams in the tournament, while there will be 12 in CFB. Sure, there are more games in March Madness - way more - but they bring in way less on a per-game basis. So, no, Duke and UNC aren't going to suddenly bring in enough March Madness money to justify a full SEC share or to get in the SEC at all.
Because @Wild Turkey won't ever show any facts to back up his supposition, I'll @ him and lay out some. In 2022 the ACC did the best of all conferences. That earned them, wait for it, $36.4 million in money. A single CFP unit will be worth that. Now, it's true that the NCAA makes a ton of money on March Madness, but very little of it gets back to the conferences/teams. And if the SEC/B1G Alliance tried to run March Madness, maybe they could make more. But to do that they would have to piss everyone off by breaking up MM, they would have to eliminate all teams other than P4 or P2 teams which would damage what makes MM great, or they could try to run a big tournament but not pay all the money out to D2, D3, etc. schools like the NCAA does now. I am sure that would go over great when all those sports collapse due to lack of funding.
But hey, Duke helped generate $34 million for the whole fucking ACC - by all means, add them to the SEC and give them $100 million a year.
March Madness Daily: ACC, Big Ten Earn $36.4 million From Tourney
The Atlantic Coast Conference’s strong performance in this year’s March Madness will put roughly $36.4 million in the conference’s coffers over the next six years. The ACC qualified five teams in t…
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Let me try to simplify it because you are having such a difficult time.
Forget revenue for a second and think about national number of fans.
Alabama football is estimated through studies to have around 5.34 million fans. (Ohio State is estimated at 11.26 million which is the highest with ND coming in second at 8.21).
I can’t find a study that shows the same thing for basketball but did find where Duke averages almost 16K fans at opposing team courts when playing on the road and 19,261 when at a neutral site. That means they have a massive following because those are just people that are traveling. It’s fair to say that there is probably close to 5mm overall Duke fans are out there considering their history and success.
Now if you package a streaming service for ALL sports and you have the relatively the same number of fans (AL population 5mm and NC population 10mm) then it’s reasonable that you are going to get a similar subscription ratio of the pool of fans.
That means Duke would bring in the same amount of subscribers as Alabama would.
Are you with me on the above before we move forward?
Yes or no will suffice.
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@Wild Turkey
I'll just leave this from The Athletic to wrap this up on my end. Please feel free to show how all this is wrong and Duke will earn its way into the SEC:
How nervous should we Duke fans be re: re-alignment? There is very little to do, but reading the tea leaves it seems that Duke is more likely to be on the outside looking in (of the two mega conferences) once it all shakes out. Besides the financial hit that would imply, I would hate to lose out on so many rivalry games. What’s your read/feeling regarding Duke’s standing? — Jose C.
You said it, Jose, not me. But you’re right. Conference realignment, at present, isn’t tracking in a way that favors the Blue Devils.
Without rehashing too many details, this latest round of realignment — spurred by Texas and Oklahoma’s move to the SEC, and further amplified by USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten — is all about television revenue. Currently, the SEC and Big Ten outpace every other major conference in that regard … and it’s not super close. Through its contract with ESPN, each SEC member school received an average distribution of $54.6 million for the 2020-21 fiscal year, according to financial disclosure forms. During the same time frame, FOX paid Big Ten members an average distribution of $46.1 million. Then there’s the ACC, whose member schools received a comparatively-low $36.1 million average distribution, despite record revenue as a result of Notre Dame’s temporary, COVID-19-induced conference membership.
I’m no math whiz, but even I know that lagging $10-18 million per year behind your conference counterparts probably isn’t best for business.
And that’s just the deficit before the SEC and Big Ten get their megabucks media contracts in 2024, too. It’s not inconceivable, based on estimates provided to The Athletic, that in the next decade, those two superconferences will be paying their member schools annual distributions double (or even triple) what the ACC is.
The reason for the gap is obvious: each league’s football prowess (or lack thereof). Football is king in the modern media landscape; NFL games top the totem pole of live TV events that command major viewership, but college football isn’t far behind. No surprise, then, that networks pay by the boatload for that inventory. But what about men’s basketball, Duke fans will ask. The sad truth is, even a men’s basketball brand as valuable as Duke’s doesn’t stack up in the broader college sports universe. Duke basketball generated about $22.5 million dollars during the 2020-21 fiscal year, per tax documents — more than half of which (roughly $12.5 million) Mike Krzyzewski earned in salary and deferred payments — but that’s pennies compared to even middling college football programs. For reference: Duke’s rival, North Carolina, saw its football program generate roughly $44.4 million in revenue over that same 2020-21 fiscal year. Obviously, Duke men’s basketball is, and historically has been, a more successful and notable program than UNC football … and yet, it almost got doubled up revenue-wise all the same. That is why football is king, and why Duke finds itself in such a perilous position.
Television revenue is tied to success, obviously, but it’s also tied to viewership. They’re not mutually exclusive, either; you can have success without crazy viewership (hello, Wake Forest), same as you can have bad teams with rabid fan bases (looking at you, Washington State). The most valuable programs have both. Duke, unfortunately, has neither. Per my colleague Andy Staples, no ACC school participated in fewer games from 2015-19 and 2021 with over one million viewers than Duke did. (For reference, Clemson topped that list with 34 such games, to give you a quantitative idea of how far apart the two programs are.) It’s not a stretch to say that Duke, which has gone 10-25 the last three seasons, is arguably the ACC’s least-valuable football program. Athletic director Nina King is doing the right things and committing resources to improve that, but it’s not an overnight fix. That’s bad news during conference realignment, where only schools who provide more value than their expected annual media rights distribution will be sought-after by the SEC or Big Ten. Ideally, Duke’s men’s basketball team is the sort of cherry on top that entices a conference to add a member … but not if that potential member is a net-negative in football. Unfortunately, any way you shake the basketball side of things, it’s a nonstarter as long as football lags so far behind.
With all that in mind, what happens with Duke? For the time being, probably nothing. The ACC’s grant of rights runs through 2036, meaning every member school’s media rights are basically locked until then. Without exaggeration, it’s the only thing keeping the conference together. But it’s also in Duke’s best interest that things stay that way, because the alternative isn’t ideal. Just look to the Pac-12 for proof; USC and UCLA were deemed valuable enough to be poached, which, great for them. But look at the Pac-12 schools left behind, from Oregon and Washington down on to Oregon State and Cal. They’re left scrambling, suddenly down their two most lucrative league partners and without clear direction of what’s next. Do they try adding teams, none of whom carry UCLA or USC’s cachet, to rebuild their conference? Or read the writing on the walls and bail for greener pastures, if that’s even feasible? Now re-think that situation, except sub “Clemson and UNC” for “USC and UCLA” — and then sub the leftovers for the ACC’s. It’s not a place Duke wants to be, that’s for sure.
If there’s any silver lining here, it’s that time seems to be on Duke’s side. The ACC grant of rights might eventually be challenged in courts, but that’s months or even years away; there’s a reason Oklahoma, Texas, USC, and UCLA all decided to wait theirs out until 2024, rather than leave early and risk a costly, uncertain litigation. But with each passing year, the cost of leaving early drops, and the incentive to join the SEC or Big Ten grows — and eventually, someone will be tempted enough by the money to take that gamble in court. Duke has that much time, however long it ends up being, to get its football program back on an upward trajectory. That (and continued men’s basketball excellence) is the best hope for the Blue Devils landing on their feet when the conference realignment dust settles.
theathletic.com
I'll just leave this from The Athletic to wrap this up on my end. Please feel free to show how all this is wrong and Duke will earn its way into the SEC:
How nervous should we Duke fans be re: re-alignment? There is very little to do, but reading the tea leaves it seems that Duke is more likely to be on the outside looking in (of the two mega conferences) once it all shakes out. Besides the financial hit that would imply, I would hate to lose out on so many rivalry games. What’s your read/feeling regarding Duke’s standing? — Jose C.
You said it, Jose, not me. But you’re right. Conference realignment, at present, isn’t tracking in a way that favors the Blue Devils.
Without rehashing too many details, this latest round of realignment — spurred by Texas and Oklahoma’s move to the SEC, and further amplified by USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten — is all about television revenue. Currently, the SEC and Big Ten outpace every other major conference in that regard … and it’s not super close. Through its contract with ESPN, each SEC member school received an average distribution of $54.6 million for the 2020-21 fiscal year, according to financial disclosure forms. During the same time frame, FOX paid Big Ten members an average distribution of $46.1 million. Then there’s the ACC, whose member schools received a comparatively-low $36.1 million average distribution, despite record revenue as a result of Notre Dame’s temporary, COVID-19-induced conference membership.
I’m no math whiz, but even I know that lagging $10-18 million per year behind your conference counterparts probably isn’t best for business.
And that’s just the deficit before the SEC and Big Ten get their megabucks media contracts in 2024, too. It’s not inconceivable, based on estimates provided to The Athletic, that in the next decade, those two superconferences will be paying their member schools annual distributions double (or even triple) what the ACC is.
The reason for the gap is obvious: each league’s football prowess (or lack thereof). Football is king in the modern media landscape; NFL games top the totem pole of live TV events that command major viewership, but college football isn’t far behind. No surprise, then, that networks pay by the boatload for that inventory. But what about men’s basketball, Duke fans will ask. The sad truth is, even a men’s basketball brand as valuable as Duke’s doesn’t stack up in the broader college sports universe. Duke basketball generated about $22.5 million dollars during the 2020-21 fiscal year, per tax documents — more than half of which (roughly $12.5 million) Mike Krzyzewski earned in salary and deferred payments — but that’s pennies compared to even middling college football programs. For reference: Duke’s rival, North Carolina, saw its football program generate roughly $44.4 million in revenue over that same 2020-21 fiscal year. Obviously, Duke men’s basketball is, and historically has been, a more successful and notable program than UNC football … and yet, it almost got doubled up revenue-wise all the same. That is why football is king, and why Duke finds itself in such a perilous position.
Television revenue is tied to success, obviously, but it’s also tied to viewership. They’re not mutually exclusive, either; you can have success without crazy viewership (hello, Wake Forest), same as you can have bad teams with rabid fan bases (looking at you, Washington State). The most valuable programs have both. Duke, unfortunately, has neither. Per my colleague Andy Staples, no ACC school participated in fewer games from 2015-19 and 2021 with over one million viewers than Duke did. (For reference, Clemson topped that list with 34 such games, to give you a quantitative idea of how far apart the two programs are.) It’s not a stretch to say that Duke, which has gone 10-25 the last three seasons, is arguably the ACC’s least-valuable football program. Athletic director Nina King is doing the right things and committing resources to improve that, but it’s not an overnight fix. That’s bad news during conference realignment, where only schools who provide more value than their expected annual media rights distribution will be sought-after by the SEC or Big Ten. Ideally, Duke’s men’s basketball team is the sort of cherry on top that entices a conference to add a member … but not if that potential member is a net-negative in football. Unfortunately, any way you shake the basketball side of things, it’s a nonstarter as long as football lags so far behind.
With all that in mind, what happens with Duke? For the time being, probably nothing. The ACC’s grant of rights runs through 2036, meaning every member school’s media rights are basically locked until then. Without exaggeration, it’s the only thing keeping the conference together. But it’s also in Duke’s best interest that things stay that way, because the alternative isn’t ideal. Just look to the Pac-12 for proof; USC and UCLA were deemed valuable enough to be poached, which, great for them. But look at the Pac-12 schools left behind, from Oregon and Washington down on to Oregon State and Cal. They’re left scrambling, suddenly down their two most lucrative league partners and without clear direction of what’s next. Do they try adding teams, none of whom carry UCLA or USC’s cachet, to rebuild their conference? Or read the writing on the walls and bail for greener pastures, if that’s even feasible? Now re-think that situation, except sub “Clemson and UNC” for “USC and UCLA” — and then sub the leftovers for the ACC’s. It’s not a place Duke wants to be, that’s for sure.
If there’s any silver lining here, it’s that time seems to be on Duke’s side. The ACC grant of rights might eventually be challenged in courts, but that’s months or even years away; there’s a reason Oklahoma, Texas, USC, and UCLA all decided to wait theirs out until 2024, rather than leave early and risk a costly, uncertain litigation. But with each passing year, the cost of leaving early drops, and the incentive to join the SEC or Big Ten grows — and eventually, someone will be tempted enough by the money to take that gamble in court. Duke has that much time, however long it ends up being, to get its football program back on an upward trajectory. That (and continued men’s basketball excellence) is the best hope for the Blue Devils landing on their feet when the conference realignment dust settles.
Will conference realignment leave Duke behind? Blue Devils mailbag
Brendan Marks answers subscribers' questions about the Blue Devils, including what to expect from Dereck Lively II and the transfers.
theathletic.com
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Old model thinking.@Wild Turkey
I'll just leave this from The Athletic to wrap this up on my end. Please feel free to show how all this is wrong and Duke will earn its way into the SEC:
How nervous should we Duke fans be re: re-alignment? There is very little to do, but reading the tea leaves it seems that Duke is more likely to be on the outside looking in (of the two mega conferences) once it all shakes out. Besides the financial hit that would imply, I would hate to lose out on so many rivalry games. What’s your read/feeling regarding Duke’s standing? — Jose C.
You said it, Jose, not me. But you’re right. Conference realignment, at present, isn’t tracking in a way that favors the Blue Devils.
Without rehashing too many details, this latest round of realignment — spurred by Texas and Oklahoma’s move to the SEC, and further amplified by USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten — is all about television revenue. Currently, the SEC and Big Ten outpace every other major conference in that regard … and it’s not super close. Through its contract with ESPN, each SEC member school received an average distribution of $54.6 million for the 2020-21 fiscal year, according to financial disclosure forms. During the same time frame, FOX paid Big Ten members an average distribution of $46.1 million. Then there’s the ACC, whose member schools received a comparatively-low $36.1 million average distribution, despite record revenue as a result of Notre Dame’s temporary, COVID-19-induced conference membership.
I’m no math whiz, but even I know that lagging $10-18 million per year behind your conference counterparts probably isn’t best for business.
And that’s just the deficit before the SEC and Big Ten get their megabucks media contracts in 2024, too. It’s not inconceivable, based on estimates provided to The Athletic, that in the next decade, those two superconferences will be paying their member schools annual distributions double (or even triple) what the ACC is.
The reason for the gap is obvious: each league’s football prowess (or lack thereof). Football is king in the modern media landscape; NFL games top the totem pole of live TV events that command major viewership, but college football isn’t far behind. No surprise, then, that networks pay by the boatload for that inventory. But what about men’s basketball, Duke fans will ask. The sad truth is, even a men’s basketball brand as valuable as Duke’s doesn’t stack up in the broader college sports universe. Duke basketball generated about $22.5 million dollars during the 2020-21 fiscal year, per tax documents — more than half of which (roughly $12.5 million) Mike Krzyzewski earned in salary and deferred payments — but that’s pennies compared to even middling college football programs. For reference: Duke’s rival, North Carolina, saw its football program generate roughly $44.4 million in revenue over that same 2020-21 fiscal year. Obviously, Duke men’s basketball is, and historically has been, a more successful and notable program than UNC football … and yet, it almost got doubled up revenue-wise all the same. That is why football is king, and why Duke finds itself in such a perilous position.
Television revenue is tied to success, obviously, but it’s also tied to viewership. They’re not mutually exclusive, either; you can have success without crazy viewership (hello, Wake Forest), same as you can have bad teams with rabid fan bases (looking at you, Washington State). The most valuable programs have both. Duke, unfortunately, has neither. Per my colleague Andy Staples, no ACC school participated in fewer games from 2015-19 and 2021 with over one million viewers than Duke did. (For reference, Clemson topped that list with 34 such games, to give you a quantitative idea of how far apart the two programs are.) It’s not a stretch to say that Duke, which has gone 10-25 the last three seasons, is arguably the ACC’s least-valuable football program. Athletic director Nina King is doing the right things and committing resources to improve that, but it’s not an overnight fix. That’s bad news during conference realignment, where only schools who provide more value than their expected annual media rights distribution will be sought-after by the SEC or Big Ten. Ideally, Duke’s men’s basketball team is the sort of cherry on top that entices a conference to add a member … but not if that potential member is a net-negative in football. Unfortunately, any way you shake the basketball side of things, it’s a nonstarter as long as football lags so far behind.
With all that in mind, what happens with Duke? For the time being, probably nothing. The ACC’s grant of rights runs through 2036, meaning every member school’s media rights are basically locked until then. Without exaggeration, it’s the only thing keeping the conference together. But it’s also in Duke’s best interest that things stay that way, because the alternative isn’t ideal. Just look to the Pac-12 for proof; USC and UCLA were deemed valuable enough to be poached, which, great for them. But look at the Pac-12 schools left behind, from Oregon and Washington down on to Oregon State and Cal. They’re left scrambling, suddenly down their two most lucrative league partners and without clear direction of what’s next. Do they try adding teams, none of whom carry UCLA or USC’s cachet, to rebuild their conference? Or read the writing on the walls and bail for greener pastures, if that’s even feasible? Now re-think that situation, except sub “Clemson and UNC” for “USC and UCLA” — and then sub the leftovers for the ACC’s. It’s not a place Duke wants to be, that’s for sure.
If there’s any silver lining here, it’s that time seems to be on Duke’s side. The ACC grant of rights might eventually be challenged in courts, but that’s months or even years away; there’s a reason Oklahoma, Texas, USC, and UCLA all decided to wait theirs out until 2024, rather than leave early and risk a costly, uncertain litigation. But with each passing year, the cost of leaving early drops, and the incentive to join the SEC or Big Ten grows — and eventually, someone will be tempted enough by the money to take that gamble in court. Duke has that much time, however long it ends up being, to get its football program back on an upward trajectory. That (and continued men’s basketball excellence) is the best hope for the Blue Devils landing on their feet when the conference realignment dust settles.
Will conference realignment leave Duke behind? Blue Devils mailbag
Brendan Marks answers subscribers' questions about the Blue Devils, including what to expect from Dereck Lively II and the transfers.
See my post and I will try and get you to understand.
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Here, I did the maffs.
Week 1
Duke/Arizona (1.2 mil)
Duke/Dartmouth (?? ACCN)
Week 2
Duke/Michigan St (1.5 mil)
Duke/Bucknell (?? ACCN)
Week 3
Duke/La Salle (?? ACCN)
Duke/So Indiana (?? ACCN)
Week 4
Duke/Arkansas (1.4 mil)
Duke/GA Tech (?? CW)
Week 5
Duke/Charlotte (240,000)
Week 6
Duke/Hofstra (370,000)
Week 7
Duke/Baylor (1.2 mil)
Week 8
Duke/Queens (382,000)
Week 9
Duke/Syracuse (1.2 mil)
Duke/Notre Dame (?? ACCN)
Week 10
Duke/Pitt (717,000)
Duke/Ga Tech (?? ACCN)
Week 11
Duke/Pitt (?? ACCN)
Week 12
Duke/Louisville (?? ACCN)
Duke/Clemson (1.3 mil)
Week 13
Duke/VA Tech (895,000)
Duke/N Carolina (3.2 mil)
Data is not out for Week 14 (i.e. Feb 5th and beyond)
So basically 13.6 million countable viewers with 8 unrated games on the ACC Network and 1 unrated game on CW.
Another 4 to 5 weeks of data to come in (Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest, Florida St, Miami, Wake Forest, Louisville, Virginia, N.C. State, North Carolina).
Not counting ACC Tournament or NCAA Tournament viewers.
Alabama Football
Alabama/Middle Tenn (?? SECN)
Alabama/Texas (8.76 mil)
Alabama/S. Florida (4.84 mil)
Alabama/Ole Miss (4.61 mil)
Alabama/Miss St (3.35 mil)
Alabama/Tex A&M (7.23 mil)
Alabama/Arkansas (3.43 mil)
Alabama/Tennessee (8.01 mil)
Alabama/LSU (8.82 mil)
Alabama/Kentucky (2.76 mil)
Alabama/Chattanooga (?? SECN+)
Alabama/Auburn (9.09 mil)
Alabama/Georgia CCG (17.52 mil)
Alabama/Michigan (27.76 mil)
106.18 million viewers not counting the two unreported SECN games.
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Get out of here ... show me one article to support your "new model thinking." One. That's it. One. That article was written a year and half ago. Revenue in 2036 will still be generated by eyeballs watching games and ad revenue. Duke ain't in the same league as SEC teams not named Vanderbilt.
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LOL .. watch it ... @Wild Turkey just about to get in here with "old school economics" thinking.
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Well now that I've taken the time to crunch the numbers I know.
We can legit say Alabama will have twice as many viewers (conservative estimate) and it's highly likely the cost to advertise during an Alabama football game is considerably higher than to advertise during a typical Duke basketball game.
Advertising is what's paying these media rights bills. i.e. Football is what's paying these media rights bills.
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Check out the amount of CFP money CFB conferences get v. CBB conferences. It's light years away. The ACC, as a conference, made 34 million in 2022. The entire conference, and they were the highest performing conference that year. In the new CFP, conferences will make in the hundreds of millions, and Duke will never contribute a dime of CFP money.
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ACC already suggesting FSU could buy back their TV rights.
Settlement coming before the start of the 2026 season.
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ACC already suggesting FSU could buy back their TV rights.
Settlement coming before the start of the 2026 season.
Ummm. I think the vast majority of us already knew that.
Notice the ACC didn't put a figure there. That figure is up near $500 million.
Nobody has said 'FSU can't leave'. Not even the GOR says that. Just that leaving will be costly.
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ACC already suggesting FSU could buy back their TV rights.
Settlement coming before the start of the 2026 season.
Hell, I said that above, come up with 500 million plus. That’s the problem. They would be paying all the money they think they are going to get from the B1G. You act like that easy to do.
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Hey now.
What's important is Matt Baker getting his clicks, likes, and shares from duckboy telling us what we've previously discussed at length in other threads (i.e. The rules set forth in the GOR).
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On the bright side that 'buyback' is fluid.
By 2030 it'll be more manageable for just under $250 million.
It's like a silver lining en sech.
By 2030 it'll be more manageable for just under $250 million.
It's like a silver lining en sech.
i'll continue to overpay for cable!!
Just gotta love a good Georgia/Auburn feud!
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Speaking of UGA/AU, where dafuk is @Illustrious Potentate ? Don't remember him posting lately.