Straight seeding model expected for 2025 CFP

[ericd7633]

They absolutely were needed to approve this for 2025. And for now they can’t be cut out of the process for fear of antitrust lawsuits, hence the Group of 5 bid. That’s why I’m wondering (hoping at least for the B12) something was negotiated to essentially give up this bye this year.

The B12 didn't give up their bye. They can still earn one if someone is good enough.

 

[ralphiewvu]

The B12 didn't give up their bye. They can still earn one if someone is good enough.

While technically they didn’t, it’s more likely then not that ether the ACC, B12 or BOTH aren’t getting a bye with this new change for 2025. A 1 loss champion isn’t getting the benefit of the doubt over the SEC, B1G or ND. Thats why I’m hoping something was negotiated.

 

[OlyDuck]

While technically they didn’t, it’s more likely then not that ether the ACC, B12 or BOTH aren’t getting a bye with this new change for 2025. A 1 loss champion isn’t getting the benefit of the doubt over the SEC, B1G or ND. Thats why I’m hoping something was negotiated.

I think a 1 loss Clemson might get in over non champs from SEC or Big and over ND if they beat ND. but prob not any other ACC or Big XII school. It thought maybe FSU but after 2 years ago not sure

 

[ericd7633]

While technically they didn’t, it’s more likely then not that ether the ACC, B12 or BOTH aren’t getting a bye with this new change for 2025. A 1 loss champion isn’t getting the benefit of the doubt over the SEC, B1G or ND. Thats why I’m hoping something was negotiated.

I would agree it's unlikely, but they can still earn one. If Oklahoma State finished with 1 loss this upcoming season, they'd be a top 4 team I'd guess.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

For this to pass it needed to be unanimous is that correct? Why would at the very least the B12 and ACC almost assuredly agree take away a bye from (at least one of) themselves in 2025 without getting anything tangible in 2026 and beyond? Maybe it's something more as it pertains to governance??

But as it's looking right now the ACC/B12 has a seat at this A4 table which looks like rulings will have to be unanimous. They might not have the same influence but as it's looking they'll have some.

My hope is that the ACC/B12 negotiated a 3rd spot for ether or. Call it the 2.5 spot. The third team for each plays on conference champ week for that spot.

Because this isn't a big ask, and they have very little leverage. The P2 would have simply, said, ok, we'll do it the same way for one more year, but we will remember you weren't open to compromise. Now, they at least get $4 million if they would have gotten a bye based on the past rules. That's not a bad get.

I think the A4 table is different from the CFP table. The P2 will have a lot of control there. They have already forced unequal payments.

Make your argument for why the ACC, and especially the B12 should get 3 AQs. I am interested to hear your rational.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

no anyone who has to travel to Hawaii at any time in the season can schedule a 13th game. even the other conference teams. but there has to be a Hawaii road game. Hosting Hawaii does not allow the 13th game.

Plus the whole Hawaii thing meant the 13th game was played week 0. I have a feeling that week 0 will soon be week 1.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think a 1 loss Clemson might get in over non champs from SEC or Big and over ND if they beat ND. but prob not any other ACC or Big XII school. It thought maybe FSU but after 2 years ago not sure

The teams in the ACC that have a chance at this point in time are Miami, FSU, Clemson, SMU, and Louisville. Maybe UNC under Belichek. That is why they can argue for 3, even though I think that is ambitious.

I have no idea who the B12 is going to hang their hats on. BYU, ASU, WV, Utah? It gets thin rather quickly.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

The B12 didn't give up their bye. They can still earn one if someone is good enough.

Everyone gave up their auto-byes. That's the change. And that affects the B12, ACC, and G5 more than the SEC and B1G.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I think a 1 loss Clemson might get in over non champs from SEC or Big and over ND if they beat ND. but prob not any other ACC or Big XII school. It thought maybe FSU but after 2 years ago not sure

Fair point on Clemson, I’m sure there could be an argument for FSU but anyone else from those two conferences no chance.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I would agree it's unlikely, but they can still earn one. If Oklahoma State finished with 1 loss this upcoming season, they'd be a top 4 team I'd guess.

Yeah I have a hard time seeing a 1 loss Okie Junior getting the nod over the SEC and B1G champ and ND, even if all have 2 loses. The earn part is up for interpretation. An ACC/B12 champ not named Clemson or FSU likely have to go undefeated to get a better seed then the conferences/teams I listed.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Because this isn't a big ask, and they have very little leverage. The P2 would have simply, said, ok, we'll do it the same way for one more year, but we will remember you weren't open to compromise. Now, they at least get $4 million if they would have gotten a bye based on the past rules. That's not a bad get.

I think the A4 table is different from the CFP table. The P2 will have a lot of control there. They have already forced unequal payments.

Make your argument for why the ACC, and especially the B12 should get 3 AQs. I am interested to hear your rational.

You say it yourself in the second paragraph that the P2 have a lot of control at this A4 table. So why the hell would the ACC/B12 agree to this, it’s not like they have some control for 2026 and beyond? We both agree it’ll be whatever the SEC/B1G want. I understand SEC/B1G made the pay the same whether they make the top 4 or not for 2025 but it’s still very stupid imo for ACC/B12 to accept this without some other concessions. (And it’s starting to feel like they didn’t)

I want the chance at a 3rd AQ first and foremost because it gives my team a better opportunity to make this damn thing. (I know I’m wishful thinking here). But secondly I want it because it minimizes the committees ability to show bias for big brands and ratings. They would only have to pick 2 at large spots and really it’s only 1 if ND has a good year. I wish to minimize the committees opinion as much as possible.

 

[Wild Turkey]

They absolutely were needed to approve this for 2025. And for now they can’t be cut out of the process for fear of antitrust lawsuits, hence the Group of 5 bid. That’s why I’m wondering (hoping at least for the B12) something was negotiated to essentially give up this bye this year.

What you are not taking into account is that at any time the SEC and B1G can pull out of the Playoffs and create their own post season. Once that happens they automatically become tier one and no one can do anything about it.

It’s better for the G5 to play ball for now and come up with a contingency plan.

 

[Thiefery]

Everyone gave up their auto-byes. That's the change. And that affects the B12, ACC, and G5 more than the SEC and B1G.

this is good thing.. i felt bad for Oregon for being the top seed and having the toughest matchup in their first game..

 

[Knight&Day]

this is good thing.. i felt bad for Oregon for being the top seed and having the toughest matchup in their first game..

I haven’t been following the thread. But, yeah, what the Texas homer said 100%.

A post-UM, extra-spicy OHST + Ducks get 3+ weeks off + same season rematch = God must really hate Oregon fans.

 

[Thiefery]

I haven’t been following the thread. But, yeah, what the Texas homer said 100%.

A post-UM, extra-spicy OHST + Ducks get 3+ weeks off + same season rematch = God must really hate Oregon fans.

atleast he hasn't placed them in the Big12, am i right??

 

[ralphiewvu]

What you are not taking into account is that at any time the SEC and B1G can pull out of the Playoffs and create their own post season. Once that happens they automatically become tier one and no one can do anything about it.

It’s better for the G5 to play ball for now and come up with a contingency plan.

There is a ton of risk doing that. I know you think it wouldn't hurt ratings at all but there seriously will be a ton people that won't tune in. I used to be afraid of that but the more it looks like it the more it feels like the P2 won't take that chance of pulling away.

 

[Thiefery]

There is a ton of risk doing that. I know you think it wouldn't hurt ratings at all but there seriously will be a ton people that won't tune in. I used to be afraid of that but the more it looks like it the more it feels like the P2 won't take that chance of pulling away.

Did you ask Texas how they feel about it??

 

[Deep Creek]

The teams in the ACC that have a chance at this point in time are Miami, FSU, Clemson, SMU, and Louisville. Maybe UNC under Belichek. That is why they can argue for 3, even though I think that is ambitious.

I have no idea who the B12 is going to hang their hats on. BYU, ASU, WV, Utah? It gets thin rather quickly.

No one else does either. Last year ASU was picked toward the bottom and K-State, Okie Lite, Utah were picked at the top. ASU, Colorado and BYU toward the bottom. Well that was upside down! Only school they got exactly correct was TCU and West Virginia, ISU, Texas Tech were just one game off.

Maybe not as extreme but I think it will probably be similar this year.

2024 Predictions (24/7)
8-1 K-State
7-2 OK State, Utah
6-3 West Virginia, ISU, TCU, Kansas, UCF
5-4 Arizona, Texas Tech
3-6 Baylor
2-7 Colorado, Cincy, BYU
1-8 ASU
0-9 Houston

2024 Final Standings
7-2 ASU, ISU, BYU, Colorado
6-3 Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech
5-4 K-State, West Virginia
4-5 Kansas
3-6 Cincy, Houston
2-7 Utah, Arizona, UCF
0-9 OK State

 

[Deep Creek]

What you are not taking into account is that at any time the SEC and B1G can pull out of the Playoffs and create their own post season. Once that happens they automatically become tier one and no one can do anything about it.

It’s better for the G5 to play ball for now and come up with a contingency plan.

They need to go ahead and do it instead of pussyfooting around.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Did you ask Texas how they feel about it??

I asked Sankey, he said Texas will fall in line.