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Are they not already Cincy/Memphis level?
Wouldn't Cincy/Memphis be challenging the Orphan 8 (and even Texas) for #2 in the Big 12?
Either the Orphan 8 were a P5 'grind' or they weren't.
They don't mysteriously become G5 level because a (73 - 60) team for the past 11 years and a perennial CFP teams that's been feasting on those teams leave, do they?
I think it has to do with $$$$. Once the financial reality starts to take effect, the remaining Big12 teams won't be able to hold on to P5 Coaching Talent, maintain P5 facilities, etc. like they have been now (or at least some of them *looking at Kansas*).
So for 2-3 years after OU and Texas leave, they will still likely be competitive.
If they add some quality teams like the 4 listed, I can see them being like the Big East was from 2004 until it went defunct. A semi-P5 Conference.
Big12 desperately needs the 12-team playoff to stay relevant.