A B1G (and CFP) What If...

[Kburjr]

It's nice to play what if, but the Eat your own season is just starting.

That said, what if Wisconsin beats Ohio State, runs the table, Ohio State wins their remaining games and then UW and OSU play a tight game in the B1G CG?

 

[osubuckeye89]

I think PSU would also be left out in that discussion, even if they're 12-1 and conf champs, simply because the B1GW doesn't have a legit contender so them going 1-1 vs OSU/mich would be their only leg to stand on.

Penn State would really need Wisconsin to finish 10-2 or even beat Ohio State and be 11-1 going into the B1G title. Even then the B1G West is so weak overall they would just get the "Oh its just Wisconsin who cares" approach/

 

[osubuckeye89]

It's nice to play what if, but the Eat your own season is just starting.

That said, what if Wisconsin beats Ohio State, runs the table, Ohio State wins their remaining games and then UW and OSU play a tight game in the B1G CG?

Wisconsin would definitely need to win out and be the B1G champ. They'd probably get in then, having beat Ohio State twice.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I said a 12-1 UGA as a non SEC Champion. Meaning you lose the SECCG. And yeah, those teams are ranked towards the back half of the top 25, but there is no way they all remain ranked. My guess is only one of TN, KY and Missouri stay ranked. Hell TN shouldn't even be ranked now.

Also, there is a reason I said OSU, not Michigan. Michigan doesn't have an ND win, and doesn't get to play Wisconsin. Michigan's schedule is shit, outside of PSU and OSU.

Also, beating Duke is a hell of let better than anything UGA has done this year.

LOL at Duke ... they would lose to Auburn and/or USCjr. I know you really want Duke to be good, but let's be real you barely beat Duke.

Keep in mind that I've stated here we are good team but not an elite team. We are a work in progress. And I can't defend our OOC other than to say we had OU scheduled. But that doesn't matter ... we didn't get to play them.

All that said, I refuted your post which said "UGA wouldn't have a top 20 win more than likely." To the contrary, we very likely will have at least 2. Even if we lose the SECCG, we will have won against UTjr, Ky, and Ole Miss. I am guessing 2 of the 3 end up with 3 or less losses, which puts them in the top 20.

As to whether we would get in at 12-1 when not winning the SECCG it would depend on a ton over other variables. Is it a 2 loss team that beats us? How many other 12-1 teams are there? How did we do against Ky, Ole Miss, and UTjr? How close was the SECCG. With a 4-team CFP, if there are 4 other conference champs that are 12-1, I would understand not getting in.

But dial back the crappy schedule talk ... let's see how some of these teams pan out.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I definitely think a 12-1 non-conf champ UGA would get in over a 1-loss OSU/PSU/michigan non-conf champ, you're right there. I wouldn't even necessarily disagree with it, depending on who the loss was to and how bad it was. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, I could see even an unbeaten FSU getting left out just due to how pedestrian they've looked, and how bad LSU has looked. Now, if there ended up being a 12-1 conf champ OSU, 13-0 FSU, 13-0 PAC champ, 12-1 Bama conf champ, and 12-1 UGA conf runner-up, that would be VERY interesting.

Will also depend on how Clemson looks going forward. The LSU win is not looking as good. The Clemson win is good, but Clemson is 2-2. Let's see how they finish up. Wild would be having Clemson beat FSU in the CCG.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I want 5 undefeated P5 champs, that would be the most interesting one to watch. Especially since we wouldn't be one of the ones sweating it out if the were in that undefeated club.

In this scenario the SEC 12-1 is getting left out. I don't think theres any way they could justify putting them in over a 12-1 conference champ Ohio State/Michigan.

Penn State however I don't think gets the same pull, they might may very well get left out of that 1 loss non champ UGA.

I agree ... if all that happens, a non-SECC UGA does not get in and shouldn't. Again, damn The Alliance ... we could have had 12 but for those fuckers.

 

[ericd7633]

LOL at Duke ... they would lose to Auburn and/or USCjr. I know you really want Duke to be good, but let's be real you barely beat Duke.

Keep in mind that I've stated here we are good team but not an elite team. We are a work in progress. And I can't defend our OOC other than to say we had OU scheduled. But that doesn't matter ... we didn't get to play them.

All that said, I refuted your post which said "UGA wouldn't have a top 20 win more than likely." To the contrary, we very likely will have at least 2. Even if we lose the SECCG, we will have won against UTjr, Ky, and Ole Miss. I am guessing 2 of the 3 end up with 3 or less losses, which puts them in the top 20.

As to whether we would get in at 12-1 when not winning the SECCG it would depend on a ton over other variables. Is it a 2 loss team that beats us? How many other 12-1 teams are there? How did we do against Ky, Ole Miss, and UTjr? How close was the SECCG. With a 4-team CFP, if there are 4 other conference champs that are 12-1, I would understand not getting in.

But dial back the crappy schedule talk ... let's see how some of these teams pan out.

I don't really care if Duke is good or not. But they are better than both South Carolina and Auburn. Those teams fucking suck man. What the hell have either of them actually done to make you think they are better than Duke?

We'll see how many games all those teams lose. TN hasn't played like a top 25 team, banking on them winning all their games outside of UGA/Bama doesn't seem likely to me. If any of them do it, it's probably Ole Miss and that's because their schedule is a complete joke the rest of the way.

Your schedule has been a joke thus far. Combine that with the fact your remaining schedule isn't even considered to be a top 25 toughest schedule remaining, on the whole, that's a bad schedule.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I don't really care if Duke is good or not. But they are better than both South Carolina and Auburn. Those teams fucking suck man. What the hell have either of them actually done to make you think they are better than Duke?

We'll see how many games all those teams lose. TN hasn't played like a top 25 team, banking on them winning all their games outside of UGA/Bama doesn't seem likely to me. If any of them do it, it's probably Ole Miss and that's because their schedule is a complete joke the rest of the way.

Your schedule has been a joke thus far. Combine that with the fact your remaining schedule isn't even considered to be a top 25 toughest schedule remaining, on the whole, that's a bad schedule.

Beat us when you play us ... complaining about our schedule is weak sauce. And discounting our schedule that we haven't played yet is even worse. You want to give Duke credit for being good but calling other programs garbage. C'mon man. You are better than this.

 

[Across The Field]

Will also depend on how Clemson looks going forward. The LSU win is not looking as good. The Clemson win is good, but Clemson is 2-2. Let's see how they finish up. Wild would be having Clemson beat FSU in the CCG.

I don't even think it's that wild to think. The ACC could completely implode on itself with some of the remaining matchups. I don't think any team in that conference is a surefire winner week in/week out.

 

[ericd7633]

Beat us when you play us ... complaining about our schedule is weak sauce. And discounting our schedule that we haven't played yet is even worse. You want to give Duke credit for being good but calling other programs garbage. C'mon man. You are better than this.

You're the one that LOL'd at Duke. I'm not even calling them good or anything. But they are better than Auburn and South Carolina. If you can make a case for either I'm open to it.

I was just quoting the remaining strength of schedule metric. It's not considered top 25. That could fluctuate based on your opponents beating their SECW counterparts, but it won't change that much. And your schedule has been weak:

Sagarin SOS: 98
Massey SOS: 71
Colley Matrix: 118
ESPN: 91

Nothing weak sauce about admitting something that is a fact.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Compare our schedule against UM's and tell me how it's more difficult.

I'm not touting UM's schedule at all. They haven't really played anybody. That said -- they've done nothing to make anyone think they aren't better than last year.

They have outscored teams 165-13 in the 1st 3 quarters of their games. Their starters or even their 2nd string have played very few snaps in the 4th quarter at all. Hence the reason for the season, the totals are 17-17 in the 4th quarter.

Coming into Nebraska -- they were one of the top rushing teams on the year. Michigan completely shut it down. They finished with 104 yards, but 75 of those yards were on one run at the end of the 4th quarter against Michigan's 3rd and 4th stringers. They had like 20 yards rushing thru the 1st 3 quarters.

Nebraska was at the top for rush defense -- Michigan ran for 250 yards.

So while Michigan has played a soft schedule -- they've dominated every facet of that schedule. They haven't been friendly to bettors though, as Michigan is 1-3 against the spread. Instead of running up the score -- Michigan has taken their starters out in the 3rd quarter or after the 3rd quarter ends. So be careful betting on Michigan.

 

[Thiefery]

I'm not touting UM's schedule at all. They haven't really played anybody. That said -- they've done nothing to make anyone think they aren't better than last year.

They have outscored teams 165-13 in the 1st 3 quarters of their games. Their starters or even their 2nd string have played very few snaps in the 4th quarter at all. Hence the reason for the season, the totals are 17-17 in the 4th quarter.

Coming into Nebraska -- they were one of the top rushing teams on the year. Michigan completely shut it down. They finished with 104 yards, but 75 of those yards were on one run at the end of the 4th quarter against Michigan's 3rd and 4th stringers. They had like 20 yards rushing thru the 1st 3 quarters.

Nebraska was at the top for rush defense -- Michigan ran for 250 yards.

So while Michigan has played a soft schedule -- they've dominated every facet of that schedule. They haven't been friendly to bettors though, as Michigan is 1-3 against the spread. Instead of running up the score -- Michigan has taken their starters out in the 3rd quarter or after the 3rd quarter ends. So be careful betting on Michigan.

that's a lot words to say...

your schedule sucks

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

You're the one that LOL'd at Duke. I'm not even calling them good or anything. But they are better than Auburn and South Carolina. If you can make a case for either I'm open to it.

I was just quoting the remaining strength of schedule metric. It's not considered top 25. That could fluctuate based on your opponents beating their SECW counterparts, but it won't change that much. And your schedule has been weak:

Sagarin SOS: 98
Massey SOS: 71
Colley Matrix: 118
ESPN: 91

Nothing weak sauce about admitting something that is a fact.

Since you led with Sagarin, I'll use that. Here are the SOS of the top teams and a few others we have talked about:

South Carolina - 1
Auburn - 35
Duke - 66
Note Dame - 54
UGA - 98

tOSU - 63
UM - 78
USC - 99
FSU - 16
Bama - 7
Washington - 40
Ore - 103
PSU - 34
Texas - 15
OU - 60

When I look at this, here is my conclusion:

- I am not sure why you are using this as something that is against UGA, and only UGA. I've stated our OOC is bad, and earlier this year I indicated our IC schedule looked lite. But I also stated we should wait to see what some teams look like later in the year - something you seem to reject. We still have OM, UTjr, and Ky all of whom are looking like top 25 teams. Then we will have the SECCG.

- Look at other top teams, 54, 63, 78, 99, 103, 60 - we are hardly the only teams to have a lite schedule.

- Bama, Texas, and FSU get credit for a better SOS so far, but Texas will drop off as the year progresses. FSU, too. Bama will stay tough. Who knows, it's too early.

- As for you pumping up Duke and putting down Auburn and USCjr as garbage, you seem to not want to look at SOS there. USCjr has the no. 1 toughest schedule, Auburn at 35. Duke is at 66.

My point has been that it is too early to try to make this something that is a big deal. Maybe it will be in the end. But you just don't know who is going to turn out to be any good this early. Duke could drop 4 games and your win there wouldn't look so good, etc.

You can go back and look at my posts - I thought at the beginning of the year we would have one of the easier schedules, certainly through week 4. And we did, and I was glad for it. We needed that to get reps for our new QB. But I also said you just don't know when a Ky gets good, or good forbid that Mizzou actually has a pulse. Let's see how it rounds out before making SOS a big deal.

And, we can't play ourselves, and that never helps the SOS.

 

[ericd7633]

Since you led with Sagarin, I'll use that. Here are the SOS of the top teams and a few others we have talked about:

South Carolina - 1
Auburn - 35
Duke - 66
Note Dame - 54
UGA - 98

tOSU - 63
UM - 78
USC - 99
FSU - 16
Bama - 7
Washington - 40
Ore - 103
PSU - 34
Texas - 15
OU - 60

When I look at this, here is my conclusion:

- I am not sure why you are using this as something that is against UGA, and only UGA. I've stated our OOC is bad, and earlier this year I indicated our IC schedule looked lite. But I also stated we should wait to see what some teams look like later in the year - something you seem to reject. We still have OM, UTjr, and Ky all of whom are looking like top 25 teams. Then we will have the SECCG.

- Look at other top teams, 54, 63, 78, 99, 103, 60 - we are hardly the only teams to have a lite schedule.

- Bama, Texas, and FSU get credit for a better SOS so far, but Texas will drop off as the year progresses. FSU, too. Bama will stay tough. Who knows, it's too early.

- As for you pumping up Duke and putting down Auburn and USCjr as garbage, you seem to not want to look at SOS there. USCjr has the no. 1 toughest schedule, Auburn at 35. Duke is at 66.

My point has been that it is too early to try to make this something that is a big deal. Maybe it will be in the end. But you just don't know who is going to turn out to be any good this early. Duke could drop 4 games and your win there wouldn't look so good, etc.

You can go back and look at my posts - I thought at the beginning of the year we would have one of the easier schedules, certainly through week 4. And we did, and I was glad for it. We needed that to get reps for our new QB. But I also said you just don't know when a Ky gets good, or good forbid that Mizzou actually has a pulse. Let's see how it rounds out before making SOS a big deal.

And, we can't play ourselves, and that never helps the SOS.

My whole point was that a 12-1 UGA with an SECCG loss shouldn't get in over an 11-1 OSU, because of SOS. OSU has played a better schedule and has a better remaining schedule. That's it, that's all I was saying and comparing. Yes, there is still a lot that could happen. But also a lot that could happen negatively on UGA's remaining schedule. Does KY beat UL? Does KY beat Bama? Does Missouri beat LSU? Does TN beat Texas A&M? Does South Carolina beat Clemson? Does FL beat FSU? If those 6 games go the way of helping UGA, that changes things for sure. As of now, projecting ahead the schedule doesn't look great, overall. The SEC has been too shitty OOC to receive the benefit of the doubt this year. The league has one good win OOC.

As for Duke, Auburn and South Carolina. Yes, South Carolina and Auburn have played more difficult schedules. But they've also looked like shit against those schedules. Neither have a good win(like Duke does against Clemson), and South Carolina has been blown out twice now already.

 

[Across The Field]

I'm not touting UM's schedule at all. They haven't really played anybody. That said -- they've done nothing to make anyone think they aren't better than last year.

They have outscored teams 165-13 in the 1st 3 quarters of their games. Their starters or even their 2nd string have played very few snaps in the 4th quarter at all. Hence the reason for the season, the totals are 17-17 in the 4th quarter.

Coming into Nebraska -- they were one of the top rushing teams on the year. Michigan completely shut it down. They finished with 104 yards, but 75 of those yards were on one run at the end of the 4th quarter against Michigan's 3rd and 4th stringers. They had like 20 yards rushing thru the 1st 3 quarters.

Nebraska was at the top for rush defense -- Michigan ran for 250 yards.

So while Michigan has played a soft schedule -- they've dominated every facet of that schedule. They haven't been friendly to bettors though, as Michigan is 1-3 against the spread. Instead of running up the score -- Michigan has taken their starters out in the 3rd quarter or after the 3rd quarter ends. So be careful betting on Michigan.

To be fair regarding Nebraska's rush offense and defense:
- michigan has a good rush defense, and Minnesota isn't awful. Nebraska's other three opponents (UNI, La Tech, Colorado) are all 105th or worse against the run.
- michigan obviously has a good rush offense. La Tech is mediocre. Minnesota's leading rusher only had one carry against Nebraska. UNI and Colorado are, again, two of the worst rushing teams in the entire nation. I was shocked to see Colorado is the 7th worst rush offense in the nation.

I don't think anyone is saying michigan is bad, but Nebraska isn't a great barometer.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

My whole point was that a 12-1 UGA with an SECCG loss shouldn't get in over an 11-1 OSU, because of SOS. OSU has played a better schedule and has a better remaining schedule. That's it, that's all I was saying and comparing. Yes, there is still a lot that could happen. But also a lot that could happen negatively on UGA's remaining schedule. Does KY beat UL? Does KY beat Bama? Does Missouri beat LSU? Does TN beat Texas A&M? Does South Carolina beat Clemson? Does FL beat FSU? If those 6 games go the way of helping UGA, that changes things for sure. As of now, projecting ahead the schedule doesn't look great, overall. The SEC has been too shitty OOC to receive the benefit of the doubt this year. The league has one good win OOC.

As for Duke, Auburn and South Carolina. Yes, South Carolina and Auburn have played more difficult schedules. But they've also looked like shit against those schedules. Neither have a good win(like Duke does against Clemson), and South Carolina has been blown out twice now already.

1. We don't know that they have a better remaining schedule.

2. We will have made the CCG and lost after going undefeated. In your scenario, they will have lost a regular season game and not made the conference championship. So, you are penalizing UGA in this case for making the SECCG. That won't and shouldn't happen unless they are blown out.

3. We don't even need to get to SOS in that schedule unless you have anti-SEC bias. How do you know what tOSU's schedule would have been playing our schedule? You don't. That's why it's good we are going to 12.

 

[osubuckeye89]

I don't really care if Duke is good or not. But they are better than both South Carolina and Auburn. Those teams fucking suck man. What the hell have either of them actually done to make you think they are better than Duke?

We'll see how many games all those teams lose. TN hasn't played like a top 25 team, banking on them winning all their games outside of UGA/Bama doesn't seem likely to me. If any of them do it, it's probably Ole Miss and that's because their schedule is a complete joke the rest of the way.

Your schedule has been a joke thus far. Combine that with the fact your remaining schedule isn't even considered to be a top 25 toughest schedule remaining, on the whole, that's a bad schedule.

Yea I don't think Duke is a elite team or anything, they are at least decent though.

Trying to talk up Auburn and South Carolina is just laughable. That would be like me trying to pimp up Purdue.

 

[ericd7633]

1. We don't know that they have a better remaining schedule.

2. We will have made the CCG and lost after going undefeated. In your scenario, they will have lost a regular season game and not made the conference championship. So, you are penalizing UGA in this case for making the SECCG. That won't and shouldn't happen unless they are blown out.

3. We don't even need to get to SOS in that schedule unless you have anti-SEC bias. How do you know what tOSU's schedule would have been playing our schedule? You don't. That's why it's good we are going to 12.

1. According to the FPI, Ohio State does.

2. Yes, I would be penalizing them for losing to what will probably be a top 10 team, while having, most likely, no other top 10 wins. So, hypothetically UGA would be 0-1 against the top 10.

3. I'm not anti anything. In fact I've been called an SEC homer in the past(yes, even as an ND fan). The league is just bad this year...so far. They have some opportunities at the end to make up for it.

 

[ericd7633]

Yea I don't think Duke is a elite team or anything, they are at least decent though.

Trying to talk up Auburn and South Carolina is just laughable. That would be like me trying to pimp up Purdue.

Yeah, they've done more than Auburn and South Carolina have. It's frankly not that close.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

1. According to the FPI, Ohio State does.

2. Yes, I would be penalizing them for losing to what will probably be a top 10 team, while having, most likely, no other top 10 wins. So, hypothetically UGA would be 0-1 against the top 10.

3. I'm not anti anything. In fact I've been called an SEC homer in the past(yes, even as an ND fan). The league is just bad this year...so far. They have some opportunities at the end to make up for it.

1. You seem to continue to miss the point. We are at week 6. You have no idea what the remaining season will hold. At the beginning of the year our SOS was worse than it is today because teams like Ky seem to be better than people thought pre-season. This is not a difficult concept to grasp.

2. Good thing the committee won't do that. And how do you know that tOSU would be against top 10 teams in that scenario?