AL West Thread

DragonFromTo said:
Don't you think that the time missed is a contributing factor though? While it's not like we're just talking about a hot week and I do think that Seager is a great ballplayer I also think that his wRC+ would probably be a bit lower if he had 150-200 more PAs this season :noidea:
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Oh it does play a role. Even if he does get 150-200 more PA and sees his wRC+ drop by, say, 30 points... a 157 wRC+ is still amazing for a shortstop.

He does have a .369 BABIP, which is a career high. He's had .350+ BABIPs before, but you do have to go back to 2016-17. It's not like he's significantly outperforming his Statcast metrics (.347 BA vs .332 xBA; .659 SLG vs .652 xSLG; .444 wOBA vs .441 xwOBA)
 
DragonFromTo said:
Don't you think that the time missed is a contributing factor though? While it's not like we're just talking about a hot week and I do think that Seager is a great ballplayer I also think that his wRC+ would probably be a bit lower if he had 150-200 more PAs this season :noidea:
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I mean, maybe??

But have you watched him?? The guy has been doing it all year long. Hes a machine. His stats are not some product of a hot streak here or there. Or a big burst like Julio. Seager has basically had a .340 average and .600 slug all year long. So to expect a big dip is a bit optimistic. His metrics are insane he hits the ball hard constantly.

It was actually his numbers last year that were unlucky. Every advanced metric said he was hitting into awful luck last year. So this explosion was expected.
 
Mr.Hockey said:
I mean, maybe??

But have you watched him?? The guy has been doing it all year long. Hes a machine. His stats are not some product of a hot streak here or there. Or a big burst like Julio. Seager has basically had a .340 average and .600 slug all year long. So to expect a big dip is a bit optimistic. His metrics are insane he hits the ball hard constantly.
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I did make a point of saying exactly this

DragonFromTo said:
While it's not like we're just talking about a hot week and I do think that Seager is a great ballplayer
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Mr.Hockey said:
Seager has basically had a .340 average and .600 slug all year long. So to expect a big dip is a bit optimistic. His metrics are insane he hits the ball hard constantly.
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His worst month this season is a wRC+ of 131. Using napkin math and simple weighted averages we get that if we added 150 PAs at that level his wRC+ would drop about 16 points. If we added the same PAs at his 2015-2021 level of 135 it would drop 15 points. Neither of those scenarios is out of the question. His wRC+ would still be excellent if either of those things happened, I'm just saying that when your numbers are that high the cold streak doesn't even have to be cold to bring them down.


Mr.Hockey said:
It was actually his numbers last year that were unlucky. Every advanced metric said he was hitting into awful luck last year. So this explosion was expected.
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This explosion is significantly better on a rate basis than any season he has ever had before. Is that ever "expected"?

Aren't you essentially suggesting that if he had just had normal average luck last year he would have hit at this level, which is 50+ points of wRC+ or OPS+ higher than he batted from 2015-2021? Did his metrics really improve that much last year?

"It's really, really tough for anyone to keep their wRC+ above 185 over the duration of an entire season" is a large chunk of what I am saying. It's not a knock on Seager at all or a suggestion that his numbers so far this year are "undeserved".
 
DragonFromTo said:
I did make a point of saying exactly this





His worst month this season is a wRC+ of 131. Using napkin math and simple weighted averages we get that if we added 150 PAs at that level his wRC+ would drop about 16 points. If we added the same PAs at his 2015-2021 level of 135 it would drop 15 points. Neither of those scenarios is out of the question. His wRC+ would still be excellent if either of those things happened, I'm just saying that when your numbers are that high the cold streak doesn't even have to be cold to bring them down.




This explosion is significantly better on a rate basis than any season he has ever had before. Is that ever "expected"?

Aren't you essentially suggesting that if he had just had normal average luck last year he would have hit at this level, which is 50+ points of wRC+ or OPS+ higher than he batted from 2015-2021? Did his metrics really improve that much last year?

"It's really, really tough for anyone to keep their wRC+ above 185 over the duration of an entire season" is a large chunk of what I am saying. It's not a knock on Seager at all or a suggestion that his numbers so far this year are "undeserved".
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No. But he had a really solid year last year and every metric showed that he was very unlucky. Which was an indication that a massive year was coming.

This specific year or massive historic numbers? No. Nothing ever shows that. But its also the literal point of a "career year". By definition at some point a guy is going to have a year that looks better than the rest. Im just pointing out that whether it happens to dip a bit from here on out or not. The guy is absolutely raking and underlying data has supported it.

Again, of course he could fade but everything hes shown is hes no fluke this year. I think the much more likely thing would be to expect quite the dip next season while probably still being elite just nothing close to historic.

He got the Bonds treatment early in the year which was a bit extreme. But right now, Twins are currently playing him and I consider Seager singles a W every single time and 1 out doubles are also a cause for a victory lap. Hes a menace.
 
I'm never disappointed when I stay up to watch Julio. Kid just loves the big moment.
 
Bad weekend for the Mariners. Swept by Texas. Still got 7 remaining with HOU/TEX.
 
Angels hire Ron Washington. This is not a serious franchise
 
I think J-Rod fucks baseball cards, funny ad though :laugh:

 
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