Yeah, the OOC SOS projects, at least as of now to finish top 10. Even with a weaker BE than normal, that should still be a top 40 overall SOS. UNC finished with the 32nd SOS last year and was a 7 loss team heading into SS and got the last #1 seed. 27-7, 9 Q1 wins, 16 combined Q1/Q2 wins. Marquette would have a better record (assuming 17-3 finish), and I'd say roughly the same amount of Q1 and combined Q1/Q2 wins.
Also, for whatever reason, the committee loves gaudy conf records. That was largely the justification for UNC getting a 1 seed because a couple other teams had better resumes, most notably ISU.