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It would definitely be close, you're right. With PSU and ND not having that 12th game and already being where they are, I think 10-2 would likely land them both in the top 10, and if they beat michigan it'd be top 5 for sure (unless we blow them out which I doubt is happening). I also like Missouri to beat Tennessee and play UGA close, which is going to land them really close to top 10. I'm not on the Ole Miss bandwagon, I wouldn't be shocked if they lost this weekend and then to UGA, finishing 9-3 so on Wisconsin's level.It would be close, but I might lean OSU as having the better body of work. ND, PSU and Michigan are likely 3 top 15 wins(Michigan probably a top 6 win at worse). Ole Miss and Bama/LSU are likely top 15, but it's no guarantee Tenn and Missouri will be. Both play UGA still and then play each other. Does an 8-4 Tenn finished ranked? Maybe, but they'll have no good wins in this scenario, so it's nothing guaranteed. Then looking at secondary wins, it's very similar. Kentucky/UF is basically Rutgers/MD 6/7 win teams likely. Wisconsin making the B1GCG would be nice for OSU especially if they get there at 9-3. If they're ranked going into that game, I can't see the committee dropping them out for losing, even if they get their destroyed(which they would)
All said, UGA would have a top 10 win over Bama, possible top 10 win over Missouri, a likely top 20 win over Ole Miss, and then whatever happens to Tennessee. Meanwhile OSU would have at least two, possibly three top 10 wins and then a 4th over Wisconsin (x2, with one being on the road), so you may be right. I guess they set the tone putting them at 1 to begin with.