CFP Top 25 Guesses

osubuckeye89 said:
I still think UGA is going to be #1, lowest UGA will be is 2 but i'd be shocked if they aren't #1.
Click to expand...

It’s possible but I don’t think. The metrics aren’t screaming #1 and everyone agrees they’ve had a soft schedule to date
 
ericd7633 said:
Well the schedule is why I think UW will be ranked ahead of UGA at this point. I could be wrong and if I am, I don't really care. But UW has played a better schedule.
Click to expand...
Per SOS - UDub - 52nd, UGA - 81st.

I've said throughout the whole thread I don't care where we are now ... I care where we are at the end of the year. Hopefully, we win out against the 11, 14, and 19 schools (their SOS will go up, their ranking will drop) and then get the no. 1 spot after beating Bama or LSU. But, a lot of football to be played.
 
duckboy33 said:
I think a lot of people are underestimating how much the committee relies on advanced metrics. I will be surprised if UW is ranked higher than Michigan or Georgia. My guess is Ohio State is ranked #1 based on their quality wins and overall metrics. FSU, UGA, and Michigan will be ranked 2-4. That will give us an idea of how much the committee values quality wins (FSU) vs. advanced metrics (UGA and Michigan). UW will probably come in at 5 because their advanced metrics are a bit below the top 4.

How they end up ranking the 1 loss teams will be interesting. You have Oregon, OU, Texas, Alabama, Penn State and Ole Miss that will be ranked between 6-11 IMO.
Click to expand...
This. Everyone here is zoned in on UGA's soft schedule - it is and it will hurt us - and then a few big wins here or there. As if that is all the Committee looks at.

FWIW, I think FSU has a chance at no. 1. But you talk about quality wins - Clemson was one until it wasn't. LSU is like 100th in total D. Their SOS is 48th. I have a post in here where I have them no. 1, but again people here have a warped sense of who has played anyone "tough." We will know in 4 weeks who played tough teams.

I like your thought here. And seeing those 11 teams I sure wish this was a 12-team CFP this year. Damn, that would be fun.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
This. Everyone here is zoned in on UGA's soft schedule - it is and it will hurt us - and then a few big wins here or there. As if that is all the Committee looks at.

FWIW, I think FSU has a chance at no. 1. But you talk about quality wins - Clemson was one until it wasn't. LSU is like 100th in total D. Their SOS is 48th. I have a post in here where I have them no. 1, but again people here have a warped sense of who has played anyone "tough." We will know in 4 weeks who played tough teams.

I like your thought here. And seeing those 11 teams I sure wish this was a 12-team CFP this year. Damn, that would be fun.
Click to expand...

FSU's Clemson win certainly doesn't look like a great win at this point. However, I think LSU is still as good of a win as most teams in the top 5 will have.

FSU has a win over LSU
UW has a win over Oregon
Ohio State has wins over ND and Penn State.

Michigan and Georgia don't have a marquee win to this date. Obviously that could and probably will change by the end of the year. Michigan still has Ohio State and Penn State on the schedule. Georgia has Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri and a potential SEC Championship Game.

However, like I was saying. The committee uses advanced metrics to gauge overall team strength as well. I'm not saying these are what the committee will use but here are some of the advanced metric ratings:

SP+:
Michigan - 1st
Georgia - 2nd
Ohio State - 3rd
Washington - 7th
Florida State - 8th

FPI:
Ohio State - 1st
Michigan - 2nd
Georgia - 6th
Florida State - 7th
Washington - 14th

Action Network Betting Power Ratings:
Georgia - 1st
Michigan - 2nd
Ohio State - 4th
Florida State - 6th
Washington - 7th

FEI:
Michigan - 1st
Ohio State - 2nd
Georgia - 4th
Florida State - 5th
Washington - 12th

KFord Power Ratings:
Michigan - 1st
Ohio State - 2nd
Florida State - 4th
Georgia - 6th
Washington - 13th

The point: Advanced metrics suggest Michigan, Ohio State and Georgia are the best teams of the undefeated teams. Washington is the only undefeated that has multiple metrics having them outside the top 10, despite arguably the best win.

That's why I believe Ohio State will be ranked 1st. Advanced metrics like them and they have multiple quality wins. 2-5 wouldn't shock me. It's just going to tell us what the committee values.
 
I think Alabama will be higher than people think. We have a really strong SOS and 3 really solid wins.

Not really worried about it tho. Cant look ahead with this team
 
Mistaken4193 said:
I think Alabama will be higher than people think. We have a really strong SOS and 3 really solid wins.
Click to expand...

Think 8 is your ceiling. Gotta be behind Texas because of head to head, who has to be behind OU because of head to head. Based on how they've typically ranked teams.
 
duckboy33 said:
FSU's Clemson win certainly doesn't look like a great win at this point. However, I think LSU is still as good of a win as most teams in the top 5 will have.

FSU has a win over LSU
UW has a win over Oregon
Ohio State has wins over ND and Penn State.

Michigan and Georgia don't have a marquee win to this date. Obviously that could and probably will change by the end of the year. Michigan still has Ohio State and Penn State on the schedule. Georgia has Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri and a potential SEC Championship Game.

However, like I was saying. The committee uses advanced metrics to gauge overall team strength as well. I'm not saying these are what the committee will use but here are some of the advanced metric ratings:

SP+:
Michigan - 1st
Georgia - 2nd
Ohio State - 3rd
Washington - 7th
Florida State - 8th

FPI:
Ohio State - 1st
Michigan - 2nd
Georgia - 6th
Florida State - 7th
Washington - 14th

Action Network Betting Power Ratings:
Georgia - 1st
Michigan - 2nd
Ohio State - 4th
Florida State - 6th
Washington - 7th

FEI:
Michigan - 1st
Ohio State - 2nd
Georgia - 4th
Florida State - 5th
Washington - 12th

KFord Power Ratings:
Michigan - 1st
Ohio State - 2nd
Florida State - 4th
Georgia - 6th
Washington - 13th

The point: Advanced metrics suggest Michigan, Ohio State and Georgia are the best teams of the undefeated teams. Washington is the only undefeated that has multiple metrics having them outside the top 10, despite arguably the best win.

That's why I believe Ohio State will be ranked 1st. Advanced metrics like them and they have multiple quality wins. 2-5 wouldn't shock me. It's just going to tell us what the committee values.
Click to expand...

I get all of that. Towards the end. This is the first ranking. Most of them arent going to be all in on every single "advanced metric". Things will sort out and towards the end they'll be more focused. We hope.
 
ericd7633 said:
Think 8 is your ceiling. Gotta be behind Texas because of head to head, who has to be behind OU because of head to head. Based on how they've typically ranked teams.
Click to expand...

6. Texas 7. Bama 8 Oregon. Wouldn't shock me.

Im kinda rooting for it just for OD comedy.
 
101stAB said:
I get all of that. Towards the end. This is the first ranking. Most of them arent going to be all in on every single "advanced metric". Things will sort out and towards the end they'll be more focused. We hope.
Click to expand...

Honestly, it makes more sense to use advanced metrics now. By the end of the year, the selections are usually more obvious.
 
duckboy33 said:
Honestly, it makes more sense to use advanced metrics now. By the end of the year, the selections are usually more obvious.
Click to expand...
Tonight we get dartboards and beer behind closed doors. Just wait til the after interview, the guy will be glossy eyed and say stupid shit with a smile.
 
I'll predict that Ole Miss lands at #9 ahead of PSU and OU

They've got a better overall resume than Penn State and Oklahoma.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
6. Texas 7. Bama 8 Oregon. Wouldn't shock me.

Im kinda rooting for it just for OD comedy.
Click to expand...

So OU would be #9 then? Not saying it's impossible, but that would differ from what they've done in the past.
 
ericd7633 said:
So OU would be #9 then? Not saying it's impossible, but that would differ from what they've done in the past.
Click to expand...

Nope Ole Miss will be #9

Better overall resume and you can never discount them loving to maximize the SEC. Gives Bama a better win and gives UGA a potential huge boost win in 2 weeks.

OU #10
PSU #11
 
I wonder how head to head really comes into play in a situation where you are discussing like 4-6 teams in a group though. This group being Texas, Bama, OU, Penn State, Oregon & Ole Miss.

They could very well say fuck it and have Bama ahead of Texas and OU
 
osubuckeye89 said:
I know OU beat Texas but it's hard to look past a loss to Kansas just a few days ago. Recency tends to effect the committee somewhat as well.
Click to expand...
I think Texas will be ahead of OU honestly. They lost in a very non-decisive way on a neutral field in a game where OU played about as well as they could while Texas was sloppy. Nothing against OU, I think Texas beats them on a neutral field 6/7 times out of 10. Seeing Texas manhandle Kansas while OU lost to them will mean something IMO.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
Nope Ole Miss will be #9

Better overall resume and you can never discount them loving to maximize the SEC. Gives Bama a better win and gives UGA a potential huge boost win in 2 weeks.

OU #10
PSU #11
Click to expand...

Yeah, it'll be interesting. OU certainly hasn't played great since beating UT. If they are going eye test, I can see them being behind all those and come in at 10.
 
Mistaken4193 said:
I think Alabama will be higher than people think. We have a really strong SOS and 3 really solid wins.

Not really worried about it tho. Cant look ahead with this team
Click to expand...
Hate to say it but I don't think Bama is going anywhere. The loss to Texas was bad, but not that bad. Bama lead going into the 4th and then Texas sprung to life. If Bama beats LSU this weekend, they're going to have one hell of a game against UGA in the SECCG.
 
Across The Field said:
Hate to say it but I don't think Bama is going anywhere. The loss to Texas was bad, but not that bad. Bama lead going into the 4th and then Texas sprung to life. If Bama beats LSU this weekend, they're going to have one hell of a game against UGA in the SECCG.
Click to expand...

Yea this Bama team is clearly not as great as Saban's better teams, but they still have enough talent to beat anyone on the right day. Anyone who thought they were gonna be like a 4 loss also ran this year was mistaken.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
Yea this Bama team is clearly not as great as Saban's better teams, but they still have enough talent to beat anyone on the right day. Anyone who thought they were gonna be like a 4 loss also ran this year was mistaken.
Click to expand...
That was definitely me after the USF game. Defense is starting to step up, and I agree, they could beat anyone in the country on the right day. I'm not thrilled to see them with Sayin next year, that kid looks scary.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top