College Football Expansion - Who is Next and Why

[WhosYourDawggy]

I can't believe YOU would even mention such a thing!

I never said that crappier teams weren't lucky to be in the SEC or B1G. Hell, I've never argued they carry their weight. None of Vandy, NW, or the like would be considered to be added to the SEC or the B1G today. It's not about acquiring such teams, it's about booting them out. That's not going to happen. So, yeah, those schools are lucky that they were there at the birth of the conferences. For at least Vandy, they contributed heavily to the creation of the SEC and were one of the best teams for decades.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Yes, yes it was.

Open to your ideas on the market, but that's not really a novel stance I am taking. You can read about it all over the place.

I addressed cutting cable and streaming TV like YTTV. I believe you are mistaken about the geographic nature of the lineup. The YTTV package is the same everywhere except the local stations. I get BTN, ACCN, and SECN (part of ESPN/Disney), and I live in North Carolina. That part of the basic package is everywhere. I don't have to live in the geographic footprint of a conference to get the channels. There are no SEC nor B1G schools in NC.

The log-in issue you raised doesn't deal with the national channels available. It serves two purposes ... local channels so you can get local news and programming, and to make sure that you aren't sharing your subscription. My son lived in LA where he was going to school there. After a month, he could no longer use our YTTV account. Same with my son at Bama. My younger son has moved back and is going to UNC which is about 20 minutes away. He can use it there.

I actually listed the amount the B1G was making from the LA market. It's $17.5 million per year. And shrinking. 90 million households to 40 million by 2026-27. For a conference that is making a billion now, and will be at $1.5 billion in a year, $17.5 million is not the "primary" reason they are taking over the LA market. "Small streams make for large rivers," so they won't turn that money down. And picking up markets like Seattle, San Fran and Portland (even Atlanta @rfjeff9) would be part of the equation. But, it's not close to the driving force it was in 2014. So you have a twofer here: (1) the base of basic cable has dramatically shrunk since 2010 when the new conference networks were the drivers of the contracts and revenue, and (2) people are moving to streaming TV that is no longer geographically relevant. If you disagree with me, which is fine, explain why the no. 2 TV market in the US is only worth $17.5 million dollars to the B1G.

@rfjeff9 has pointed out that "markets" are important for recruiting and that makes some sense. You could see that the B1G would want to be in Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Cali which are the largest recruiting markets. But when a team coming into the league is getting $100+ million they have to bring more than an extended recruiting ground. LA happens to have two storied programs, one a blue blood. And Hollywood. And beaches and the Rose Bowl where UCLA plays. USC v. most B1G schools will drive viewership. Not so sure about UCLA but you had to have a traveling buddy. And USC certainly could contribute to the CFP pool of money which is going to e a main driver of the $100 million pay days.

It's the same everywhere, but the negotiated price to get it is going to depend on the market value of whatever channel/broadcast we're talking about. The markets are important for eyes, and TV deals. And those TV deals get pushed That determines what's included in a prices vs. a potential add-on vs. not offered at all. We're in a world of media rights now. And markets play huge into that. I just saw a link this morning that suggested the B10 might get about 15% more in their upcoming TV deal because of the LA market. 15% on a 1 billion dollar deal is huge.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

It's the same everywhere, but the negotiated price to get it is going to depend on the market value of whatever channel/broadcast we're talking about. The markets are important for eyes, and TV deals. And those TV deals get pushed That determines what's included in a prices vs. a potential add-on vs. not offered at all. We're in a world of media rights now. And markets play huge into that. I just saw a link this morning that suggested the B10 might get about 15% more in their upcoming TV deal because of the LA market. 15% on a 1 billion dollar deal is huge.

Give the citation, I'll read the article. 15% is a lot less than 85% which is clearly based on viewership and the CFP money. If USC didn't have the chance to get into the CFP, or didn't generate large viewership on their own, the B1G wouldn't be interested in them just because they are in LA. I never said "markets" was worth nothing. I include it as one of the three rails of CFB economics.

Where you and I differ is whether it is a major factor or a diminishing factor in the economics of CFB. I believe it clearly is a diminishing factor. Why is that important? Not so much for USC and UCLA ... the LA market obviously has value. But it is more important when people give "market" as justification for going into Atlanta, as an example. Or why people keep bringing up UVa, VaTech, and NCSU and say they might get a bid so that the B1G or the SEC gets into Atlanta or Virginia. When a team has to deliver $100 million to justify their piece of pie, getting the Atlanta or Virginia market just doesn't move the needle enough unless they have eyeballs or CFP shares. If LA is only worth $17.5 million - that's the figure I have cited and provided links for - then Atlanta and Virginia aren't going to move the needle for those teams that don't have eyeballs or a chance to get into the CFP. If, as you state, moving into Atlanta, North Carolina, Portland, San Fran, or Seattle provide hundreds of millions in revenue then the B1G and the SEC would be going after those teams. The ACC GOR notwithstanding, why isn't the B1G going after Washington and Oregon if "market" brings in hundreds of millions? Oregon in particular has eyeballs and CFP potential such that if market mattered they would be in.

Look, Rutgers got into the B1G for one reason, and one reason only. They delivered "in-footprint" subscription fees for New Jersey and the entire state of New York. That economic model simply doesn't apply anymore. You and I both know that the B1G isn't taking Rutgers today because the main 2 main rails of CFB economics bring in very little revenue for Rutgers.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Give the citation, I'll read the article. 15% is a lot less than 85% which is clearly based on viewership and the CFP money. If USC didn't have the chance to get into the CFP, or didn't generate large viewership on their own, the B1G wouldn't be interested in them just because they are in LA. I never said "markets" was worth nothing. I include it as one of the three rails of CFB economics.

Where you and I differ is whether it is a major factor or a diminishing factor in the economics of CFB. I believe it clearly is a diminishing factor. Why is that important? Not so much for USC and UCLA ... the LA market obviously has value. But it is more important when people give "market" as justification for going into Atlanta, as an example. Or why people keep bringing up UVa, VaTech, and NCSU and say they might get a bid so that the B1G or the SEC gets into Atlanta or Virginia. When a team has to deliver $100 million to justify their piece of pie, getting the Atlanta or Virginia market just doesn't move the needle enough unless they have eyeballs or CFP shares. If LA is only worth $17.5 million - that's the figure I have cited and provided links for - then Atlanta and Virginia aren't going to move the needle for those teams that don't have eyeballs or a chance to get into the CFP. If, as you state, moving into Atlanta, North Carolina, Portland, San Fran, or Seattle provide hundreds of millions in revenue then the B1G and the SEC would be going after those teams. The ACC GOR notwithstanding, why isn't the B1G going after Washington and Oregon if "market" brings in hundreds of millions? Oregon in particular has eyeballs and CFP potential such that if market mattered they would be in.

Look, Rutgers got into the B1G for one reason, and one reason only. They delivered "in-footprint" subscription fees for New Jersey and the entire state of New York. That economic model simply doesn't apply anymore. You and I both know that the B1G isn't taking Rutgers today because the main 2 main rails of CFB economics bring in very little revenue for Rutgers.

Here's the original link I saw this morning:

SBJ Media: New Big Ten bids coming this week

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

Elevenwarriors suggested the same here:

Skull Session: SEC is Done Expanding, E.J. Liddell Suffers Knee Injury, and Big Ten Broadcast Negotiations Begin

The SEC doesn't want to add more teams, E.J. Liddell suffers a knee injury, bidding is set to begin on a new Big Ten broadcast deal, and more.

www.elevenwarriors.com

Even before last week’s blockbuster announcement that UCLA and USC will join the Big Ten in 2024, this media deal was set to eclipse $1 billion per year. The addition of those two schools should see an increase of more than 15% over those rights fees.

This suggestion link suggests the value was 10-25% more:

Big Ten Media Rights Value Could Increase Up to 25% With USC, UCLA

The conference’s annual broadcast value could reach a record-breaking $1.25 billion, based on sources’ estimates.

frontofficesports.com

An additional 15% on a 1 billion dollar deal is $150,000,000. That's pretty darn significant. And now Apple is joining back in the fight to bid for the streaming rights. So that might push it even higher.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Here's the original link I saw this morning:

SBJ Media: New Big Ten bids coming this week

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

Elevenwarriors suggested the same here:

Skull Session: SEC is Done Expanding, E.J. Liddell Suffers Knee Injury, and Big Ten Broadcast Negotiations Begin

The SEC doesn't want to add more teams, E.J. Liddell suffers a knee injury, bidding is set to begin on a new Big Ten broadcast deal, and more.

www.elevenwarriors.com

This suggestion link suggests the value was 10-25% more:

Big Ten Media Rights Value Could Increase Up to 25% With USC, UCLA

The conference’s annual broadcast value could reach a record-breaking $1.25 billion, based on sources’ estimates.

frontofficesports.com

An additional 15% on a 1 billion dollar deal is $150,000,000. That's pretty darn significant. And now Apple is joining back in the fight to bid for the streaming rights. So that might push it even higher.

Thanks, I'll read them.

Apple's foray into this is purely streaming and not geographic or related to LA, FWIW.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Thanks, I'll read them.

Apple's foray into this is purely streaming and not geographic or related to LA, FWIW.

But bringing in UCLA and USC seems to have brought them back into the fold. It would be easy to assume because of the market tied with those schools. They dropped out a few months ago.

 

[ELTEXAN]

Write this weeks ago, huh. Some of us wrote about this for the last couple
Of years. But lemme guess? “Crazy El Jexan” right?

 

[Volbound1700]

I agree with @WhosYourDawggy on most items but to play devil advocate's and argue something for @MAIZEandBLUE09 position.

Your entire logic is based off just TV revenue. There are other revenue streams including fan attendance, merchandise sales, etc.

The SEC by getting a team in North Carolina (even if it is NC State) now has merchandise, fan support, etc. in the state. You are growing the brand in a new market.

North Carolina will be a battle ground when 2034-2036 rolls around. Book it. Not sure if UNC wants to continue to play football game or not. However, I think that NC State will be on the table if someone losses out on UNC.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Here's the original link I saw this morning:

SBJ Media: New Big Ten bids coming this week

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

Elevenwarriors suggested the same here:

Skull Session: SEC is Done Expanding, E.J. Liddell Suffers Knee Injury, and Big Ten Broadcast Negotiations Begin

The SEC doesn't want to add more teams, E.J. Liddell suffers a knee injury, bidding is set to begin on a new Big Ten broadcast deal, and more.

www.elevenwarriors.com

This suggestion link suggests the value was 10-25% more:

Big Ten Media Rights Value Could Increase Up to 25% With USC, UCLA

The conference’s annual broadcast value could reach a record-breaking $1.25 billion, based on sources’ estimates.

frontofficesports.com

An additional 15% on a 1 billion dollar deal is $150,000,000. That's pretty darn significant. And now Apple is joining back in the fight to bid for the streaming rights. So that might push it even higher.

Ok, quick reads. The second article quotes the first and doesn't provide anything new. Those two articles don't mention that the increase is due to the "LA market" as I am referring to it. They actually attribute the increase to more inventory - that's the eyeballs rail:

It’s standard for college media deals to pay incrementally more (or less) for schools that get added (or dropped) from conferences. Now, instead of an incremental increase, the addition of USC and UCLA becomes part of the base package. Renewed interest comes from the added inventory of USC and UCLA games -- combined with the weakening of a rival conference.

This is not news to anyone. Just like the SEC gets more for adding OU and TX, it's obvious that the B1G would get more for having more people watch their games and the inventory of good games increase.

The third article does mention the LA market, specifically:

But the addition of the Trojans and Bruins brings not just diehard fan bases and storied brands. It also provides access to the coveted Los Angeles television market, sports business expert Lee Berke told FOS.

“The timing couldn’t be better,” said Berke. “There’s no other Pac-12 presence throughout Southern California. So you get that market. It’s not just the city; it’s the DMA.”

There are no other details. Again, I have not said market isn't part of the package. After all, I included it as one of three rails of CFB economics. My guess is that they are referring to the LA market as it relates to the eyeballs rail ... people in that market, with the value of their advertising, who will be watching the game. I suspect it refers to the B1G fans from all schools, and then those who will now watch B1G football, not PAC football. See the reference in the other article where they talk about the value of weakening another conference. I don't think they are referring to the idea of picking up more money from basic cable which is the way that most people refer to the "market" rail.

So let me see if I can clarify a bit. If we are talking about the value of the "market" rail in the "Rutgers" context that it was in 2010-2014 - picking up subscription dollars from basic cable, I don't think that's a significant amount, although it is a small stream they will be glad to have. If we are talking about the market in context with the second rail, average viewership and advertising, then sure, that will be a significant increase (just like it will be in Dallas/Austin/Oklahoma for the SEC) in the eyeballs watching games. USC's numbers will be sure to be up, as will UCLA's like they were when LSU came to town.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I agree with @WhosYourDawggy on most items but to play devil advocate's and argue something for @MAIZEandBLUE09 position.

Your entire logic is based off just TV revenue. There are other revenue streams including fan attendance, merchandise sales, etc.

The SEC by getting a team in North Carolina (even if it is NC State) now has merchandise, fan support, etc. in the state. You are growing the brand in a new market.

North Carolina will be a battle ground when 2034-2036 rolls around. Book it. Not sure if UNC wants to continue to play football game or not. However, I think that NC State will be on the table if someone losses out on UNC.

That money goes to the schools selling it. I don't think it would be significant in determining if a team delivers $100 million of value to the rest of the conference. NCSU brings nothing. Believe me, I live here. They have neither eyeballs nor CFP potential.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

But bringing in UCLA and USC seems to have brought them back into the fold. It would be easy to assume because of the market tied with those schools. They dropped out a few months ago.

It's the teams, not the markets. And, I doubt they were ever totally out of it. But, again, this isn't the Rutgers example of "market" which is what I was referring to.

I mean I have Apple TV and anything they do won't stream just in LA.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Write this weeks ago, huh. Some of us wrote about this for the last couple
Of years. But lemme guess? “Crazy El Jexan” right?

I have no idea what you just said, nor what you mean by it. Back to the kiddies table.

 

[ELTEXAN]

I have no idea what you just said, nor what you mean by it. Back to the kiddies table.

Sure sure.

 

[Volbound1700]

That money goes to the schools selling it. I don't think it would be significant in determining if a team delivers $100 million of value to the rest of the conference. NCSU brings nothing. Believe me, I live here. They have neither eyeballs nor CFP potential.

There are SEC logo shirts too lol. I am sure SEC has to take part of the cut even if it is small.

NC State is in shadow of UNC right now. If UNC is not in the SEC, NC State is the best fit. They are better than Duke, Wake Forest, or East Carolina - the other options.

I have NC State fans at work and have seen them before. They have a following.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

There are SEC logo shirts too lol. I am sure SEC has to take part of the cut even if it is small.

NC State is in shadow of UNC right now. If UNC is not in the SEC, NC State is the best fit. They are better than Duke, Wake Forest, or East Carolina - the other options.

I have NC State fans at work and have seen them before. They have a following.

With a $1.5 billion dollar contract, I am pretty confident no one has ever sent out an intern to calculate how much they are going to make off T-shirts.

They don't have a following .. for goodness sakes, they are sandwiched between Kansas, Wake, Washing State and Georgia Tech for average viewers.

55 Kansas — 540K
56 Wake Forest — 526K
57 NC State — 525K
59 Washington State — 483K
61 Georgia Tech — 459K

They aren't a flagship state university. If you look up "little brother syndrome" in the dictionary, they have a picture of NCSU. If UNC goes to the B1G the SEC doesn't respond by taking little brother.

The other option is you don't go into a state just to get that market unless that team can generate $110 million in revenue through viewership and CFP potential.

 

[Volbound1700]

With a $1.5 billion dollar contract, I am pretty confident no one has ever sent out an intern to calculate how much they are going to make off T-shirts.

They don't have a following .. for goodness sakes, they are sandwiched between Kansas, Wake, Washing State and Georgia Tech for average viewers.

55 Kansas — 540K
56 Wake Forest — 526K
57 NC State — 525K
59 Washington State — 483K
61 Georgia Tech — 459K

They aren't a flagship state university. If you look up "little brother syndrome" in the dictionary, they have a picture of NCSU. If UNC goes to the B1G the SEC doesn't respond by taking little brother.

The other option is you don't go into a state just to get that market unless that team can generate $110 million in revenue through viewership and CFP potential.

You are showing NC State RIGHT NOW. If NC State is the only SEC team in North Carolina, I am sure they stock moves up significantly. Texas A&M got a HUGE boost with their move.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

You are showing NC State RIGHT NOW. If NC State is the only SEC team in North Carolina, I am sure they stock moves up significantly. Texas A&M got a HUGE boost with their move.

No, their stock won't move up unless they start averaging well over a million viewers per game, and they start making the CFP. Moving into the CFP would drop their already minute change of getting into the CFP. Getting more viewers because they are in the SEC means those are already SEC eyeballs watching the games. You don't give credit to a team because their average goes up because they play other good teams. You get credit when you are driving the eyeballs - that's the value in ND, OU, TX and USC.

You are making this harder than it needs to be. Each team in the SEC is to estimated to be getting $115 million per year in 2027. Show me any facts that would indicate that NCSU moving into the SEC could generate $115 million in revenue. Because if they can't do that, SEC teams aren't going to invite them in just to have a school in NC. You invite a school in NC because them coming in generates more than $115 million in revenue. Period.

 

[Red_Alert]

I don't think Oregon is going to expand Autzen. Demand for Duck tickets has been in decline since 2015. I'm hopeful they do a better job this year. It's the best home schedule in a while (2019 and 2021 home schedules were bad, 2020 should have been great) and it's a talented team. Oregon likely wants to see what makes more sense financially, the Big 12 or the PAC 12. They're also going to want flexibility for when the Big Ten expands again.

Phil Knight needs to dummy up and buy tickets for homeless orphans.

 

[Volbound1700]

No, their stock won't move up unless they start averaging well over a million viewers per game, and they start making the CFP. Moving into the CFP would drop their already minute change of getting into the CFP. Getting more viewers because they are in the SEC means those are already SEC eyeballs watching the games. You don't give credit to a team because their average goes up because they play other good teams. You get credit when you are driving the eyeballs - that's the value in ND, OU, TX and USC.

You are making this harder than it needs to be. Each team in the SEC is to estimated to be getting $115 million per year in 2027. Show me any facts that would indicate that NCSU moving into the SEC could generate $115 million in revenue. Because if they can't do that, SEC teams aren't going to invite them in just to have a school in NC. You invite a school in NC because them coming in generates more than $115 million in revenue. Period.

I see your logic that NC State would have to double its fanbase to even get attention from SEC (be in million dollar club as you put it).

However, I don't see them as impossible. I can still get see them getting picked up Missouri/Rutgers style to be a partner for another team if UNC isn't grabbed by the SEC.

Definitely only three ACC teams make a lot of sense for the SEC to accept (I don't think SEC necessarily poaches team, same with B1G. I think the schools lead with their desire to move): Clemson, FSU, and UNC.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I see your logic that NC State would have to double its fanbase to even get attention from SEC (be in million dollar club as you put it).

However, I don't see them as impossible. I can still get see them getting picked up Missouri/Rutgers style to be a partner for another team if UNC isn't grabbed by the SEC.

Definitely only three ACC teams make a lot of sense for the SEC to accept (I don't think SEC necessarily poaches team, same with B1G. I think the schools lead with their desire to move): Clemson, FSU, and UNC.

And maybe Miami. Could be a defensive move against the B1G if they would do such a thing.

Clemson, FSU, UNC, Mami and OkSU would probably be the only 5 they would consider. Things might look different in 12 years ... look back 12 years and see how things have changed - conferences expanded, the economic model has changed dramatically.