It's close.
Nova has a win against two teams that will likely be a 2 and a 3 seed.
But a crapload of bad losses.
They're the poster child for screwing with the committee's head.
Indiana State is a little bit of a more generic case, they've seen that movie a lot before.
As for which team can do more, get in, beat Florida, beat Duke, etc, honestly I would say Indiana State.
Short of the top 3 teams, they can beat any team. Does Nova have a better chance to beat those 3 teams? Maybe. But they also have a better chance of coming out, not showing any discipline on defense, getting and being down 20 by the 10 minute mark