Crazy, bitch ass weather

Red_Alert said:
Lee has spent the day battling SAL and 20-25 kts of SW windshear.
NHC expects those conditions to continue for the next 12-24 hrs.

The latest recon flight found a ragged eye with max surface winds of 109 mph which is Cat 2.

Basically from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 5 in less than 24 hours. Then from a Cat 5 down to a Cat 2 in 12 hours.

View attachment 107031
There is enough kinetic energy there that it should rejuvenate once it gets back to favorable conditions.

View attachment 107028
Click to expand...

Looks like Lee's eyewall has completely collapsed.

Recon was having trouble finding the COC.

1694226946308.png
 
williewilliejuan said:
110 degrees in September is a bit much. Time to dial this shit back.
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hosed down steve austin GIF by WWE
 
williewilliejuan said:
Dear Mister Sun: I’m not sure if you seen the calendar, but we’re done with you. Take your shit and go.
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Naaah don’t say that. Then the volcanoes have their party and no sun, no plants, no beef, no more boobs


Just need that cold front.

You should have escaped up north a bit in august when it was mid 80s in Arkansas. Got to watch the weather channel maaaaan
 
Red_Alert said:
Lee has spent the day battling SAL and 20-25 kts of SW windshear.
NHC expects those conditions to continue for the next 12-24 hrs.

The latest recon flight found a ragged eye with max surface winds of 109 mph which is Cat 2.

Basically from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 5 in less than 24 hours. Then from a Cat 5 down to a Cat 2 in 12 hours.

View attachment 107031
There is enough kinetic energy there that it should rejuvenate once it gets back to favorable conditions.

View attachment 107028
Click to expand...

Red_Alert said:
Looks like Lee's eyewall has completely collapsed.

Recon was having trouble finding the COC.

View attachment 107034
Click to expand...



Latest NHC Forecast Discussion

"Strong southwesterly shear has taken a toll on Lee's structure.
The crews of ongoing NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
missions reported that the hurricane's eyewall has opened up, and
the satellite presentation has degraded significantly since earlier
today. Both planes have found the minimum pressure rising during
their missions, with the latest measurements being around 963 mb.
Based on this pressure and the planes' wind measurements, Lee's
initial intensity is set at 100 kt."

Basically a weak Cat 3 on it's way to a Cat 2.


 
Red_Alert said:
Tuesday Sept 12th

View attachment 106921

Wednesday Sept 13th

View attachment 106922

Thursday Sept 14th

View attachment 106923
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Red_Alert said:
I got another day (Friday Sept 15th) added to the surface maps I posted yesterday.
No changes in that the Trough is still modeled to be in place and protect the US east coast from landfall.

If the Trough verifies and there's a landfall, it would be Nova Scotia or Newfoundland.

Those semi-circles off the coast of North Carolina/Virginia is Lee on it's northerly track.

View attachment 107002


There is currently a strong ridge of High Pressure (not shown) in the central and northern Atlantic. That is what's keeping Lee on it's current WNW track. That High expected to weaken come Tuesday 12th or Wednesday 13th. That's when we can expect Lee to take a northerly turn and ride between said US Trough and the High Pressure. Basically like a bowling lane with the kiddie bumpers up.
If the trough verifies, the more that High Pressure weakens will allow Lee to take a NNE to NE recurve. The timing and weakening of that High Pressure will determine whether there's landfall in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland.

The entire US East Coast will feel effects from Lee in the form of waves, surge, and riptides. There are going to be idiots out there wanting to get in that rough water to surf or whatever. :rip:
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Adding another day (Saturday 16th) to the surface map models.

The trough is setting up nicely to keep Lee off the US coast. Maine had previously been a very low % outlier, but if this verifies then the last possibilities for COC landfall will be eastern Nova Scotia/Newfoundland. That will depend on the strength of the high pressure ridge to the east of Lee. If it weakens it'll allow Lee to make a NE recurve and it could miss landfall altogether.

1694264998683.png
 
Red_Alert said:
Shear Map

View attachment 107036
Click to expand...

That being said, Lee spent the night moving into a more favorable windshear environment. In my previous post I'd shown Lee's COC was taking 20-25 kts of shear. That was depicted with the 'orange 3' located between the yellow and red lines.

This morning's shear map shows Lee between the yellow and green lines. Somewhere between 15-20 kts of shear which is considerably more favorable for reorganization. I'm not seeing any SAL (dry air) in it's direct path. There is some SAL off the coast of the Dominican Republic that could effect Lee's core in a negative way, but that's a couple days out. Lee is highly likely going to start ramping up again. Projection is Cat 4, but I wouldn't take another Cat 5 push off the table. JMO.

1694266397586.png
 
I outlined Dry Air in blue.

Lee is moving away from the dry air to it's east ESE.
The dry air off the coast of South America is a non factor.

Lee will encounter the dry air off the coast of the Dominican Republic and that may be why the models have Lee downgrading from Cat 4 to Cat 3 after crossing 25° N.
Lee is going to slow down temporarily when it makes that northerly turn. That gives it more time to potentially ingest that dry air.

lee sal.png
 
Outside of Lee not having a distinct clear eye, I haven't seen it look this good even when it was Cat 5.

When it was Cat 5 it was relying mainly on SST's for fuel. It didn't have the feeder bands that it's got now.

The last recon mission had a closed eye (ragged and elongated) . However, it's overcast with clouds so not (YET) visible on satellite.
1694269076707.png

Now that it's got feeder bands and favorable SST's another round of rapid intensification is a good possibility as it moves even further away from the unfavorable shear conditions.

1694269477400.png
 
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