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Based on the article posted above #238 it looks like UNC is tied to the hip of NC State:
Do FSU & Clemson Have A Landing Spot?
- Thread starter Wild Turkey
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What would be the point of this bill if UNC and NCst needed to be in the same conference?
SC-Clemson has something similar
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It should have been isn’t. Very bad typo.
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No problem, I have plenty so no worries WT.
Do you have have any opinion on how quickly you think UNC joins the SEC?
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I think the GORs is harder to defeat than the average person understands so the ACC sticks together until FSU and Clemson can afford to buy themselves out. The problem is where are they going to go?
UNC doesn’t leave unless the league falls apart then everyone is going to be looking for a home and the SEC takes a hard look. It makes no financial sense but I’d take both UNC and Duke and then the SEC becomes the undisputed best CBB conference and it isn’t close and no one would have a shot of catching them.
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Clemson and Florida State approve settlement with ACC over media rights contract
Schools in the ACC will be able to leave the conference in 2031 for $75 million.
sports.yahoo.com
The GoR buyout to get out for the 2026 season is $165 million and goes down each year by $18 million per the settlement. While that number is big, it’s not nearly as huge as the one that was once thought to be $500 million plus. To get out for 2031, that number is $75 million. You ‘re crazy if you don’t think any time would pay even the 165 if they have a spot in the B1G/SEC.
But you do bring up a fair point of where do people go if not the P2. That brings a whole bunch of other questions. Even involving who and when are people leaving.
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On the real.. if your school is in either the BiG or SEC.. any teams in the ACC right now look attractive? I thought I would be happy to have Clemson or FSU or UNC in the SEC, but at this point... doesn't get me excited or anything.
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I think with the ACC addition(s) it’s more about gaining control of the March tournament. That’s why the addition of North Carolina imo is so huge. Plus as WT already mentioned they could take Duke and the SEC would be hands down the best bball conference yearly. And the B1G could grab Kansas and breakaway. The NCAA won’t get close to the numbers they have now for a bball championship tourn without any blue blood teams.
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The problem is that Hoops doesn't pay the bill. The House litigation is instructive.
- If you look at the House distribution and what is resulting from it, about 20% of the money is going to men's hoops. It's based on their earning potential. So, UNC and Duke as hoops powers doesn't matter. Each school would have to cough up $5-10 million to have them in. No team is doing that.
- More importantly, the revenue to pay the House settlement for the next 10 years comes from March Madness, which means payouts to schools will be reduced for 10 years. That's where the good teams made money for their conferences - going deep in March.
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The GOR is and was legally iron-clad. The fact that they negotiated it down doesn't mean it isn't enforceable. GORs are used in a variety of industries, most especially entertainment and they have always been enforced. Think Taylor Swift re-recording her entire album list just to get around her GOR. Or Michael Jackson's and the Beatle's IP rights that are all wrapped up in GORs.
If you think through the FSU/Clemson/ACC thing, it's really simple. They were going to be able to buy out of the GOR at some point around 2032-ish anyway. We discussed that a lot here. So, the ACC saw the ability to have stability to determine the best way to move forward without FSU and Clemson. They have 5 years to figure it out. I kind of think that FSU and Clemson get into the CFP a lot in that time period with 2 AQs and decide that's the easiest path.
If you think through the FSU/Clemson/ACC thing, it's really simple. They were going to be able to buy out of the GOR at some point around 2032-ish anyway. We discussed that a lot here. So, the ACC saw the ability to have stability to determine the best way to move forward without FSU and Clemson. They have 5 years to figure it out. I kind of think that FSU and Clemson get into the CFP a lot in that time period with 2 AQs and decide that's the easiest path.
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I’m talking the NCAA tournament. The NCAA takes in about a billion dollars of revenue from that. (They don’t keep it all but it’s huge) Should the SEC/B1G start their own with all those blue bloods, the NCAA March madness will be a shell of itself in just about everything that has to do with March madness.
So you are of the opinion there will be no more expansion???
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FSU/Clemson have the ability to pay an actual solid number (cheaper) and retain their media rights. To leave for the 2026 season it’s $165 million and goes down $18 million every season after. Theres nothing to enforce if they pay that money.
The problem with your last sentence is their media pay will still be behind the SEC/B1G, that’s the whole reason they threw a shit fit in the first place. If they have a place in the SEC/B1G they aren’t staying in the ACC. The money is simply better in one of those two conferences. And I don’t agree this gave the ACC stability for 5 years. Feels like it just confirmed their demise.
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That is what I am talking about. The House settlement is being paid for over the next 10 years from the billion dollars of revenue from March Madness. That's the only way the NCAA can afford to pay a $3 billion settlement amount. That is $3 billion that can't be paid out to teams in the next 10 years, although some may come from cust in other places, too.
The only expansion I see will happen in or around 2030-ish when the B1G's contact is up for renewal. That is why the ACC GOR and exit fees drop down until that year. I believe that only ND is guaranteed a landing spot, and ironically they don't want it and really would have no incentive to take it with a 14 team CFP where they will get in every year. FSU and Clemson may have slots, but we need to see what happens in the next 6 years. I have a feeling that if the money is close they would prefer to stay in the ACC and get into the CFP every year. They won't have that easy path anywhere else.
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What you typed doesn't have anything to do with the GOR being ironclad. It is. Every agreement is always open for negotiation. Here, the ACC took a definitive 6 years to get something, as opposed to dragging out litigation. A GOR, which FSU and Clemson will have to sign to get into the SEC or B1G, should they be invited, is still ironclad. They buyout would have been the same mechanism had they not done all this. The exit fee would have gone down every year, and the amount to buy out of the GOR would have done the same. Those two were leaving at some point around 2032 when the costs would have been something they could have afforded. The gained 2 years, the ACC has certainty for 6 years.
We will see on the TV payouts. If FSU and Clemson dominate football, they will get fairly close to what the SEC and B1G teams get. They will have a hard time making up the CFP money. That said, they have to realize going into the SEC means they will go from being in the CFP every year (I am being nice ... Clemson barely made it this year, and FSU didn't come close) to making it every few years. If a school the size of FSU can't find a way to make up $20 million a year, they are a poor university. Hell, I have 4 frat brothers from Vandy who could easily make up $20 million a year if they were so inclined. And FSU has way more alumni than Vandy.
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ND doesn’t live off their own TV contract alone they get 22mm from the ACC and all their other sports are full members.
If the ACC takes a severe downgrade because members leave that cash is going to go down and ND needs it to compete. At that point the P2 starts getting more attractive especially when you consider that the P2 is eventually going to take control of the post season if not pull out of completely and form a playoff between just the two conferences.
ND will stay independent as long as they possibly can but don’t be surprised the closer we get to 2036 the numbers stop working for independence.
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I looked at ND's situation a while ago, and my recollection is that they don't get that much from the ACC. Plus, they get to keep all their CFP money which was $20 million this year.
See AI below. They are getting $17M + $67 million + 20 million. The made $104 million this year, far more than any one team in any conference.
Starting in 2026 the CFP formula changes and they get $12 million, and then the $67 million for a total for $79 million, without the ACC share. So if the ACC went away, they would still be with P2 money. Plus, they don't care. They have enough rich people to raise all the money they need.
Here is what AI found:
Notre Dame receives a partial share from the ACC as a football independent, receiving around $17 million annually from the ACC's media deals, in addition to its own media deals with NBC.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
- ACC Media Deal Revenue:
Notre Dame receives approximately $17 million annually from the ACC's media deals, as part of its scheduling agreement with the conference.
- Total Revenue:
This $17 million, combined with the approximately $50 million Notre Dame receives from its TV deal with NBC, results in a total annual revenue of around $67 million.
- Independent Status:
Notre Dame's football program is an independent, meaning it does not belong to a conference for football, but participates in other sports through the ACC.
- CFP Payouts:
As an independent, Notre Dame keeps 100% of any CFP payouts, which is a significant advantage compared to conference members who must share the money with their conference.
- CFP Revenue:
In the new six-year CFP agreement starting in 2026, Notre Dame is expected to receive a base payout of approximately $12 million annually, which is in the same ballpark as ACC and Big 12 schools.
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So you’re saying they aren’t getting that settlement if they get a few ACC teams and start their own March Madness within 10 years?
The questions with this is how close is the money? Because while I get the path is easier, it seems Clemson/FSU still has a problem with getting paid less while doing more compared to the likes of the Mississippi States and Purdues of the SEC/B1G who are getting paid because they are in those conferences.
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I’m not arguing GoR isn’t ironclad. I’m merely stating the situation the ACC and its members find themselves in because of this newly signed settlement. $165 million while still a huge number is much less then the $500 million plus some suggested it would cost to get out by 2026. And it goes down yearly after that. It’s given those that want to leave a much easier out to do such. Ultimately imo causing the ACCs eventual demise.
But when it’s all said and done yearly does making those CFP appearances as member of the ACC get them close (and what’s close?) monetarily compared to being a member of the SEC/B1G and not making the CFP? And those last few sentences you are showing why FSU/Clemson so badly want in the SEC/B1G. Why should they as potential CFP entrants yearly (in the ACC) have to make up $20 million when dregs in the SEC/B1G don’t have to? This is why they want to leave where they are.
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One of the things that the House settlement did that was good for the non-P2 teams is that it meant that they P2 couldn't make a dramatic change like that. So, yes, the P2 can't start their own March Madness for 10 years. It was that stability that got the non-P2 on board with the settlement.
Sure ... that makes sense. We'll see if the ACC can get creative enough, or if ESPN will pay more in 2030-ish to keep them together if it is in ESPN's best interest. Gun to head it's hard to see the ACC sticking together. But, FSU and Clemson had better understand that they have only been in some of the CFPs and that's playing against crappy teams. They might not fare so well with a P2 schedule. Yeah, you got the money, but you are now a mid-team in a P2 conference.