Do FSU & Clemson Have A Landing Spot?

[WhosYourDawggy]

I’m not arguing GoR isn’t ironclad. I’m merely stating the situation the ACC and its members find themselves in because of this newly signed settlement. $165 million while still a huge number is much less then the $500 million plus some suggested it would cost to get out by 2026. And it goes down yearly after that. It’s given those that want to leave a much easier out to do such. Ultimately imo causing the ACCs eventual demise.

But when it’s all said and done yearly does making those CFP appearances as member of the ACC get them close (and what’s close?) monetarily compared to being a member of the SEC/B1G and not making the CFP? And those last few sentences you are showing why FSU/Clemson so badly want in the SEC/B1G. Why should they as potential CFP entrants yearly (in the ACC) have to make up $20 million when dregs in the SEC/B1G don’t have to? This is why they want to leave where they are.

Those teams were going to be able to leave in 2032-ish anyway. The $500 million got down to an acceptable level by then. So, they probably got 2 years early, while ESPN and the ACC got stability for 5 seasons. I still question whether the P2 will really want them. By 2030, each team will be getting close to $100 million. I am not sure that anyone other than ND can generated that.

The comparison isn't to the dregs of the P2 - they are already in the club. The question is whether they can generate enough to warrant a full share of the pie to get into the club. And, do the mid and low teams want 2 more teams that will beat them annually.

 

[ralphiewvu]

One of the things that the House settlement did that was good for the non-P2 teams is that it meant that they P2 couldn't make a dramatic change like that. So, yes, the P2 can't start their own March Madness for 10 years. It was that stability that got the non-P2 on board with the settlement.

Sure ... that makes sense. We'll see if the ACC can get creative enough, or if ESPN will pay more in 2030-ish to keep them together if it is in ESPN's best interest. Gun to head it's hard to see the ACC sticking together. But, FSU and Clemson had better understand that they have only been in some of the CFPs and that's playing against crappy teams. They might not fare so well with a P2 schedule. Yeah, you got the money, but you are now a mid-team in a P2 conference.

I did not know that first part. Thanks for the info.

Honestly I think FSU/Clemson while not wanting to admit mid tier status will try and prove they won’t but if it fails oh well, they are still cashing that big check yearly.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Those teams were going to be able to leave in 2032-ish anyway. The $500 million got down to an acceptable level by then. So, they probably got 2 years early, while ESPN and the ACC got stability for 5 seasons. I still question whether the P2 will really want them. By 2030, each team will be getting close to $100 million. I am not sure that anyone other than ND can generated that.

The comparison isn't to the dregs of the P2 - they are already in the club. The question is whether they can generate enough to warrant a full share of the pie to get into the club. And, do the mid and low teams want 2 more teams that will beat them annually.

The questions you are asking here are very fair. I’m not totally convinced the SEC wants ether FSU or Clemson. The thing helping FSU and UNC to leave imo is the threat of espn losing those schools to the B1G/FOX. I think if that threat wasn’t there, there would have been no settlement and ESPN/ACC would have told FSU/Clemson to pound sand. And I also don’t think FSU/Clemson/UNC are generating a hundred million yearly each.

The way matchups are prioritized now helps FSU/Clemson dearly. Thats why I think too ultimately they’ll go (somewhere). For me it’s the hope the B12 can add a few ACC teams in the east, preferably UL, VaTech, NCst and one other. But the right things would need to happen and that feels like it’ll be closer to 2036 if it would happen.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

The questions you are asking here are very fair. I’m not totally convinced the SEC wants ether FSU or Clemson. The thing helping FSU and UNC to leave imo is the threat of espn losing those schools to the B1G/FOX. I think if that threat wasn’t there, there would have been no settlement and ESPN/ACC would have told FSU/Clemson to pound sand. And I also don’t think FSU/Clemson/UNC are generating a hundred million yearly each.

The way matchups are prioritized now helps FSU/Clemson dearly. Thats why I think too ultimately they’ll go (somewhere). For me it’s the hope the B12 can add a few ACC teams in the east, preferably UL, VaTech, NCst and one other. But the right things would need to happen and that feels like it’ll be closer to 2036 if it would happen.

UNC is the enigma ... they were like 80th in TV viewership last year. With Belichek, there will be a surge, but how long does that last? Plus, they have the NCSU problem to deal with. FSU/Clemson v. any P2, especially top P2 becomes a 2-3 million game, 4+ against the top teams. UNC, not at all. No one cares about UNC v. Purdue/Minny/Indiana/Rutgers/Vandy/MSU/Kentucky. UNC is not a national brand in football.

The SEC has more top teams capable of competing for a NC - Bama, UGA, Texas, OU, UF, AU, LSU, UTjr - all have won NCs since 1998. The B1G can't come close to saying that. You have tOSU, UM, PSU, and Ore. Throw in USC as a team that might come back. Adding FSU and Clemson helps them a lot.

Let's also remember that the SEC crushed the B1G in TV numbers this year. The B1G needs them more than the SEC does.

 

[ralphiewvu]

UNC is the enigma ... they were like 80th in TV viewership last year. With Belichek, there will be a surge, but how long does that last? Plus, they have the NCSU problem to deal with. FSU/Clemson v. any P2, especially top P2 becomes a 2-3 million game, 4+ against the top teams. UNC, not at all. No one cares about UNC v. Purdue/Minny/Indiana/Rutgers/Vandy/MSU/Kentucky. UNC is not a national brand in football.

The SEC has more top teams capable of competing for a NC - Bama, UGA, Texas, OU, UF, AU, LSU, UTjr - all have won NCs since 1998. The B1G can't come close to saying that. You have tOSU, UM, PSU, and Ore. Throw in USC as a team that might come back. Adding FSU and Clemson helps them a lot.

Let's also remember that the SEC crushed the B1G in TV numbers this year. The B1G needs them more than the SEC does.

I think for the SEC it’d be about getting into the state of north Carolina but also having a basketball blue blood to help with eventually having their own March Madness. Yes UNC isn’t some massive TV rating machine for football. But their basketball team does damn good ratings wise and that’s probably something espn would be willing to shell out for. As for the NCst problem, the legislature is trying to introduce a bill that makes both schools play each other in the big sports. That wouldn’t have to be done if they were going to be in the same conference long term.

The B1Gs not going to add Clemson. While Clemson’s a good school academically they aren’t going to pass other schools for them imo. FSU is interesting because while they aren’t AAU, they used to be and could potentially get it back. I admit I was shocked the B1G didn’t add Stanford when they went West.

I don’t think ether has to add but if they want to break away they’ll likely need to not leave a few to do so. Time will tell.

 

[Deep Creek]

ND will stay independent as long as they possibly can but don’t be surprised the closer we get to 2036 the numbers stop working for independence.

2036? Odds are 50/50 I won’t even be alive!

 

[Deep Creek]

They might not fare so well with a P2 schedule. Yeah, you got the money, but you are now a mid-team in a P2 conference.

But that trade off doesn’t seem to bother the bottom dwellers in the P2. As long as the dollars roll in all is good.

 

[Deep Creek]

The SEC has more top teams capable of competing for a NC - Bama, UGA, Texas, OU, UF, AU, LSU, UTjr - all have won NCs since 1998. The B1G can't come close to saying that. You have tOSU, UM, PSU, and Ore. Throw in USC as a team that might come back. Adding FSU and Clemson helps them a lot.

Let's also remember that the SEC crushed the B1G in TV numbers this year. The B1G needs them more than the SEC does.

I don’t recall PSU or Oregon winning a natty since 1998. But my memory sucks?

 

[ralphiewvu]

2036? Odds are 50/50 I won’t even be alive!

You are going to out live us all

 

[Deep Creek]

You are going to out live us all

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think for the SEC it’d be about getting into the state of north Carolina but also having a basketball blue blood to help with eventually having their own March Madness. Yes UNC isn’t some massive TV rating machine for football. But their basketball team does damn good ratings wise and that’s probably something espn would be willing to shell out for. As for the NCst problem, the legislature is trying to introduce a bill that makes both schools play each other in the big sports. That wouldn’t have to be done if they were going to be in the same conference long term.

The B1Gs not going to add Clemson. While Clemson’s a good school academically they aren’t going to pass other schools for them imo. FSU is interesting because while they aren’t AAU, they used to be and could potentially get it back. I admit I was shocked the B1G didn’t add Stanford when they went West.

I don’t think ether has to add but if they want to break away they’ll likely need to not leave a few to do so. Time will tell.

The money isn't there from hoops, even UNC, IMO. I would love for that to happen ... a couple SEC games in the Triangle every weekend. Sign me up. But I can't see the SEC schools being willing to take a $5-$10 million haircut to bring in UNC.

FSU was never AAU. Nebraska was and then lost it right after they joined the B1G. In fact, until the past few years they used to not even be in the top 100 schools. They have moved up dramatically. The selection of USF over FSU was a big blow to them. Also, AAU is all about federal grant money. Whelp, that's going to be going away to a large degree. Seems that someone found out about the scam of university research, and that's coming to a screeching halt. Whether that means they will want more or fewer members because of that, I don't know.

Clemson doesn't have a medical school, and that's basically a requirement. It's one of the reasons that UGA is not AAU, and why they just announced a medical school in Athens. The Medical College of Georgia is not related to UGA.

All this will be interesting because we have no idea what the landscape will be in 6 years.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I don’t recall PSU or Oregon winning a natty since 1998. But my memory sucks?

That's my point ... the SEC has far more schools capable of winning a NC and pointed out that all of those had since 1998. The B1G has had 3 teams that have won NC since 1998 and I was being gracious to point out that they did have some other teams that are pretty good and might one day - Ore, PSU. But the SEC top is far deeper than the B1G.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

But that trade off doesn’t seem to bother the bottom dwellers in the P2. As long as the dollars roll in all is good.

You can't compare those in the club with those who want to get into the club. Those in the club don' have a choice. They are n't going to have a better chance by leaving the club. If FSU and Clemson have a landing spot, they have to decide between access to the CFP v. money. They aren't the same thing, IMO.

 

[Jon Deaux]

2036? Odds are 50/50 I won’t even be alive!

That might be the odds on "college" sports being alive by then.

 

[Innermind]

I looked at ND's situation a while ago, and my recollection is that they don't get that much from the ACC. Plus, they get to keep all their CFP money which was $20 million this year.

See AI below. They are getting $17M + $67 million + 20 million. The made $104 million this year, far more than any one team in any conference.

Starting in 2026 the CFP formula changes and they get $12 million, and then the $67 million for a total for $79 million, without the ACC share. So if the ACC went away, they would still be with P2 money. Plus, they don't care. They have enough rich people to raise all the money they need.

Here is what AI found:

Notre Dame receives a partial share from the ACC as a football independent, receiving around $17 million annually from the ACC's media deals, in addition to its own media deals with NBC.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• ACC Media Deal Revenue:
  Notre Dame receives approximately $17 million annually from the ACC's media deals, as part of its scheduling agreement with the conference.
  
  
• Total Revenue:
  This $17 million, combined with the approximately $50 million Notre Dame receives from its TV deal with NBC, results in a total annual revenue of around $67 million.
  
  
• Independent Status:
  Notre Dame's football program is an independent, meaning it does not belong to a conference for football, but participates in other sports through the ACC.
  
  
• CFP Payouts:
  As an independent, Notre Dame keeps 100% of any CFP payouts, which is a significant advantage compared to conference members who must share the money with their conference.
  
  
• CFP Revenue:
  In the new six-year CFP agreement starting in 2026, Notre Dame is expected to receive a base payout of approximately $12 million annually, which is in the same ballpark as ACC and Big 12 schools.

I believe you added in $17 million twice for Notre Dame's amount made this year... so it's closer to $87 million, not $104 million... but that $87 million figure depends on the actual NBC money, which is only an estimate:
ACC $17 million
NBC $50 million (estimate)
CFP $20

And even in years the Irish don't make the playoffs, they will still make excellent money with a figure of approx. $67 million (ACC $17 million + NBC estimated $50 million)

I remember back when Notre Dame was renegotiating their NBC contract, they stated that they knew they weren't going to earn as much as either SEC or B1G schools, but they just wanted to be close to those two conferences (within $15 million is what I read).

Notre Dame feels that their independence is worth making approx. $15 million less annually than the SEC and B1G schools. Of course if the Irish progress far in the playoffs, then they will erase that $15 million difference in any given year that they keep winning multiple playoff games.

However, I've also read that if Notre Dame plus a good partner school (such as Miami) join the B1G, then the annual payouts in the future under new media contracts could be approx. $130 million for each B1G member.

 

[Deep Creek]

You can't compare those in the club with those who want to get into the club. Those in the club don' have a choice. They are n't going to have a better chance by leaving the club. If FSU and Clemson have a landing spot, they have to decide between access to the CFP v. money. They aren't the same thing, IMO.

No doubt the don’t have a better choice. Those already in the club just have to be content with remaining a bottom dweller and cashing their checks.

 

[Deep Creek]

That might be the odds on "college" sports being alive by then.

College sports and I die at the same time. Cool. I won’t miss it when I’m gone!

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I believe you added in $17 million twice for Notre Dame's amount made this year... so it's closer to $87 million, not $104 million... but that $87 million figure depends on the actual NBC money, which is only an estimate:
ACC $17 million
NBC $50 million (estimate)
CFP $20

And even in years the Irish don't make the playoffs, they will still make excellent money with a figure of approx. $67 million (ACC $17 million + NBC estimated $50 million)

I remember back when Notre Dame was renegotiating their NBC contract, they stated that they knew they weren't going to earn as much as either SEC or B1G schools, but they just wanted to be close to those two conferences (within $15 million is what I read).

Notre Dame feels that their independence is worth making approx. $15 million less annually than the SEC and B1G schools. Of course if the Irish progress far in the playoffs, then they will erase that $15 million difference in any given year that they keep winning multiple playoff games.

However, I've also read that if Notre Dame plus a good partner school (such as Miami) join the B1G, then the annual payouts in the future under new media contracts could be approx. $130 million for each B1G member.

Yeah, looks like I double counted it. They will also drop in the CFP. For one more year they are awarding shares for wins. Starting in 2026 it's a set amount regardless of performance.

I just don't see them getting rid of their independence. They can get a single alumni to stroke a check for whatever money they need. Money will never be a problem for ND.

 

[Red_Alert]

The money isn't there from hoops, even UNC, IMO. I would love for that to happen ... a couple SEC games in the Triangle every weekend. Sign me up. But I can't see the SEC schools being willing to take a $5-$10 million haircut to bring in UNC.

FSU was never AAU. Nebraska was and then lost it right after they joined the B1G. In fact, until the past few years they used to not even be in the top 100 schools. They have moved up dramatically. The selection of USF over FSU was a big blow to them. Also, AAU is all about federal grant money. Whelp, that's going to be going away to a large degree. Seems that someone found out about the scam of university research, and that's coming to a screeching halt. Whether that means they will want more or fewer members because of that, I don't know.

Clemson doesn't have a medical school, and that's basically a requirement. It's one of the reasons that UGA is not AAU, and why they just announced a medical school in Athens. The Medical College of Georgia is not related to UGA.

All this will be interesting because we have no idea what the landscape will be in 6 years.

Nebraska has a great med school (UNMC), but still lost their AAU status because AAU changed their requirements to it having to be on campus.
UNMC's campus is in Omaha.

 

[ralphiewvu]

The money isn't there from hoops, even UNC, IMO. I would love for that to happen ... a couple SEC games in the Triangle every weekend. Sign me up. But I can't see the SEC schools being willing to take a $5-$10 million haircut to bring in UNC.

FSU was never AAU. Nebraska was and then lost it right after they joined the B1G. In fact, until the past few years they used to not even be in the top 100 schools. They have moved up dramatically. The selection of USF over FSU was a big blow to them. Also, AAU is all about federal grant money. Whelp, that's going to be going away to a large degree. Seems that someone found out about the scam of university research, and that's coming to a screeching halt. Whether that means they will want more or fewer members because of that, I don't know.

Clemson doesn't have a medical school, and that's basically a requirement. It's one of the reasons that UGA is not AAU, and why they just announced a medical school in Athens. The Medical College of Georgia is not related to UGA.

All this will be interesting because we have no idea what the landscape will be in 6 years.

ESPN is going to have a say in this. Yes they’ll have to pay them or at least work something out but any additions likely aren’t getting full shares right away. I don’t think any haircuts will happen at all even adding UNC.

There had been rumors on X the B1G presidents did a poll in which Georgia Tech was one of the schools which would get approval should they decide to expand. Now I highly doubt FOX and other partners were in with that. So who really knows what the B1G will do. But if espn feels they could lose one of the 3 (UNC, FSU, CU) they’ll put them in the SEC. Because that seems like all of their first choice for a conference.

Time will tell indeed.