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FSU Leaving the ACC?
- Thread starter Blackshirts BLVD
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FSU was only there for the basketball boost.
Tobacco Road (original ACC teams) now suck in MBB.
/ sarcasm
Tobacco Road (original ACC teams) now suck in MBB.
/ sarcasm
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I kind of agree, but where are they going to go? In 2036 the only teams that might provide value to the B1G or the SEC are Clemson and FSU. Miami and UNC might be able to, but after 13 years of $55 million less than other schools in the B1G and SEC, I am not confident in that.
There only 3 teams that could carry their own weight in the B1G or the SEC ... ND for sure, Clemson and FSU maybe. That's it.
The ACC and PAC should try to figure out how to get their fans to actually watch and support their teams. Otherwise, they will be stuck somewhere between P2 and G5 status forever. I am not sure that's good for the game, but it is what it is.
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2036 is along way off and you certainly may be right, things may stand Pat.
But I truly believe the B1G isn’t done and after adding two more out west, they’ll want to get some in the East. Is the SEC really going to want the B1G in Florida, Georgia or South Carolina? I doubt It. And all these teams not providing value is hard to do considering you are playing Wake Forest and Boston College. A conference schedule with Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee shouldn’t be compared because it’s not.
I said long ago if admitted into the ACC, WVU would take tips from schools on academia in exchange for showing 80% of the league how to support a football team.
Probably... but football (and this country) might not even "be around past 2036 in it's current state" either...
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Probably... but football (and this country) might not even "be around past 2036 in it's current state" either...
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It really is hard to know what it will be like. Hell, I'd be willing to bet that by 2036 student-athletes will be considered employees.
The key thing to remember are the economics of CFB, at least as we know them today:
1. Only football matters ... no other sport generates the income to be relevant to leagues that are football dominant.
2. Your games against those in the conference that you are going need to generate close to or more than 4 million viewers 3-5 times per year. Clemson v. UGA, and FSU v. Alabama do that. Wake v. UGa doesn't, and UNC v. Bama probably doesn't. But what really matters is what does Clemson v. Ole Miss do, and FSU v. Vandy, or Miami v. Arkansas. In other words, can "your" brand generate the eyeballs, not the brand of the team you play?
3. Can you get into the CFP? Not while you are in the ACC, but if you get into the SEC, can you get into the CFP and earn a share or more? If you can't (UNC, VaTech, Miami) then your value is seriously lowered.
4. By 2036 each school in the SEC will be making more than $125 million per year. Can you add to that such that the bottom tier teams are willing to lower their chances of being competitive? Beacuse if not, the argument is growth for growth sake and I just don't see anyone doing that.
What could change this? SCOTUS decisions that players have to be paid directly by the schools, or a decision to go to a football only conference, that type of thing. It would have to be a major upheaval and at some point I think the tradition of college sports stops that.
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I get what you mean and you make some valid points.
But 50 years from now I still wouldn’t believe The B1G wouldn’t take UVA and UNC let alone in 13 years. Both are absolutely academic powerhouses in new states (not that location matters as much anymore) that are/have been relevant in the second biggest sport. Sure football drives it but getting a huge brand like UNC is one thing at the very least a network like FOX would pay for. They’ll need partners and UVA and Georgia Tech (academic powerhouse in Atlanta) would fit the bill and give them games every year in SEC territory. Would the SEC really let the B1G take any ACC school they wanted without a fight? I don’t believe that. At least not in 13 years.
It would also make ND rethink their situation although if they can find a home for other sports I doubt they’d jump to football.
I get what you mean that football is driving this but I Don’t ever see a day on the B1G passing on UNC and UVA. And then that could start some dominos
I dunno... Reading the last part of your last sentence, it's more likely Money is gonna trump "tradition" anyway. Who knows?
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Your point regarding UNC and UVA are interesting in that the bottom tier of the SEC might be more willing to take them instead of Clemson and FSU only because they know they can beat them. But if you look at eyeballs, UNC and UVA bring nothing to the table.
46 North Carolina — 849K
49 Georgia Tech — 837K
76 Virginia Tech — 264K
79 Virginia — 237K
91 Duke — 115.7K
The Virginia numbers are terrible. You'd be better off taking Duke for the basketball to go with UNC, if you wanted UNC and needed a partner. And the likelihood that any of those teams will bring in CFP shares playing in the SEC is nil and none.
I think when the 9 game IC schedule, formatted 3-6-6 comes into play next year that by 2036 they are going to see that screwing with that setup by adding more teams just won't make sense. I've followed SEC football for 55+ years and I think the new scheduling is going to be revolutionary. The number of good games in a given year is almost going to quadruple. I don't think they will mess with that success.
That's why I keep asking people, why do you think they expand? It won' the financial. And, if it isn't financial it damn well better be something really, really important.
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I agree that money will almost always trump tradition. I agree with you, and I wouldn't bet against it. The problem is I have a hard time seeing the money. But, 13 years is a long, long time. I hope to be alive to see it.I dunno... Reading the last part of your last sentence, it's more likely Money is gonna trump "tradition" anyway. Who knows?
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I get eyeballs are important but it isn’t the only thing. Those eyeballs will get a lot higher in the SEC imo even playing vandy and ole miss compared to some of UNCs games now. Given UNC is a flagship in a new state that is an absolute blue blood in basketball, I don’t truly believe the SEC would say no nor will I ever believe the B1G would.
Virginias different in that I don’t believe they’d ever get an SEC invite or chose them over the B1G. Again just my opinion but they seem more B1G cultured.
To answer your question I truly believe it gives the B1G a sense of power adding Teams like UNC and hopefully for them ND to one day (with the SEC) breakaway and have their own league/championship. Good Gog I hope I’m wrong but I could see it happening. And that’s too where revenue sharing could get split in different levels.
Let me ask you, if the B1G with the blessing of FOX/NBC/CBSinvites 4 ACC schools (after 2036) will the SEC/ESPN stand pat and not put up a fight or will they themselves too start tearing up the ACC and challenge the B1G for the ACC teams?
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I assume you mean in 2036, because no one is getting out of the ACC GOR today.
If, in 2036, the B1G went after UNC, Clemson, FSU and one other school, I really don't think the SEC would simply act strictly in defense. It would have to make sense financially. As I have stated the last few days, you have at least 8 schools that currently have a very small shot at winning the SEC or getting into the CFP. What could you say to Ole Miss, Arky, USCjr, Vandy, and MSU that would justify taking at 2 schools that are likely to be better than you on a year in year out basis? More money might work - see OU and TX - but I don't think 4 ACC schools bring in enough to get full shares, and I don't see the SEC going to fractional shares. Why would those 8 teams agree to take a lesser share to bring in teams better than them? And, its probably more than 8 ... ATM, Auburn, UTjr, UF wouldn't want two teams in that in many years will be better than them. UGA won't always be where they are now. So, I don't see the conference wanting to grow for the sake of growing.
I know a lot about the economics of CFB, but I don't it all. In fact, I know a small percentage compared to the people in charge. So, maybe having the B1G in the SEC's footprint actually would lessen the value of the SEC ... in other words they may not add to the pie, but having them in another conference might subtract from the pie. Sure, if that's the case, then maybe they act. But, at the end of the day I think the SEC would be fine with the B1G diluting their per team value to bring in teams that won't be all that more competitive than they are now.
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Another item is that people talk on here like the leagues actually go out and specifically recruit teams. I think it works more like the teams reach out to the conference for feelers and league discusses to see if it is a good fit and review the numbers, etc. I don't think it is near as organized of a process as it is made out to be on this thread.
So it isn't like the SEC will say: "Hey we want UVA, UNC, Clemson, FSU and then go after them." I think it is more Clemson comes to SEC and says "we want in." SEC reviews and comes up with plan including how they fit in with scheduling, tv contract, etc. and they review it for all sports. They come back and may hint for them to "bring friends." Clemson goes and gets FSU, UNC, etc. and inquires about moving to SEC. (Granted we haven't seen more than a 2-team move yet so even all of that is very speculative since it has never occurred).
Regarding GOR; assuming we are correct on our interpretation of it since nobody on here has every read it, I would say 2032 might be the earliest. That is 2-years early but keep in mind that the value of the ACC Contract and Media Rights buy-out is lower so they could effectively get out in 2032 for what it took OU and Texas to get out of a year on the Big12.
The logic behind Clemson and FSU going so public in their criticism is interesting. It still makes me think there is something to the story that we might be missing...
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I think they were just trying to get the ACC to consider uneven allocations. Pretty sure they were told to fuck off by everyone else.
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Yeah I mean after 2036. Honestly there is one way to dissolve it but it’d require 8 schools as folks have mentioned (if that’s indeed true). But since ESPN has literally no incentive to pay more for ACC teams then they are right now it’d require the B1G/FOX to back channel and get 8 to dissolve the GoR join them. No I don’t see the B1G even Threatening that but that is one way if 8 leaving indeed would dissolve it.
I can absolutely see your point that the SEC wouldn’t take anyone because they don’t need to. And to be fair I think This all starts with the B1G just as I believe there is certain schools the B1G may say no to. But imo the B1G/FOX isn’t done and eventually they’ll need to break up the ACC to get the ultimate prize left (ND). With believing that I also Believe the SEC/ESPN would fight for certain teams so the B1G doesn’t come into certain states/areas. That’s where I believe some if not most would take unequal revenue sharing on A trial basis to guarantee themselves a seat in the P2. I mean we have (allegedly) heard uDub and UO are telling the B1G they’ll do that. It’s not totally crazy to think most in the ACC would do it.
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Obviously there is back channeling and yes it most likely started by the universities looking to join.
As for dissolving the GoR as I stated above, given ESPN has the ACC these teams wanting out will basically need the B1G/FOX to invite 8 which the teams announce they are applying to and force ESPN/SEC to rethink it and add which I highly doubt ether would do right now. I truly think this GoR is going to be good until 2036. Texas and OU paid 50 million each for leaving a year early. 8 years from now That 50 could Be much more and there would still be 4 years left on it. These teams aren’t taking $300+ million haircuts.
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I think ESPN would oppose it on principal but if the ACC miraculously found a way to get 8 teams to vote the GOR down the B1G isn’t going sit back and watch. They are going hard after ND some of the ACC schools and FOX won’t care.
The chances are slim for about 5 years and then things are going to heat up.
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Why 5 years ... that still leaves 8 years of GOR and media rights. That's still a quarter of a billion per team to get out. Who's paying that?
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Agreed, they would take certain schools for sure now but they aren’t taking 8 and ESPN has zero incentive to pay more for schools they are already paying on the cheap for. Not sure 5 years itll be affordable but things can change so who knows.