Interesting article on no more expansion ...

[Volbound1700]

What if the BIG nabbed Stanford, Cal, Washington and …Kansas?

Kansas could be a possibility as well.

Kansas Football screws them. It you just merge Kansas and Kansas State into a single school and they would have likely been picked up in the last wave of realignment. KSU football combined with Kansas Basketball would be attractive.

It is kind of like the Arizonas. The fact that they are two schools instead of a single fanbase and program hurts their chances.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

@WhosYourDawggy

So it looks like you may have been wrong about $ 100M requirement. B1G is going to be getting ~ $ 70M per team based on my understanding of the new TV Contract and that is an AMAZING Contract and the best one so far.

I am also hearing more rumors of expansion. Finebaum (sure he isn't the best resource but he has access to far more resources than any of us including the SEC Administrative Office) stated that another SEC expansion is inevitable.

I don't see it happening anytime soon but I could be wrong.

A lot of rumbling about OU and Texas coming in 2023. The guy in this video gave some details about it:

No 100% items but there are some strange coincidences going on.

First, that was a rounded number I threw out. It could be off $10 million here or there. Candidly, I think my $100 million is low. It's probably closer to $110 million.

Second, the numbers I am talking about are the 2026 numbers, not just the numbers you are hearing today. The reason for this is that the CFP triples to quadruples in 2026. So, if you aren't a team that gets a per team CFP share, you aren't valuable. For the SEC, their deal grows by $250 million in 2025. So all the numbers that a team has to meet is what can the do in 2025/2026. That's going to be $100+ million.

Third, the $70 million per team you are hearing today is just part of the equation for the B1G. Revenue = media rights (that's the $70 million) + CFP money (that's about $60 million now, at least tripled in 2026) + bowl money + conference licensing. By 2026/27, with the new CFP, the B1G will be distributing $100+ million per team.

I just don't see SEC expansion. The ACC GOR prevents it.

OU and Texas have to get around the GOR, and they haven't thus far. Perhaps it's negotiated away. But the main reason I think they wait until 2025 is that the CFP expands that year (that's the 2026 CFP). The SEC won't want to change its schedule to a 9 game IC (3-6-6) until there is a 12 team playoff. If they change their sce

What I have found about Finebaum and a lot of other talking heads is that they have sources, for sure, but they also get caught up in the expansion buzz because it's good for ratings. I really doubt that Sankey or his crew are taking Finebaum into their confidence. Just use commonsense. The ACC GOR would be in litigation for a couple years, at least. The SEC would be sued for tortious interference of contract. That's not going to happen.

Too many people go on and on about growth for growth's sake. They just aren't going to do that, IMO. The SEC could not care less that the B1G is expanding to the west coast. If anything they probably think this lessens the conference due to the distances and the well documented problems associated with that. Just ask the WV people here what it is like to be in a conference where your rivals are a thousand miles away.

Finally, the SEC is relatively locked into it's deal. Per The Athletic, they get a pro-rata bump for teams added. They may be able to negotiate with ESPN by going to a 9 game IC schedule, but just adding teams doesn't mean they get more money per school. And that is what counts.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Dennis Dodd's reporting has been full of contradictions and hedges, that's my analysis. Did the anti-trust stuff just disappear?

There's never been a heating up or cooling. It's about timing.

1) Big Ten gets their media deal
2) Notre Dame makes a decision on joining or not
3) Big Ten expansion to 20 is announced

With the language around expansion in the contract and Warren's comments, going to 20 is a foregone conclusion. It's just about when ND makes a decision and then deciding how to get to 20 if they say no.

Go listen to Bruce Feldman. He's saying the same things I've been told by people more in the loop. Feldman doesn't say things just for a sound bite. If he's talking, I'm listening.

Again, it might happen. But the article you quoted doesn't say that.

 

[Wild Turkey]

IMO this is old information. Timing of the leak is interesting

Here is another article on that:

Oregon Is In 'Preliminary Discussions' With The Big Ten: REPORT

The Oregon Ducks are reportedly getting the ball rolling on trying to join the Big Ten. The two sides are meeting.

www.outkick.com

Notably, Kevin Warren, outgoing Oregon president Michael Schill and AD Rob Mullens are not involved in the talks right now. That does beg the question of who is actually leading the discussion and possible negotiations.

Call me when Warren and Mullens actually get involved.

 

[Volbound1700]

Teams are talking to Conferences all of the time and the Conferences listen. Sankey reference something like 20 teams probably reaching out to SEC about expansion.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

That's the reporting from last month. The article is admittedly very poor and short on facts. Dodd has done a very poor job on this story

Here's the important part:
"If there were additional games to be added in different time slots, we would certainly take a look at that. I'm sure NBC and Fox would also. Expansion, by and large, would only be a positive. But we would have to find windows and time slots to air any potential games but that would be a benefit to everybody."

1) Needs to open a timeslot they don't already have - PAC 12 schools do that
2) Need a media partner - espn
3) Don't shrink the pie - Feldman even said this might not be the case but even if you think it's true, the language in the Big Tens contract ensures that nobody will take a paycut in order to go to 20.

This is looks like a done deal, the next domino is an official decision from ND. I’d expect that in the next two months but it could be dragged out until next year. Big Ten will announce 20 by the end of 2023 at the latest but could be much sooner

Man, you are putting a lot of eggs in the Bruce Feldman basket. I assume the video below is what you are talking about.

A couple points ... he is more optimistic, but he didn't say it's going to happen. Most importantly, he made it clear this is being driven by the university Presidents, not money. If they bring in those 4 schools, then they have to be willing to get less per school. If that's what the B1G wants, that's cool by me.

It's not news that the ND decision is the next step. All signs are they stay independent. Then the B1G has a big decision about the other 4 teams. I could easily see them saying we need to have a full west division/pod. Other than money, that makes a ton of sense. Maybe they feel they are so flush with cash they are willing to do this. 4 new AAU schools, Cal and Stanford being top educational schools. It ends the Cali legislature being pricks. So all that makes sense, but we have been saying that all along so long as it isn't about money.

But, this video you are relying on does not say this is a done deal. You stating this as fact is you just trying to speak this into existence, and I get it. You are in Limbo right now and that would suck

 

[duckboy33]

Teams are talking to Conferences all of the time and the Conferences listen. Sankey reference something like 20 teams probably reaching out to SEC about expansion.

True but you don’t see meetings in the conference headquarters getting leaked to the press much

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Here is another article on that:

Oregon Is In 'Preliminary Discussions' With The Big Ten: REPORT

The Oregon Ducks are reportedly getting the ball rolling on trying to join the Big Ten. The two sides are meeting.

www.outkick.com

Notably, Kevin Warren, outgoing Oregon president Michael Schill and AD Rob Mullens are not involved in the talks right now. That does beg the question of who is actually leading the discussion and possible negotiations.

Call me when Warren and Mullens actually get involved.

This is so dumb ... it's getting rediculed on Twitter. Basically none of the stakeholders are involved. Sounds like Phil Knight talking to some TV people.

 

[RobBase]

Oregon in the Big Ten will be great.

 

[duckboy33]

Man, you are putting a lot of eggs in the Bruce Feldman basket. I assume the video below is what you are talking about.

A couple points ... he is more optimistic, but he didn't say it's going to happen. Most importantly, he made it clear this is being driven by the university Presidents, not money. If they bring in those 4 schools, then they have to be willing to get less per school. If that's what the B1G wants, that's cool by me.

It's not news that the ND decision is the next step. All signs are they stay independent. Then the B1G has a big decision about the other 4 teams. I could easily see them saying we need to have a full west division/pod. Other than money, that makes a ton of sense. Maybe they feel they are so flush with cash they are willing to do this. 4 new AAU schools, Cal and Stanford being top educational schools. It ends the Cali legislature being pricks. So all that makes sense, but we have been saying that all along so long as it isn't about money.

But, this video you are relying on does not say this is a done deal. You stating this as fact is you just trying to speak this into existence, and I get it. You are in Limbo right now and that would suck

Bruce Feldman is not going to say it’s a done deal until something is official. That’s just how he operates. Feldmans comments combined with McMurphys reporting suggests going to 20 is very likely to happen and soon. Language in the Big Tens recent contract was even set up for imminent expansion

 

[duckboy33]

This is so dumb ... it's getting rediculed on Twitter. Basically none of the stakeholders are involved. Sounds like Phil Knight talking to some TV people.

Those people don’t show up until it’s time to sign papers.

There’s gonna be another meeting in September

 

[Wizardhawk]

Most of that is clickbait because Miami and FSU can't go anywhere until 2036. If they could FSU and Clemson would be in the SEC right now because both of them have already submitted requests to join after TX and OU. If there was a way out of the GOR they would have jumped ship and no way the SEC turns down the opportunity to add TX, OU, Clemson and FSU as that would have broken the internet.

Cal is a complete joke and I'll laugh my ass off if the B1G takes them.

Stanford would be added if ND joined and wanted them.

I believe you and Washington have a shot but the path to get there is fuzzy and seems dependent on other factors or it would have happened already. I honestly have no idea what gets that trigger pulled other than ND coming on board the B1G decides to take 3 PAC teams with them. I guess other factors could exist but it doesn't include building a national conference of 30 teams.

What makes adding more west coast teams attractive, even Cal, is adding more inventory that can dominate the late game time slot. Sure, not that many stay up on the east coast, but there is typically only other PAC-12 teams playing at that hour.

PAC 12 after dark is the only reason there is any interest by the networks as it is. The more that can be stripped off so that there are always options when other west coast big 10 teams are away and doing early time slot games the better for those networks.

Even a B1G after dark game of Ohio State visiting Cal will bring in large cash flow. It doesn't compete with much.

Right now at best you can alternate some weeks so that UCLA is home while USC is on road and vice versa. I'm sure that's what USC wants. Every other week of B1G after dark for themselves. Up against whatever is left of the PAC.

The networks would prefer to take more of that inventory to monopolize that time slot.

Even for UW and Oregon, that's the main value of taking them. Late night inventory.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Those people don’t show up until it’s time to sign papers.

There’s gonna be another meeting in September

LOL ... I have never seen a fan more desperate than you seem to be. And I understand it. But you are being irrational.

The university president, AD, and the commissioner of the conference would be in all talks about adding new teams.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

What makes adding more west coast teams attractive, even Cal, is adding more inventory that can dominate the late game time slot. Sure, not that many stay up on the east coast, but there is typically only other PAC-12 teams playing at that hour.

PAC 12 after dark is the only reason there is any interest by the networks as it is. The more that can be stripped off so that there are always options when other west coast big 10 teams are away and doing early time slot games the better for those networks.

Even a B1G after dark game of Ohio State visiting Cal will bring in large cash flow. It doesn't compete with much.

Right now at best you can alternate some weeks so that UCLA is home while USC is on road and vice versa. I'm sure that's what USC wants. Every other week of B1G after dark for themselves. Up against whatever is left of the PAC.

The networks would prefer to take more of that inventory to monopolize that time slot.

Even for UW and Oregon, that's the main value of taking them. Late night inventory.

That makes sense, and if ESPN can carry it that makes sense. The problem is that the $8.1dollar deal wrapped up all the valuable games. Those networks aren't going to allow the B1G to suddenly move those games to late night slots.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Bruce Feldman is not going to say it’s a done deal until something is official. That’s just how he operates. Feldmans comments combined with McMurphys reporting suggests going to 20 is very likely to happen and soon. Language in the Big Tens recent contract was even set up for imminent expansion

Bruce Feldman doesn't know, LOL. If the contract doesn't have language for expansion, the lawyers committed malpractice.

Again, the idea of having a west coast has been alive the entire time. Waiting until after the contract was signed now makes sense. Waiting for ND always made sense.

What doesn't make sense, and Warren even said so, was expanding with teams who can't contribute their share. The hope that Feldman gives you is that it seems the uni presidents may be willing to forgo some per team income to grab the other 4 schools, two of which are highly sought after academic institutions.

 

[duckboy33]

LOL ... I have never seen a fan more desperate than you seem to be. And I understand it. But you are being irrational.

The university president, AD, and the commissioner of the conference would be in all talks about adding new teams.

We will see. I’ve laid out the timeline and what will happen. If I’m wrong, I’ll be here and own it.

Not sure anyone else will do the same

 

[Wild Turkey]

What makes adding more west coast teams attractive, even Cal, is adding more inventory that can dominate the late game time slot. Sure, not that many stay up on the east coast, but there is typically only other PAC-12 teams playing at that hour.

PAC 12 after dark is the only reason there is any interest by the networks as it is. The more that can be stripped off so that there are always options when other west coast big 10 teams are away and doing early time slot games the better for those networks.

Even a B1G after dark game of Ohio State visiting Cal will bring in large cash flow. It doesn't compete with much.

Right now at best you can alternate some weeks so that UCLA is home while USC is on road and vice versa. I'm sure that's what USC wants. Every other week of B1G after dark for themselves. Up against whatever is left of the PAC.

The networks would prefer to take more of that inventory to monopolize that time slot.

Even for UW and Oregon, that's the main value of taking them. Late night inventory.

I think you are grossly overrating the value of the midnight slot.

Even if you aren't do you really want all your home games to kick off at 10:30 pm Eastern? How long before Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and practically everyone that isn't west coast says fuck this?

The fun of PAC at Night is Washington State beating USC or Oregon State beating you guys because you had to play at their house and that's the only way they get on TV. You want 80 point games and crazy shit not Ohio State skull fucking Cal. Everyone is going to bed at that point.

 

[Volbound1700]

I think you are grossly overrating the value of the midnight slot.

Even if you aren't do you really want all your home games to kick off at 10:30 pm Eastern? How long before Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and practically everyone that isn't west coast says fuck this?

The fun of PAC at Night is Washington State beating USC or Oregon State beating you guys because you had to play at their house and that's the only way they get on TV. You want 80 point games and crazy shit not Ohio State skull fucking Cal. Everyone is going to bed at that point.

I am in agreement. I think that is a nice slot to feel but it likely isn't a ratings killer and ESPN could just run GameDay reruns or a Mountain West game and not lose that much $$.

It might get attention if a team is ranked in the top 5-10 but that is a dice roll.

ESPN's profits won't be made or broken based on feeling a midnight slot.

 

[Wild Turkey]

We will see. I’ve laid out the timeline and what will happen. If I’m wrong, I’ll be here and own it.

Not sure anyone else will do the same

I'll own it and I'll be happy for you. Every slot a PAC team takes is one that the SEC gets to cherry-pick from the ACC so go Ducks.

I just think you're nuts promoting that the B1G is going to form this massive coast-to-coast league and break it up into separate divisions just under the B1G brand. NO ONE is even suggesting that as a possibility but you.

Oregon needs to be super careful because if they play their cards too hard and for too long it will sink the PAC. No way other schools are going to stick around without a long-term commitment from Oregon and Washington and once one school bolts chaos will follow and the league is done. At that point, you either get in the B1G or join the Big 12 under THEIR terms and sign THEIR GOR. You literally will have zero leverage. The longer this goes on without a signed GOR the more nervous the other schools are going to get.

Remember Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah have no shot at the B1G and there is no PAC if you guys don't commit fully so they have no reason to wait on you. The shit is getting real and the stakes are high.

 

[duckboy33]

I'll own it and I'll be happy for you. Every slot a PAC team takes is one that the SEC gets to cherry-pick from the ACC so go Ducks.

I just think you're nuts promoting that the B1G is going to form this massive coast-to-coast league and break it up into separate divisions just under the B1G brand. NO ONE is even suggesting that as a possibility but you.

Oregon needs to be super careful because if they play their cards too hard and for too long it will sink the PAC. No way other schools are going to stick around without a long-term commitment from Oregon and Washington and once one school bolts chaos will follow and the league is done. At that point, you either get in the B1G or join the Big 12 under THEIR terms and sign THEIR GOR. You literally will have zero leverage. The longer this goes on without a signed GOR the more nervous the other schools are going to get.

Remember Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah have no shot at the B1G and there is no PAC if you guys don't commit fully so they have no reason to wait on you. The shit is getting real and the stakes are high.

I’m glad you’ll be willing to own it if you’re wrong because I will revisit this thread and take a victory lap