Lots of great points made. Here are some thoughts I have had ... a lot here, but no solid wall of text. I like paragraphs. I am not proofing this.
- As
@fordman84 said, it's cyclical. It will swing around at some point. But, I am not sure that it will swing as much. The swings will be a few teams moving in and out while the solid core stays the same.
- That is until coaching changes. Right now you have Dabo and Saban dominating. Day seems to be taking over for Urban Meyer. But, let's not forget that since the B1G started having a CCG, Wisconsin has won twice, Michigan State twice, PSU once, and tOSU 4 times. What changed with tOSU to win 4 of the last 5? Coaching. Lincoln Riley will be at OU for not much longer before he gets paid in the NFL. Saban will retire within the next 6 years. Will Dabo go to Bama, and if so what happens at Clemson.
- To see the cycle from the other side, look at how quickly FSU went from the penthouse to the doghouse. Oregon when from being really good, to not so much, yet appear to be on the upswing. Coaching has been the difference at USC who dominated the early 00s, and hasn't been much of a threat since. Mack Brown left and UT has been disappointing since.
- We are about to undergo seismic changes in college football that could change the landscape. With the NLI legislation coming up, can any of the also rans do something to make their school more attractive? I don't really know and it could be something where the fat get fatter as they have the money to setup NLI departments and advisors.
- Then there is the free agency that is about to come with a 1 time free transfer. I really think this could be the thing that balances out the recruiting imbalance. If someone can have a 1 time free transfer, the diamonds in the rough from the Akrons, the NC States, the Memphises will move on to bigger programs to fill gaps. But, they are more likely to go to the PSUs, UFs, UM, AUs of the world where there will be more PAT, but still a bigger stage. Take MuLLLen as an example. He's a terrible recruiter. Yet he has seemed to work the transfer portal fairly well (jury is still out, though). All his 5* but one are transfers. Same with UTjr. UGA on the other hand has lost a number of 5* and high 4* to transfer when they got recruited over. Bama's been processing players for years. The top teams will also hit the transfer portal, but their needs are less and they don't have as much PT to offer. I can see the transfer rule really helping the 5-15 teams more than the 1-5 teams.
- Much of this imbalance is a result of recruiting changes. With the Internet, the teams can find the players much easier. With bigger budgets, the big boys can get the better players. When you look at recruiting the past 5 years you see the same teams in the top 3, for the most part - Bama, UGA, tOSU, Clemson, LSU. Teams like USC, Ore, UM, UT slide in and out of 4 or 5-ish, but the top classes are going to the schools named above. Clemson is a bit of an outlier regarding rank because they had some small classes, but their average has been in the top 5 for several years now and their class last year and this year will be outstanding. I am not sure I see this changing. A huge amount of the top talent is in the south, and I don't see a lot of top talent heading north or midwest. Cali kids are coming south, not south kids going west (USC can keep some home, at Ore is doing well with a Saban disciple).
If this doesn't change, is there a schematic innovation that could balance things out? Think Chip Kelly and Oregon 10 years ago. But the rules were changed, and teams adapted. It took 1 week for schools in the SEC to adapt to the Pirate. Perhaps the emphasis on O over D could make a difference, but then we have OU as proof you have to play some defense.
- An 8 team CFP may make a difference. If more teams have a shot, some of the top talent might not concentrate at the top. The 8 team CFP will also allow teams to play much better OOC games. This could result in better recruiting and talent for at least the top 16 teams.
- Finally, I am not sure you can blame the dwindling crowds at games to the imbalance. Take some of my friends who drop $15K and more for season tickets each year. With Covid, they suddenly had $15K sitting in the bank. Some of them have setup the coolest man caves you can imagine. Multiple huge TVs, reclining chairs. These are guys who go to every game, home and away, and setup elaborate tailgates. But they are getting tired to getting up at 6am, heading to Athens, fighting traffic, setting up, going to a game any time from noon - 8:30pm. Then fighting traffic home. Dealing with bathrooms in the stadium, etc. Better to have your own food, bathroom, and not have to be in the car for hours. This will take people away from going to games.
Then you have the Covid affect where people are learning they have other options. And, the simple idea that the younger generation isn't into CFB as much as the older generation. eSports, streaming entertainment, and other interests are competing with people's time.
Interest is declining, the numbers tell us that. But, I think it is a lot more than the imbalance at the top.
