PAC12 Basketball

[duckboy33]

Big Ten isn't that great this year. I'd love for MSU to get left out because their so meh, but they'll get in. If Oregon gets in they'll be dangerous IMO. Reminds me of the team, I think 2019, that killed Wisconsin in the first round. Altman usually has them playing good at the end of the year, this year no different.

I agree about the Big Ten. My point was that a 22 win team with a winning conference record from the Big Ten won't be left out. Even if it really isn't that great of a league.

I don't think Oregon is dangerous honestly. The 2018-2019 team was actually a very good team that dealt with a lot of injuries. The difference was they got healthy (with the exception of Bol) by the end of the year and had a lot of depth for the tournament. I wasn't surprised at all when they beat Wisconsin. They had the better team. They went toe to toe with the eventual champs for like 36 minutes that year.

The difference this year is this team never recovered. After they got healthy, they just went through the next wave of injuries. This team only has 8 healthy bodies and 2 of them wouldn't be in the rotation if it weren't for injuries. On top of that, Dante and Couisnard are playing through injuries and those are the guys who really need to carry the Ducks. Last night they got fortunate that Couisnard and Shetsland both got hot while Arizona became ice cold. If this team had Bittle, Barthelemy, and Cook healthy, I think they would be a dangerous team.

 

[ericd7633]

I agree about the Big Ten. My point was that a 22 win team with a winning conference record from the Big Ten won't be left out. Even if it really isn't that great of a league.

I don't think Oregon is dangerous honestly. The 2018-2019 team was actually a very good team that dealt with a lot of injuries. The difference was they got healthy (with the exception of Bol) by the end of the year and had a lot of depth for the tournament. I wasn't surprised at all when they beat Wisconsin. They had the better team. They went toe to toe with the eventual champs for like 36 minutes that year.

The difference this year is this team never recovered. After they got healthy, they just went through the next wave of injuries. This team only has 8 healthy bodies and 2 of them wouldn't be in the rotation if it weren't for injuries. On top of that, Dante and Couisnard are playing through injuries and those are the guys who really need to carry the Ducks. Last night they got fortunate that Couisnard and Shetsland both got hot while Arizona became ice cold. If this team had Bittle, Barthelemy, and Cook healthy, I think they would be a dangerous team.

Nebraska was left out in 2018 with I think 22 wins. League was terrible that year though, so rightfully so.

I just meant I could see them win a game or two. I don't think they're as talented as the 19 team, but the projected 5 seeds don't exactly inspire alot of confidence with me. You're looking at teams like South Carolina, San Diego State, Clemson, BYU, Wisconsin etc..

You may be right about the injuries holding them back. I think it would be a cool story if they got in though.

 

[duckboy33]

Nebraska was left out in 2018 with I think 22 wins. League was terrible that year though, so rightfully so.

I just meant I could see them win a game or two. I don't think they're as talented as the 19 team, but the projected 5 seeds don't exactly inspire alot of confidence with me. You're looking at teams like South Carolina, San Diego State, Clemson, BYU, Wisconsin etc..

You may be right about the injuries holding them back. I think it would be a cool story if they got in though.

It always comes down to matchups so you may be right. Altman has done it before at Oregon. He's made the S16 twice as a 12 seed. Oregon shouldn't have been a 12 seed in 2013 but that's a whole different story. I legit thought there was a mistake in 2013 when the bracket came out. The seeding was so egregious I actually felt bad for Oklahoma State.

 

[ericd7633]

It always comes down to matchups so you may be right. Altman has done it before at Oregon. He's made the S16 twice as a 12 seed. Oregon shouldn't have been a 12 seed in 2013 but that's a whole different story. I legit thought there was a mistake in 2013 when the bracket came out. The seeding was so egregious I actually felt bad for Oklahoma State.

Yeah, I remember that 2013 seed. That was ridiculous. It was fun to see Marcus Smart get eliminated right off the bat though.

 

[duckboy33]

Yeah, I remember that 2013 seed. That was ridiculous. It was fun to see Marcus Smart get eliminated right off the bat though.

Oklahoma State fans were right to be angry. I believe they had to come out to the west coast to play Oregon as well, despite the better seeding.

 

[duckboy33]

 

[duckboy33]

PAC 12 should be a 4 bid league now. I have a feeling the committee is going to screw Colorado though.

 

[ericd7633]

PAC 12 should be a 4 bid league now. I have a feeling the committee is going to screw Colorado though.

I think they might too. I'll be posting my final bracket soon and Colorado is my first team out. I would personally pick them over Michigan State and St. John's(who are my last 2 teams in), but I think the committee will include them because of Izzo and Pitino. I actually have that as a matchup in Dayton.

 

[duckboy33]

I think they might too. I'll be posting my final bracket soon and Colorado is my first team out. I would personally pick them over Michigan State and St. John's(who are my last 2 teams in), but I think the committee will include them because of Izzo and Pitino. I actually have that as a matchup in Dayton.

Michigan State doesn't really have a case to make the tournament IMO besides the Big Ten logo on their jerseys and Izzo on the sidelines. If they get in over Colorado, the selection committee will validate my opinion about them being a joke.

I fully expect this to happen.

 

[ericd7633]

Michigan State doesn't really have a case to make the tournament IMO besides the Big Ten logo on their jerseys and Izzo on the sidelines. If they get in over Colorado, the selection committee will validate my opinion about them being a joke.

I fully expect this to happen.

Yeah, 9-14 in Q1/Q2 is pretty bad. That honestly might be unprecedented in terms of getting an at-large selection being 5 games under .500 in the first 2 quads. Plus they've looked like shit down the stretch. Having watched them a shit ton this year, they're just so meh. Their whole predictive resume is basically beating Baylor by 20.

 

[duckboy33]

Yeah, 9-14 in Q1/Q2 is pretty bad. That honestly might be unprecedented in terms of getting an at-large selection being 5 games under .500 in the first 2 quads. Plus they've looked like shit down the stretch. Having watched them a shit ton this year, they're just so meh. Their whole predictive resume is basically beating Baylor by 20.

They don't have 20 wins even after the conference tournament and went .500 in an average Big Ten. What are we even doing here? Especially in a year where the bubble shrunk significantly.

 

[ericd7633]

They don't have 20 wins even after the conference tournament and went .500 in an average Big Ten. What are we even doing here? Especially in a year where the bubble shrunk significantly.

Yeah, I hope the committee takes a long look at them. I am afraid however, that based on what Dan Gavitt said yesterday, that they were pretty clear of the cutline, so only with all the carnage, will that almost drop them out. That's what worries me about Colorado. They were on the bubble going into the P12 Tournament, and got 2 nice wins(Q1), but will that even matter?

 

[duckboy33]

Yeah, I hope the committee takes a long look at them. I am afraid however, that based on what Dan Gavitt said yesterday, that they were pretty clear of the cutline, so only with all the carnage, will that almost drop them out. That's what worries me about Colorado. They were on the bubble going into the P12 Tournament, and got 2 nice wins(Q1), but will that even matter?

I know most people don't agree in the age of metrics but you should need to win games to get into the NCAAT. I know that's become a radical thought but I think 20 regular season wins and a .500 conference record should be a minimum. Use that to remove the mediocrity and make the tough choices among what is left.

Colorado now has 24 wins in a major conference. There's no reason to be debating Michigan State or Oklahoma over Colorado IMO.

 

[ericd7633]

I know most people don't agree in the age of metrics but you should need to win games to get into the NCAAT. I know that's become a radical thought but I think 20 regular season wins and a .500 conference record should be a minimum. Use that to remove the mediocrity and make the tough choices among what is left.

Colorado now has 24 wins in a major conference. There's no reason to be debating Michigan State or Oklahoma over Colorado IMO.

Yeah, OU and MSU have very similar resumes, I think OU's is slightly better. I don't agree about needing those qualifications, because I do think you can have 19 win teams that are definitely deserving. Even this year a team like Wisconsin, had they lost their First Round B1GT game, they would have had 19 wins and would have been in by a wide margin(7/8 seed range). Especially when there is so much parity. We have 2's and 3's seed with 9 losses and double digit losses this year.

 

[duckboy33]

Yeah, OU and MSU have very similar resumes, I think OU's is slightly better. I don't agree about needing those qualifications, because I do think you can have 19 win teams that are definitely deserving. Even this year a team like Wisconsin, had they lost their First Round B1GT game, they would have had 19 wins and would have been in by a wide margin(7/8 seed range). Especially when there is so much parity. We have 2's and 3's seed with 9 losses and double digit losses this year.

To be fair, I did state that it was a radical thought. I put a lot of value on winning games. There are plenty of teams that meet those minimum requirements. Those are the teams that have earned their way into the conversation.

If a team wants an exception, they have to have something really impressive on their resume. Sparty and Oklahoma don't. Most teams in that situation won't, that's why they lost so many games.

 

[Hitman Hart]

The whole Q1/Q2 thing is still dumb. Any system that used the RPI was flawed as shit, but the way the committee used to use records against top 50, top 75 and top 100 opponents was pretty good.

You should not receive credit for beating the 75th best team in the country. The main resume booster should be about wins versus the field aka top 50 wins. They have outsmarted themselves with this quadrant shit.

 

[duckboy33]

The whole Q1/Q2 thing is still dumb. Any system that used the RPI was flawed as shit, but the way the committee used to use records against top 50, top 75 and top 100 opponents was pretty good.

You should not receive credit for beating the 75th best team in the country. The main resume booster should be about wins versus the field aka top 50 wins. They have outsmarted themselves with this quadrant shit.

I tune people out when they start talking about quads. Shit is beyond dumb

 

[Deep Creek]

I know most people don't agree in the age of metrics but you should need to win games to get into the NCAAT. I know that's become a radical thought but I think 20 regular season wins and a .500 conference record should be a minimum. Use that to remove the mediocrity and make the tough choices among what is left.

Colorado now has 24 wins in a major conference. There's no reason to be debating Michigan State or Oklahoma over Colorado IMO.

I would agree with this if several of those 20 are against some good OOC opponents. If it is full of OOC wins against crap then I don't buy it. I'm for anything that encourages good OOC scheduling. Even more so if they aren't on a neutral court. JMO

 

[duckboy33]

I would agree with this if several of those 20 are against some good OOC opponents. If it is full of OOC wins against crap then I don't buy it. I'm for anything that encourages good OOC scheduling. Even more so if they aren't on a neutral court. JMO

I agree with that. We have a human element to make sure teams aren't trying to game the system.

 

[duckboy33]

PAC 12 is 5-0 and all the teams are headed to the 2nd round