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I actually think the B12 will fit nicely in the lower 3 P5. With OU and TX to the SEC, they clearly won't be at the top level of SEC and B1G, but they won't be G5. They have too much going for them, especially in non-football sports, for them to be at G5 level.I think you are correct. It will be very hard for Big12 to stay relevant.
Cincinnati made the playoffs this year which is a BIG WIN for the future Big12 but I don't see that happening very often. Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, and UCF have had great teams recently but it seems like it is not consistent.
I think both Kansas State and Oklahoma State have the potential for continued success. UCF isn't as strong as the past but with the Florida programs struggling, there is potential for UCF as well.
However, all of these teams will have the Boise State/West Virginia syndrome in that they will get attention as that "fly on the ointment" spoiler team similar to Basketball Cinderella teams. This will only occur if they are good.
The new Big12 will definitely be better than any of the current mid-major teams but there is a HUGE gap between the new Big12 and the B1G/SEC on value.
With that said, they will be as relevant in football as the ACC and PAC are.