Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC

[Codaxx]

Agree with most, but Kansas is all but a lock for BIG 10 being AAU, Regional, and a monster Basketball program. Take them out of the equation. WVU can't get BIG 10 as they're not AAU and are just too far away from the PAC. They're ACC bound and need to relax.

ISU is possibly a Big 10 pick for #2 based on being AAU and region. Their only concern is the Big 10 going after Colorado over the Cyclones.

Tech, Okie Jr, KSU, TCU, and Baylor have no choice but to hold for a PAC offer to remain P5. Big 10 is an absolute NO and ACC is highly unlikely.
There's no panic when you only have ONE place to go to maintain a P5 status. Best they can do is wait for an offer from their only chance.

Again.... SEC/TX/OU want these leftovers to panic. The leftovers, Big 10, ACC. and PAC need to realize there's no reason to.

I think that is the type of thinking that has gotten the Big 12 is trouble. I will agree that I believe the BIg 10 doesn’t need to rush out and make a move. I think they are strong enough. The PAC needs to be proactive. They have to fortify the conference. They can’t afford to sit back and have schools talking to the Big 10, we have seen those rumors already surface. ACC is a bit tougher, but I think they could use a FOOTBALL move to appease Clemson and the Florida schools

 

[BadMotoWeazal]

They don't. Both schools have boosters and donors that will chip in. Not to mention their $11 million pay increase ($34 million > $45 million by going to the SEC for the 2022 season.

2022 + 2023+ 2024 +2025 = $44 million

That leaves just $32 million for boosters and donors to pick up.

In 2025 SEC teams will be making at least what the Big 10 teams make ($54 million) if not more. Whatever boosters and donors don't pick up will be made up within a couple years at most.

Without boosters and donors assistance TX/OU are still sure to break even on the $76 million within 6 years and on their way to massive profits going forward after that.

That's basically what Nebraska did getting partial share with the Big 10 for 6 years. That partial share was compatible with what they'd had earned in the Big 12 and once full share hit in year 7 they've been rolling in cash since.

At this point it appears TX/OU will get full share from the SEC. So immediate $11 million/year pay raise for 4 years then BAM, a minimum $20 million pay raise going forward.

OU makes out far better in this deal because TX is already making $54 million/yr (Big 10 money) in the Big 12 with the $34 million per Big 12 team plus the $15 million/year from the LHN.
The LHN will be dissolved and be an overall $9 million loss/yr for 4 years to the donghorns.

My maffs is good!!

I saw the letter posted on here somewhere with 2025 as the joining date. So, maybe they are not ready to skip out on their contracts.

 

[Red_Alert]

Texas and Oklahoma have had 6 months to set up those donations, to make up the difference.
JMO though.

Yup.

$32 million is a drop in the bucket. When boosters and donors want a head coach out, they dummy up $millions for their buyouts.

How much did TX spend on Charlie and Herman's buyouts combined?
How much did Nebraska spend on Callahan, Pelini and Riley buyouts combined?

Not much because it's boosters that fork out the dough.

 

[Red_Alert]

Not sure Iowa State can get into B1G easy. They don't add a lot and Iowa is a big hurdle for them. Iowa brings more of the Iowa market than Iowa State.

West Virginia might get academic snubbery from ACC. Either way, West Virginia is probably gone from Big12. Doesn't make sense to travel to play the current Big12. There is a 70% chance they go to American, 24% chance to ACC, and 1% chance to B1G.

Kansas could get into B1G, I agree. Another option is to keep Big12 together and turn it into a Basketball league. Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State are good basketball names. Perhaps recruit Witchita State, Memphis, and Oral Roberts for Basketball. The Big12 could survive as a Basketball First league and de-emphasize football.

Pac12 could just through a lifeline and grab 4 former Big 12 teams. Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor make the most sense for Pac12 expansion.

Agree. If anyone panics it'll be Iowa St.
However, they're not head and shoulders above any of those other teams in value so I don't see the PAC or ACC panicking to grab them either.

 

[Red_Alert]

I think that is the type of thinking that has gotten the Big 12 is trouble. I will agree that I believe the BIg 10 doesn’t need to rush out and make a move. I think they are strong enough. The PAC needs to be proactive. They have to fortify the conference. They can’t afford to sit back and have schools talking to the Big 10, we have seen those rumors already surface. ACC is a bit tougher, but I think they could use a FOOTBALL move to appease Clemson and the Florida schools

Who's gonna talk to the Big 10?

Not Texas Tech, Baylor, Okie Jr, KSU, or WVU.
Big 10: "You're not AAU, click"

Iowa St or KU are not head and shoulders enough in value above those other 5 to cause PAC or ACC panic on them.

KU is Big 10 bound. That's not even a doubt. They know that and won't panic for a PAC offer that's unlikely to even come anyway in the near term.

 

[Volbound1700]

Not sure Kansas to B1G is a done deal. B1G could have gotten Kansas in 2010/2011 time frame and passed on it.

Kansas might be the one rock the Big12 can rally around to stay together. Big12 would have to change its image to become a Basketball league similar to the current Big East. From a Basketball perspective, it would still be a very competitive league. Perhaps it grabs Memphis, Wichita State, and Creighton.

West Virginia is gone though. Doesn't make sense for them to stay around even if ACC won't take them. They are either going to AAC or ACC.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Your schedule just got harder with Alabama in the reg season & the Gentleman's agreement that has been insurance in keeping Gtech & Clemson out of the SEC got scrubbed. But I dig the positivity.

And it isn't particular to just UGA, the same can be said for teams like USCe, Texas A&M and Florida.

I disagree:

- At the end of the day, we have to go through Bama. Whether that is during the year, or the SECCCG, we have to beat Bama. It's just when we play them ... regular season or CG.

- There is a post somewhere here where the "Gentlemen's agreement" was laid out as not being as solid as some may have thought. If, at the end of the day the SEC feels we can make an extra 15 million per year brining in GaTech, FSU, Clemson, or Louisville, so be it. I hope that doesn't happen but only because I don't understand the advantage of a 24 team super conference.

As to the first point, it is way less important due to the 12 team CFP. We can lose to Bama every year and win all our other game and we will get a second shot.

FYI, there are a lot of Dawg fans that are looking forward to Bama every year. We already want it in Atlanta ... glad to have home and away.

BTW, your schedule just got harder, too. You lose LSU and pick up UF and UGA, and still have little brother you have to play every year.

 

[Red_Alert]

I saw the letter posted on here somewhere with 2025 as the joining date. So, maybe they are not ready to skip out on their contracts.

I've seen it too.

I think it's just legalese and they bolt for the 2022 season.
If they say "We're gone" in that letter then they're guaranteed to have to pay the $76 million penalty. A Delaware judge drops the gavel on that document right fucking now.
TX/OU can sit back and hope the Big 12 dissolves before 2022 and the GOR gets voided.

 

[Goldbug]

At $54 million/year + AAU monies, Nebraska is not a "low tier team" in the Big 10. They get equal share across the board.

Nebraska is still a blueblood and Top 10 winningest school in college football on paper. More than Oregon will be able to say for decades to come.
Nebraska is one Dabo hire away from returning to relevance. As is everybody else not named Clemson or Alabama.

Do you truly believe if a 40 year old Tom Osborne clone walked though the door and said "I want to be the head coach at Nebraska" it would solve your problems? I think a better coach would definitely help but I'm leery if it would completely fix what's ailing the Huskers. I wish I was more optimistic that Nebraska can ever get back to the elite level they used to enjoy. Recruiting has changed and academic qualifications have changed. And, unfortunately, the Old School way of doing things at Nebraska (spend two years in the weight room getting stronger than a mofo before you go earn All-American status, for example) has given away to instant gratification and player expectations that are waaaay different than what Devaney and Osborne had to work with.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

lol why are you the way you are?
View attachment 36853

Why are you so stupid that you can't read?

By the way, your gif doesn't get the reaction you think it does. I think it's funny as hell. The way that whole thing went down was hilarious. No Dawg fan is mad, or embarrassed by it. It's like me posting the Auburn player getting attacked by UGA ... it's funny to us all. I don't imagine when I post it that some Auburn fans get bent out of shape like a Texas fan seeing the horns down sign. You guys in the Big 12 get your panties in a wad when someone does a horns down sign ... those of us in the SEC are made tougher. Toughen up, and welcome to the big leagues.

 

[Volbound1700]

I disagree:

- At the end of the day, we have to go through Bama. Whether that is during the year, or the SECCCG, we have to beat Bama. It's just when we play them ... regular season or CG.

- There is a post somewhere here where the "Gentlemen's agreement" was laid out as not being as solid as some may have thought. If, at the end of the day the SEC feels we can make an extra 15 million per year brining in GaTech, FSU, Clemson, or Louisville, so be it. I hope that doesn't happen but only because I don't understand the advantage of a 24 team super conference.

As to the first point, it is way less important due to the 12 team CFP. We can lose to Bama every year and win all our other game and we will get a second shot.

FYI, there are a lot of Dawg fans that are looking forward to Bama every year. We already want it in Atlanta ... glad to have home and away.

BTW, your schedule just got harder, too. You lose LSU and pick up UF and UGA, and still have little brother you have to play every year.

I won't lie, Tennessee fans are ecstatic about Auburn and Alabama coming to the East because most feel like Tennessee having Alabama on its calendar every year was a disadvantage vs. Florida and Georgia (granted, I doubt it much as our program has just been in the toilet). I chat on VolNation as well which is a major UT forum (in fact it has more activity than this board).

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Yep. Big 10 was a 6 year deal thru 2024.

I think it'll be a benefit negotiating after the SEC does.
However, I don't think it will be a benefit having Kevin Warren negotiating as opposed to Jim Delany.
Delany played hardball.
I have little faith in Warren's skills. When he speaks publicly he asks more questions than gives answers.

Yeah, not impressed with him thus far.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

lol why are you the way you are?
View attachment 36853

Just wait until Uga gets replaced by an Olde English Bulldoggee. It’ll rip Bevo’s throat out

 

[Volbound1700]

Do you truly believe if a 40 year old Tom Osborne clone walked though the door and said "I want to be the head coach at Nebraska" it would solve your problems? I think a better coach would definitely help but I'm leery if it would completely fix what's ailing the Huskers. I wish I was more optimistic that Nebraska can ever get back to the elite level they used to enjoy. Recruiting has changed and academic qualifications have changed. And, unfortunately, the Old School way of doing things at Nebraska (spend two years in the weight room getting stronger than a mofo before you go earn All-American status, for example) has given away to instant gratification and player expectations that are waaaay different than what Devaney and Osborne had to work with.

To be fair, Wisconsin follows the old way of Nebraska and does well with it... well at least until they run into Ohio State. I think Nebraska will never get back to 1995/1997 levels but they can be a 10-11 win team in B1G. Wisconsin is who they should mimic for success.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I won't lie, Tennessee fans are ecstatic about Auburn and Alabama coming to the East because most feel like Tennessee having Alabama on its calendar every year was a disadvantage vs. Florida and Georgia (granted, I doubt it much as our program has just been in the toilet). I chat on VolNation as well which is a major UT forum (in fact it has more activity than this board).

I can see your logic there. Then again, you owned Bama from 95 - 06.

 

[Volbound1700]

I can see your logic there. Then again, you owned Bama from 95 - 06.

I have told many people that I don't think Tennessee will get back to prominence of the 1990s levels until Nick Saban has retired.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

What does AAU even mean? UGA ranks ahead of a lot of AAU member schools academically, but they’re not AAU.

But if say Bama and UGA wanted to join the B1G, they’d waive that AAU requirement in a heartbeat

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I have told many people that I don't think Tennessee will get back to prominence of the 1990s levels until Nick Saban has retired.

Not to be a Debbie downer, but your problems are more fundamental than Bama being good. You have had shit administrators for more than a decade who have killed you. I mean historically horrible. You have made horrendous coaching decisions. Most importantly, your state is not very strong with in-state prospects, and you have UNC, UGA, and everyone else picking you apart in TN. When you were at the top, you recruited well in Ga. You don't any more and won't as long as CKS is around. And, you've been down too long ... there isn't a prospect alive who remembers how good UT was in the 90s. That's a big problem to overcome - just ask Nebraska, Michigan, Miami and the like. FSU better get it turned around before that applies to them. You are in the SEC, in the south, and you have rich alumni. But, playing UA, AU, UF and Bama every year, with TAMU, OU, LSU and Tx thrown in each year is going to make it tough to come back.

 

[Volbound1700]

What does AAU even mean? UGA ranks ahead of a lot of AAU member schools academically, but they’re not AAU.

But if say Bama and UGA wanted to join the B1G, they’d waive that AAU requirement in a heartbeat

Agreed. People were talking about Texas' academic prestige and yes they are top 3-4 in SEC but Vandy and Florida are both way ahead of Texas in most rankings. Texas A&M is considered one of the best bang-for-buck schools to go to. Even UTK is not easy to get into.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Agree with most, but Kansas is all but a lock for BIG 10 being AAU, Regional, and a monster Basketball program. Take them out of the equation. WVU can't get BIG 10 as they're not AAU and are just too far away from the PAC. They're ACC bound and need to relax.

ISU is possibly a Big 10 pick for #2 based on being AAU and region. Their only concern is the Big 10 going after Colorado over the Cyclones.

Tech, Okie Jr, KSU, TCU, and Baylor have no choice but to hold for a PAC offer to remain P5. Big 10 is an absolute NO and ACC is highly unlikely.
There's no panic when you only have ONE place to go to maintain a P5 status. Best they can do is wait for an offer from their only chance.

Again.... SEC/TX/OU want these leftovers to panic. The leftovers, Big 10, ACC. and PAC need to realize there's no reason to.

WV isn't going to get an invite to the ACC unless ND comes in as a full member. Scheduling would be way too difficult with one extra divisional opponent. ND doesn't balance because they rotate playing the whole conference and not just in a division. I'm not saying it couldn't be done but I'm definitely saying that the headache isn't worth it and the money wouldn't be there either.

If I had to bet it would be that WV stays put until the cash runs out due to the conference folding and then jumps to the AAC without any other recourse. I would be shocked if they end up in the ACC without ND becoming a full memeber.