USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!

[Hu War Yu]

Would come down to these schools for the remaining spots I am guessing in no real order:

Cal
Virginia (Do they opt for the SEC?)
NC State
Duke (Yes, Duke)
Kansas
Colorado
Arizona
Iowa State

I think the Jayhawks are a lock for the BiG. Can't pass up that B-ball cred

 

[Volbound1700]

Here is the thing with ND:

1. They aren't actually going to join the ACC unless they have to because they are eating their cake and keeping it too.
2. They don't have to do anything because anyone will take them at any point so from their perspective the move would be 100% financial. The only thing that would change that is if they are left out of a playoff system which isn't likely anytime soon.
3. The odds of the SEC being in contention for ND is extremely low as they aren't going to give up the USC, Navy and Stanford games if they don't have to and the B1G gives them access to Michigan and Michigan State which have been rivals in the past.

The only interesting thing I've seen lately that has changed my thinking is that UNC might prefer the B1G over the SEC if the ACC folds. I think the fanbase would overwhelmingly want the SEC but the administration seems to lean heavily to the B1G for academic reasons. One thing is for sure the ACC is UNC's league so they aren't going to do anything unless there is no other choice.

When this thing is over (which could be in 2036) I think we see the SEC pick up:

FSU
Miami
VT
Clemson

I had it at UNC, Duke, VT and either Clemson/FSU/Miami but if the SEC can't get UNC they won't take Duke but we might see NC State as the 4th choice to get in the state of NC but the truth is the SEC will have to go with bigger names to counterr the B1G move.

- ND is the biggest get on the board
- UNC is the second but the margin is between them and ND is wide

I still think the B1G would rather go after the ACC schools but you could see a situation where they go after some more of the PAC but I'm not convinced that makes a lot of sense for them. What does make sense is ND, UNC, Duke, GT and Virginia but someone on that list will get left out. ND might also push to get Stanford (the SEC is not going to add a PAC team) so that would leave one or two of the ACC schools out.

I would be shocked beyond belief if ND joined the SEC as I don't think that is even a remote possibility because they will have more attractive options open to them.

As it stands right now to kill the ACC GOR it will take 8 votes and ND doesn't count so that is 9 schools moving and the numbers at that point get complex. Add in that UNC is going to fight it to the bitter end and odds point to the ACC surviving for now.

Agree for most part above but if SEC strikes out on UNC (which is possible), than I can see the SEC grabbing NC State to get into North Carolina. NC State is attractive enough to be an option for the SEC.

In a way, NC State and Virginia Tech might be better cultural fits for SEC although I agree that I think most of UNC's fanbase would want in. UNC wants UVA to come along with them and I think UVA fits better with B1G than SEC.

 

[Thiefery]

Here is the thing with ND:

1. They aren't actually going to join the ACC unless they have to because they are eating their cake and keeping it too.
2. They don't have to do anything because anyone will take them at any point so from their perspective the move would be 100% financial. The only thing that would change that is if they are left out of a playoff system which isn't likely anytime soon.
3. The odds of the SEC being in contention for ND is extremely low as they aren't going to give up the USC, Navy and Stanford games if they don't have to and the B1G gives them access to Michigan and Michigan State which have been rivals in the past.

The only interesting thing I've seen lately that has changed my thinking is that UNC might prefer the B1G over the SEC if the ACC folds. I think the fanbase would overwhelmingly want the SEC but the administration seems to lean heavily to the B1G for academic reasons. One thing is for sure the ACC is UNC's league so they aren't going to do anything unless there is no other choice.

When this thing is over (which could be in 2036) I think we see the SEC pick up:

FSU
Miami
VT
Clemson

I had it at UNC, Duke, VT and either Clemson/FSU/Miami but if the SEC can't get UNC they won't take Duke but we might see NC State as the 4th choice to get in the state of NC but the truth is the SEC will have to go with bigger names to counterr the B1G move.

- ND is the biggest get on the board
- UNC is the second but the margin is between them and ND is wide

I still think the B1G would rather go after the ACC schools but you could see a situation where they go after some more of the PAC but I'm not convinced that makes a lot of sense for them. What does make sense is ND, UNC, Duke, GT and Virginia but someone on that list will get left out. ND might also push to get Stanford (the SEC is not going to add a PAC team) so that would leave one or two of the ACC schools out.

I would be shocked beyond belief if ND joined the SEC as I don't think that is even a remote possibility because they will have more attractive options open to them.

As it stands right now to kill the ACC GOR it will take 8 votes and ND doesn't count so that is 9 schools moving and the numbers at that point get complex. Add in that UNC is going to fight it to the bitter end and odds point to the ACC surviving for now.

Josh Pate RT some tweet that said an anonymous AD in the ACC said, they'd figure out the GOR in court.. but they would actually lose more money staying in the ACC with the current deal than to just bolt to either the BiG or SEC

 

[ralphiewvu]

I am more inclined to believe most of them want a better deal than only getting half the money that the two bigs teams do for 12 more years. That alone makes me think any team that believes they have a chance and a place to land would go, even to the big12 if the money is significantly better, and we don't know what it will wind up being there.

The comments on this thread alone account for 7-8 teams getting poached and that isn't even counting the big12 getting any. Not that anyone on here knows WTF they're talking about, but that's not the point.

ACC isn't happy with their shit deal when other conferences are raking in twice the money per team annually. I don't think the GOR will last to 2035, it can be voted down if enough schools want out. They can read the writing on the wall as well as us, so what's the incentive to make less than half of what Rutgers makes for 12 more years?

Either that or add another team and renegotiate the contract?

BTW, the fans of GT want out. The powers at the school don't, and would prefer us to not have athletics at all.

Exactly what I was thinking too. If the end game is over 20 teams that the B1G and SEC want, it stands to reason at least 8 could would be poached by those two. (Not counting ND) who the hell is the SEC really going to add but ACC teams? That leaves at maximum 6 ACC schools. While that’s probably enough to hold the GOR, if the writing is on the wall and they can get in the B12 could teh SEC and B1G make some sort of garuntees like still being able to play for a natty in the B12 and some cash to help speed up the process?

The B12 needs to pounce (as much as you want to call it pounce) to ensure they are the #3 conference.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Sounds legit to me. If I'm the Big 12 I don't really want to add schools that MIGHT leave for the B1G the next time the tree is shaken. So I'd stick with just the four you mentioned.

We are going to know in the next couple of weeks if not this week. You are 100% correct in that there are zero reasons for Utah, Arizona State and Arizona to wait.

Utah has a natural rival in BYU so it makes a ton of sense for them.
Arizona and Arizona State both want access to Texas recruiting.
Colorado is just being smart and not wanting to get left holding the bag.

I would bet all 4 announce a move in the next two weeks and then things will get interesting but slow way down. The PAC is toast at that point and Oregon, Washington and Stanford will wait to see if the B1G is a possibility and not really be in a hurry to announce anything until they are sure.

At that point, Washington State and Oregon State are completely screwed and Cal probably is also. In the next two weeks, the PAC will more than likely cease to exist after 2025.

 

[CoalTrain]

Those tweets? Yeah idk if they hold any water, but it made me feel better.

Oh like I said being a former WVU trust me no fan base knows realignment/expansion ect. Like that base I will guarantee you that and that was the ongoing thing for awhile, anything and everything that came across the internet was a “done deal” by whatever “source” was being quoted. It’s interesting but what we’ve (all of us CFB fans) all learned is ya never ever ever believe any of it until the decision makers are reading their prepared statements once the deals are done.

 

[Volbound1700]

I think both B1G and SEC are approaching it based on value of programs. Sure there might be some teams like Kansas that are attractive down the line but have no value right now.

Notre Dame has the spot light as they are the biggest player still on the board.

After that, I am thinking UNC is the next most valuable brand and I think it is probably one of the only brands that both the B1G and SEC are fighting over. I think most of the rest of the programs already got a preferred landing spot. I think you have a similar situation as Notre Dame in that whoever takes UNC will have to take either Duke or Virginia (or maybe even both) to get UNC.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Josh Pate RT some tweet that said an anonymous AD in the ACC said, they'd figure out the GOR in court.. but they would actually lose more money staying in the ACC with the current deal than to just bolt to either the BiG or SEC

I won't disagree with that except that it isn't a given they would win in court. To my knowledge, no one has the latest copy of the ND/ACC agreement so anything written on that is speculation.

In fact, the only GOR for the ACC that can be found (to my knowledge) is the original which might have amendments by now.

If ND were to lose in court it would be a financial disaster and the ACC would own a chunk of what the B1G would pay them. They aren't going to make a move lightly and if they decide to do it more than likely they would settle with the ACC for some amount and buy themselves out. I just don't see them saying screw it and rolling the dice.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Agree for most part above but if SEC strikes out on UNC (which is possible), than I can see the SEC grabbing NC State to get into North Carolina. NC State is attractive enough to be an option for the SEC.

In a way, NC State and Virginia Tech might be better cultural fits for SEC although I agree that I think most of UNC's fanbase would want in. UNC wants UVA to come along with them and I think UVA fits better with B1G than SEC.

Where are you hearing the UNC & UVA connection?

You could swap UVA and VT coming in to the SEC as I don't think it would matter as long as it got UNC. I honestly think UNC going to the B1G would be a huge mistake for the fanbase as they are going to hate games with Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers compared to playing SC, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, UT, KY and such. It would be a shame.

I honestly think Texas' admins would have preferred the B1G as well but they were smart enough to know the fanbase would much rather be in the SEC.

 

[Volbound1700]

I won't disagree with that except that it isn't a given they would win in court. To my knowledge, no one has the latest copy of the ND/ACC agreement so anything written on that is speculation.

In fact, the only GOR for the ACC that can be found (to my knowledge) is the original which might have amendments by now.

If ND were to lose in court it would be a financial disaster and the ACC would own a chunk of what the B1G would pay them. They aren't going to make a move lightly and if they decide to do it more than likely they would settle with the ACC for some amount and buy themselves out. I just don't see them saying screw it and rolling the dice.

I don't have all of the facts but my legal instincts say that winning in court will be a challenge. It was a contract that all parties signed onto.

The key argument against the GOR would be that the recent market changes as well as changes in the sports overall have created a hardship that makes the Contract unjustifiable to keep in place (also sometimes contracts do have language that allows them to be re-evaluated for drastic changes in the market).

So the ACC teams that would want to leave would have to argue that the Contract has now been made Unconscionable or Unjust based on the changes in the overall market.

Unfortunately, the contract is still profitable so I don't see that happening. You really have to show that you are losing money to make that work.

Now the one item that might open the door or at least be an argument a judge might entertain would be the fact that the current ACC contract has the potential to make the schools uncompetitive against the B1G and SEC. Even with this, it is a major uphill battle.

However, judges sometimes go with politics. Put the court in Tallahassee Florida and maybe an FSU alumni judge may rule with FSU. That might be their only shot is just win a political fight with the court.

In summary, it just doesn't look good to get out of the GOR.

 

[Volbound1700]

Where are you hearing the UNC & UVA connection?

You could swap UVA and VT coming in to the SEC as I don't think it would matter as long as it got UNC. I honestly think UNC going to the B1G would be a huge mistake for the fanbase as they are going to hate games with Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers compared to playing SC, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, UT, KY and such. It would be a shame.

I honestly think Texas' admins would have preferred the B1G as well but they were smart enough to know the fanbase would much rather be in the SEC.

UNC-UVA is one of the longest standing rivalries in college sports: South's Oldest Rivalry - Wikipedia

All the rumors point to UNC wanting to keep that rivalry. Also UVA checks a lot of boxes itself. It is a decent brand, AAU, and one of the top public academic institutes in the nation.

Edit: I stated earlier that I got a hunch that UNC will go to SEC. It just fits better for them.

 

[Thiefery]

I won't disagree with that except that it isn't a given they would win in court. To my knowledge, no one has the latest copy of the ND/ACC agreement so anything written on that is speculation.

In fact, the only GOR for the ACC that can be found (to my knowledge) is the original which might have amendments by now.

If ND were to lose in court it would be a financial disaster and the ACC would own a chunk of what the B1G would pay them. They aren't going to make a move lightly and if they decide to do it more than likely they would settle with the ACC for some amount and buy themselves out. I just don't see them saying screw it and rolling the dice.

i'm pretty sure that it wasn't a ND source he was talking about.

As far as the GOR.. I don't know how a court could vote in favor of a deal that was horrendous and keeps getting worse every year. Like there isn't any option BUT to leave if the ACC cannot get ESPN to renegotiate it's current agreement

 

[Volbound1700]

i'm pretty sure that it wasn't a ND source he was talking about.

As far as the GOR.. I don't know how a court could vote in favor of a deal that was horrendous and keeps getting worse every year. Like there isn't any option BUT to leave if the ACC cannot get ESPN to renegotiate it's current agreement

The key to this statement is compared to what?

A judge can easily say the contract puts them ahead of every league not named B1G and SEC so they are competitive. You hit on the crux of where to challenge the contract but I am not sure it is a winning argument.

 

[Thiefery]

The key to this statement is compared to what?

A judge can easily say the contract puts them ahead of every league not named B1G and SEC so they are competitive. You hit on the crux of where to challenge the contract but I am not sure it is a winning argument.

is there any other league outside the BiG and SEC?

 

[Top Cat]

Clemson, VT, and Miami aren't AAU so they won't be getting in. B1G is serious about that and always has been. For ND they may make an exception but not these other 3. They'll want Virginia, maybe Duke if it will get them UNC. Iowa State can forget it. Kansas or Colorado are possible.

When the gloves come off I don't think AAU is what they say it is as far as getting into the BIG. Certainly a nice perk, but they aren't turning down Clemson or Miami if this is going 28 teams.

 

[Volbound1700]

is there any other league outside the BiG and SEC?

MAC, Sunbelt, American, etc.

You laugh but a non-CFB focused court will pay attention to this argument.

You don't believe me, imagine all of these leagues as Entertainment Television companies. Would we let Television Station C out of an unfair contract with Direct TV because they are making less per year than Television Station A or B?

 

[Volbound1700]

When the gloves come off I don't think AAU is what they say it is as far as getting into the BIG. Certainly a nice perk, but they aren't turning down Clemson or Miami if this is going 28 teams.

If they wanted them, sure. I think both B1G and SEC have marked off territory and these programs are in SEC territory and frankly would rather be in the SEC.

 

[Top Cat]

MAC, Sunbelt, American, etc.

You laugh but a non-CFB focused court will pay attention to this argument.

You don't believe me, imagine all of these leagues as Entertainment Television companies. Would we let Television Station C out of an unfair contract with Direct TV because they are making less per year than Television Station A or B?

There's been a lot worse than the BIG and SEC in terms of skirting anti-trust litigation if that's what you're referring to. I really doubt it. There's a reason the phrase "too big to fail" was a thing in the first place.

 

[Top Cat]

If they wanted them, sure. I think both B1G and SEC have marked off territory and these programs are in SEC territory and frankly would rather be in the SEC.

Maybe so. Won't be for a lack of trying from the BIG however, imo.

 

[Volbound1700]

Maybe so. Won't be for a lack of trying from the BIG however, imo.

Although it is getting more expansive, I think the SEC will generally stay in the Southeastern region and this is why they are not pursuing teams like Oregon or Notre Dame too heavily.

SEC can get away with the Texas-to-Florida span of states and be fine. Every team they have added has some connection to the Southeast even if it is a stretch.

The big fight will likely be over UNC-UVA.