What Is The PAC’s or Big 12’s Move?

[Tharvot]

Who other than ND makes the B1G's very big pie bigger, per team? ND for sure. After that there is no one left. You guys might do some West coast stuff for logistics and a long term investment, but I don't see the value beyond ND.

Market-wise, there aren't any schools outside ND that increase the pie now. Having NYC, Chicago, and LA within your umbrella kinda limits future growth options.

Logistically, the layout doesn't make sense as is though. Colorado and Washington make sense because the Seattle and Denver markets are still quite large. Big schools, quality academics, etc. Everything fits there.

That leaves a 3rd and 4th school. Utah is sort of similar to Colorado and Washington, but worse in basically every aspect in terms of appeal. Stanford is a possibility. San Francisco is a massive market, and their academics is top notch. Fits well with the B1G agenda. Oregon doesn't bring much in terms of market, but their brand is at least sizeable...plus the Nike connection doesn't hurt their cause. Cal kinda doesn't bring much of anything aside from academic prestige, though an argument can be made that they are also San Fran market.

I don't know what schools will be on the target list or when the B1G will act, but I am pretty certain they won't stop where they currently are for very long.

Because I don't think the ACC or ND get out of the GOR right now. So I think the B1G is done until they can raid ND and ACC schools.

ACC may be the next to break. Floodgates may open if Clemson and FSU make a dash to the SEC or even if there are leaks that they are interested. It would start the wheels turning for all the other schools.

Frankly, I always thought that conference would be the next one to fracture after the B12. I always sort of considered the PAC untouchable and on their own little island. The ACC's GOR is pretty air tight, but if enough members exit, it could be amended.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

again man, if the PAC presidents and ADs just agreed to begin negotiations, they want to know how much they can fetch.. You know WHO STILL hasn't began discussions? The BiG12..

Last shot here ... how much they can fetch with what? There is a good chance the PAC won't even exist in a few days. Do they have Stanford and Cal, or are they on the way to the B1G? Are the 4 or 6 teams rumored to be approached by the B12 going to be in the PAC? Will the PAC try to go after some of the teams in the B12. The point I am making ... the only point ... is that until that uncertainty is decided there won't be any negotiations on a new PAC TV contract.

 

[ralphiewvu]

What ... you can't negotiate with a conference when no one knows who is in the conference. Just within the last 5 minutes news has broken that the B12 is going after 4-6 PAC teams. Why the fuck would any network seriously talk to a conference about a TV contract when it lost its two best teams and best market a week ago, and now have at least 4-8 of the remaining teams in talks with other conferences? I don't get why you think my position is so crazy ... the PAC's announcement today was about as stupid a PR stunt as we've seen.

He’s holding out hope that the B12 ceases to exist at all.

 

[Thiefery]

Last shot here ... how much they can fetch with what? There is a good chance the PAC won't even exist in a few days. Do they have Stanford and Cal, or are they on the way to the B1G? Are the 4 or 6 teams rumored to be approached by the B12 going to be in the PAC? Will the PAC try to go after some of the teams in the B12. The point I am making ... the only point ... is that until that uncertainty is decided there won't be any negotiations on a new PAC TV contract.

who fucking knows man, but they are about to find out..

"Put into plain English: Pac-12 schools want to understand how much money is on the table for them if the current conference continues to exist post-USC/UCLA. If the numbers are bad, they'll quickly try to find new landing spots."

 

[OlyDuck]

i mean y'all voted no to expansion.. they haven't been able to keep 2 SEC teams for the most part, out of the CFP.. with expansion coming up.. how are they going to keep the BiG from getting the other 2 spots?

they werent getting 2 now.
USC and UCLA never got there.
what makes you think those things change?

 

[duckboy33]

If this is true, then the B1G has to decide if they want Cal and Stanford. After that, they are done. Then the action will be all in the B12 and PAC. ACC stands pat. After the B12 and PAC are done, the G5 gets active with what is left.

I can't see the Big Ten moving on Cal and Stanford. It gives USC/UCLA some closer games but the Big Ten schools would have to take a pay cut in order to do that. I doubt they care that much about USC and UCLA's travel concerns.

 

[Thiefery]

they werent getting 2 now.
USC and UCLA never got there.
what makes you think those things change?

because it's easier now.. Oregon would have to be undefeated to even have a chance at it.. think they can pull that off?

 

[OlyDuck]

If the playoff expands to 12 then I would expect the PAC, B12 and ACC to be in (assuming they survive). However, if the SEC and B1G form their own playoff system where they determine conference champs and they play them in a championship game then there is no chance.

If the B1G and SEC make more expansion moves that is the most probable outcome and basically a super division in formed in CFB. I don't like it but the money is going to be too great so it will happen.

If I were you I would be more worried about Arizona, ASU, Utah and Colorado as they could bury the PAC this week if they elect to defect to the B12. At that point you are either going to get a B1G invite (that is dependent on ND who is in a 14 year GOR agreement) or become a member of the B12.

if the Big and SEC decided to have their own Championship between themselves involving their current 32 teams and or adding a handful more you dont think the other 100 teams would still stage a championship?

 

[Thiefery]

On twitter they are reporting that the Pac12 is going through an exclusive 30 day negotiating window with FOX and ESPN...

 

[Thiefery]

if the Big and SEC decided to have their own Championship between themselves involving their current 32 teams and or adding a handful more you dont think the other 100 teams would still stage a championship?

yep and enjoy the parade through disneyworld

 

[Red_Alert]

I think USC just wanted a 'travel buddy' and Oregon wasn't it.

UCLA is also their chief PAC rival.

USC/UCLA always made rivalry week national tv (end November) back when there were only 3 channels.
The others were Nebraska/Oklahoma, Michigan/Ohio St, and Alabama/Auburn.

Oregon/Oregon St, Washington/Washington St? WHO?

 

[Kburjr]

Who would we be defending against? The B1G? They don't want FSU, and probably not Miami. Let them take them and watch their culture fall apart. Do they really want their conference to be from Maimi to LA to NY? I can't imagine that.

I would make the same argument about Oregon.

 

[OlyDuck]

yep and enjoy the parade through disneyworld

so you dont think a Clemson vs Oklahoma State and Oregon vs Notre Dame makes any money?
Washington vs Florida State and Baylor vs Miami?
Utah vs BYU and Clemson vs Stanford?

im not saying it will make Alabama vs Ohio State and Michigan vs UGA money but i also think people will get tired of seeing the same teams over and over in a smaller pool. they already are.

 

[outofyourmind]

On twitter they are reporting that the Pac12 is going through an exclusive 30 day negotiating window with FOX and ESPN...

Wonder what that means exactly

 

[Top Cat]

Who other than ND makes the B1G's very big pie bigger, per team? ND for sure. After that there is no one left. You guys might do some West coast stuff for logistics and a long term investment, but I don't see the value beyond ND.

At some point, how the pie is divided is gonna be an issue intra-conference. With not a lot of mega-brands left outside of ND, eventually Ohio State, Alabama, etc are gonna come after how the pie is distributed in the SEC/BIG.

Mississippi State and Purdue are probably not going to be riding the gravy train forever, at least not to the current extent. NIL is gonna be quite expensive if you're dishing out top money for top recruits pretty quick.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Market-wise, there aren't any schools outside ND that increase the pie now. Having NYC, Chicago, and LA within your umbrella kinda limits future growth options.

Logistically, the layout doesn't make sense as is though. Colorado and Washington make sense because the Seattle and Denver markets are still quite large. Big schools, quality academics, etc. Everything fits there.

That leaves a 3rd and 4th school. Utah is sort of similar to Colorado and Washington, but worse in basically every aspect in terms of appeal. Stanford is a possibility. San Francisco is a massive market, and their academics is top notch. Fits well with the B1G agenda. Oregon doesn't bring much in terms of market, but their brand is at least sizeable...plus the Nike connection doesn't hurt their cause. Cal kinda doesn't bring much of anything aside from academic prestige, though an argument can be made that they are also San Fran market.

I don't know what schools will be on the target list or when the B1G will act, but I am pretty certain they won't stop where they currently are for very long.


ACC may be the next to break. Floodgates may open if Clemson and FSU make a dash to the SEC or even if there are leaks that they are interested. It would start the wheels turning for all the other schools.

Frankly, I always thought that conference would be the next one to fracture after the B12. I always sort of considered the PAC untouchable and on their own little island. The ACC's GOR is pretty air tight, but if enough members exit, it could be amended.

I think the whole point of expansion now is to do the following:

- Break the back of the other P5 conferences
- Create a conference big enough you don't need many additional teams
- Own as much of the quality sports programming as you possibly can
- Cut as many out of the national pie picture as you possibly can

This is an orchestrated race to get to two major conferences, strip as much money as you can from everyone else, and control the future of the sport.

I'm not a fan of what's happening but there is no way to stop it. I don't think this happens if the Big 12 would have had a better revenue-sharing system and could have gotten along. If Colorado, aTm, Missouri and Nebraska were still in the Big 12 none of this expansion starts and the Gaps in strength wouldn't have been as great.

Bottom line - We can all blame Texas.

 

[Cowboyinexile]

seeing that makes me believe that unequal revenue is needed.. but the lowly programs are fat pigs now

How many conferences have you killed with that line of thinking?

 

[Wild Turkey]

At some point, how the pie is divided is gonna be an issue intra-conference. With not a lot of mega-brands left outside of ND, eventually Ohio State, Alabama, etc are gonna come after how the pie is distributed in the SEC/BIG.

Mississippi State and Purdue are probably not going to be riding the gravy train forever, at least not to the current extent.

Won't happen because in the SEC each team gets an equal seat and vote at the table. Alabama is free to leave at any point with no penalty but it would be suicide even for them to do it.

I think what is more likely is not an individual team but a select group deciding they can break off and be more profitable. I can totally see in 15 years Texas trying to convince 9 other teams to break off from the SEC and negotiate their own deal. This is the era of expansion and it's entirely possible the next big era will be one of division. The one absolute is that everyone will be really happy for a period and then change will start being appealing.

 

[Thiefery]

Wonder what that means exactly

if they can't make a deal with either then another network can jump in

 

[Thiefery]

How many conferences have you killed with that line of thinking?

you would give up your shares in order to have kept the original 12 .. y'all have gotten fat on the golden tit of UT for the past decade, enjoy getting your 20 mil a year in your awesome new version of a conference