Poll *WOULD*? Bama Oregon TX

Would be left out?

  • Bama left out

  • Oregon left out

  • Texas left out

Results are only viewable after voting.
ELTEXAN

ELTEXAN

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Michigan wins.
FSU wins.

Oregon, Bama, and Texas all win their CCGs by one score.

Which team WOULD be left out of the CFP?
 
Probably Texas. No way they'd leave 1 loss conference champ Alabama out, and the committee seems to really like Oregon. Also the Big 12 seems objectively the weaker conference of the 3 in question.

This is the problem with having a 4 team playoff and 5 qualifying conferences. Would be a fitting end to this era though.
 
ELTEXAN said:
Gime the three sentence explanation for this conclusion
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I'll do it in one: They have a 9-3 team playing in the championship game, one team in the top 10, compared to the other two that have two and are playing them in this week.
 
TheReal_NU said:
If the committee knew the OD meltdown that would happen, they would leave Oregon out.
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This would be the ideal outcome if Oregon wins. But I don't see the committee watching the other two beating two undefeated top 4 teams in their championship games and saying "yeah, but Texas beat Oklahoma State, let's go with them." Especially with the current rankings. I guess we'll see where they are this week.
 
DayButtAssMans’s said:
This would be the ideal outcome if Oregon wins. But I don't see the committee watching the other two beating two undefeated top 4 teams in their championship games and saying "yeah, but Texas beat Oklahoma State, let's go with them." Especially with the current rankings. I guess we'll see where they are this week.
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The committee is EXPLICITLY guided to look at head to head. It’s the second criterion explicitly listed after ‘conf titles.’

This is why I think they would leave out Oregon.

They will want to put in Bama, and they cannot leave Texas out if they do.
 
ELTEXAN said:
Gime the three sentence explanation for this conclusion
Click to expand...

Oklahoma State sucks. They're also playing for the Big 12 Championship.

I only needed 2 sentences
 
duckboy33 said:
Oklahoma State sucks. They're also playing for the Big 12 Championship.

I only needed 2 sentences
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Thanks for bringing up opponents. Whats the comparative SOSs again?
 
ELTEXAN said:
The committee is EXPLICITLY guided to look at head to head. It’s the second criterion explicitly listed after ‘conf titles.’
Click to expand...
Okay, why'd you vote for Oregon then? The only head to head outcome that factors into this scenario has nothing to do with them, and the committee has consistently kept them in front of both teams, and their resume is only getting getting much better after this week and if they win the CCG. Texas is the only team whose resume won't get a big bump from the championship game if they win.

Also, I don't trust this committee to follow anything they're guided to do that closely. I've seen their reasoning rely on what ifs and close calls more than actual outcomes to this point.
 
ELTEXAN said:
Thanks for bringing up opponents. Whats the comparative SOSs again?
Click to expand...

Texas has a higher SOS and is still ranked below Oregon? Damn, the committee must think Oregon would whoop that Longhorn ass.
 
DayButtAssMans’s said:
Okay, why'd you vote for Oregon then?
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Ummm. For the reason you quoted me stating: they will wanna put in Bama, and so they must take Texas since we beat Bama.

You literally quoted me.
 
ELTEXAN said:
The committee is EXPLICITLY guided to look at head to head. It’s the second criterion explicitly listed after ‘conf titles.’

This is why I think they would leave out Oregon.

They will want to put in Bama, and they cannot leave Texas out if they do.
Click to expand...

You're looking at this as if the committee decides 1-4 all at once.

They pick #1, then #2, then #3, then #4.



Additionally, H2H is only used to differentiate teams as a "tiebreaker". If they feel Bama is clearly the better team, they can toss the H2H.
 
ELTEXAN said:
Ummm. For the reason you quoted me stating: they will wanna put in Bama, and so they must take Texas since we beat Bama.

You literally quoted me.
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Okay, take that argument to the should thread then. This is the would thread, and they have kept Oregon in front of both teams for weeks. Your argument that they want to put in Bama so they have to put in Texas doesn't hold up when they've constantly said Oregon is better than both teams before they even had currently ranked wins, which they'll have a couple of in this scenario.
 
DayButtAssMans’s said:
Okay, take that argument to the should thread then. This is the would thread, and they have kept Oregon in front of both teams for weeks. Your argument that they want to put in Bama so they have to put in Texas doesn't hold up when they've constantly said Oregon is better than both teams before they even had currently ranked wins, which they'll have a couple of in this scenario.
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Exactly. The last chance they had to move the other teams ahead of Oregon was last week's rankings.

From here on out, Oregon is only going up (barring a loss).
 
michaeljordan_fan said:
You're looking at this as if the committee decides 1-4 all at once.

They pick #1, then #2, then #3, then #4.



Additionally, H2H is only used to differentiate teams as a "tiebreaker". If they feel Bama is clearly the better team, they can toss the H2H.
Click to expand...
The committee doesn’t decide the top four at once, but the individual voters (lobbyists) definitely do.so IN EFFECT the committee does.

And yes, it is a tie breaker for those teams which are close. And THEY ARE. Not a single actual person in these forums or in the committee is going to start an argument that one of those teams is clearly beyond the others.
 
ELTEXAN said:
And yes, it is a tie breaker for those teams which are close. And THEY ARE. Not a single actual person in these forums or in the committee is going to start an argument that one of those teams is clearly beyond the others.
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The committee has already shown that they believe Oregon to be clearly beyond the others.
 
ELTEXAN said:
The committee is EXPLICITLY guided to look at head to head. It’s the second criterion explicitly listed after ‘conf titles.’

This is why I think they would leave out Oregon.

They will want to put in Bama, and they cannot leave Texas out if they do.
Click to expand...
This is the right answer
 
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