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First, these kids can change on a dime. I am hesitant to criticize anyone for being wrong.Insiders often hear what they want to hear I think. Every teams insiders often has something different to say.
I've been reading for weeks from ours that we were leading for him and he had been our #1 RB target all along.
But there are insiders, and there are insiders. The least trustworthy are the new Twitter bread of "insiders." They are trying to build a brand, and they often rip off paid-for sites. They tend to be young, so they really are limited in their connections.
The next level of insiders are the staff on what @Thiefery calls the $9.95ers. They tend to be more fan oriented, and have an interest in putting out news for their subscribers. That said, these guys mostly have been around a long time, have way better sources than the Twitter guys, and are fairly accurate.
The best insiders, and I've only seen these for UGA on Rivals, are the ones that clearly are within the program. Rivals UGASports.com has about 5 of these guys. You can tell that part of their job is to be on the site to control the craziness. I am on all the Dawg sites, and they are by far the best with inside info. Hell, they have a former UGA coach on their staff. But even these guys get it wrong from time to time because the recruits are fickle as hell.