What was the difference?

[WhosYourDawggy]

We were pretty lucky with injuries this year (sans our top offensive lineman breaking his leg).

You have to be lucky to win the NC. Look at our game in the Peach Bowl against tOSU ... Bowers makes an unreal play on 4th down doing his plank to stay in bounds, we get the targeting call reversed, Day makes some bone-headed calls on the last drive, and the kicker shanks a game winning FG, and then TCU beats UM.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Derp.



Michigan's team finished with the 2nd highest rated defense since 2000 according to the SP+ rankings.

Like I said, if you ARE the elite team in the league then you play teams that are worse than you all season long. Your logic is weird.

Every team that played us, including the #1 offense in the country, looked like dog shit for a reason. Ohio State didn't look like dog shit, until they played us. That's how it works. Elite defenses win championships.

SP+ are the worst rankings ever.

Post-Bowl SP+ Rankings​

TEAM	RATING	OFFENSE	DEFENSE	SPEC. TEAMS
1. Georgia (13-1)	31.2	41.5 (5)	12.3 (5)	1.9 (4)
2. Michigan (14-0)	31.0	36.5 (12)	7.3 (1)	1.8 (7)
3. Oregon (12-2)	26.4	45.1 (1)	18.2 (16)	-0.5 (84)
4. Ohio St. (11-2)	25.1	31.6 (33)	8.0 (2)	1.5 (20)
5. Penn St. (10-3)	23.3	32.7 (30)	10.6 (4)	1.3 (28)
6. Texas (12-2)	23.2	39.3 (6)	17.7 (11)	1.6 (17)
7. Alabama (12-2)	23.1	36.8 (11)	15.6 (8)	2.0 (2)
8. Notre Dame (10-3)	20.1	36.3 (14)	16.7 (10)	0.5 (53)
9. Florida St. (13-1)	19.4	34.1 (23)	16.5 (9)	1.8 (8)
10. Missouri (11-2)	19.3	36.5 (13)	18.0 (14)	0.8 (45)
11. LSU (10-3)	19.1	44.6 (2)	25.0 (52)	-0.5 (82)
12. Washington (14-0)	18.8	41.8 (4)	23.9 (44)	0.8 (47)
13. Ole Miss (11-2)	18.4	36.3 (15)	19.2 (23)	1.3 (26)
14. Kansas St. (9-4)	16.2	38.9 (7)	21.8 (33)	-0.8 (90)
15. Tennessee (9-4)	16.2	34.8 (18)	19.2 (22)	0.6 (52)
16. Texas A&M (7-6)	15.6	34.5 (20)	18.8 (20)	-0.1 (72)
17. Oklahoma (10-3)	15.0	38.5 (8)	22.5 (38)	-1.0 (94)
18. Arizona (10-3)	14.2	37.4 (9)	23.1 (40)	-0.2 (78)
19. Oregon St. (8-5)	12.8	33.3 (26)	22.2 (35)	1.7 (10)
20. JMU (11-2)	11.8	34.6 (19)	23.8 (43)	1.0 (40)
21. Maryland (8-5)	10.9	28.3 (56)	17.7 (13)	0.4 (59)
22. Kentucky (7-6)	10.4	31.5 (34)	22.2 (34)	1.1 (39)
23. Clemson (9-4)	10.4	29.2 (51)	19.0 (21)	0.2 (66)
24. SMU (12-2)	10.0	34.1 (22)	23.0 (39)	-1.1 (98)
25. Kansas (9-4)	9.9	35.6 (17)	26.1 (62)	0.4 (60)
26. UCLA (8-5)	9.8	29.7 (47)	18.4 (17)	-1.5 (108)
27. Troy (11-3)	9.8	30.7 (42)	20.1 (28)	-0.8 (89)
28. Miami (7-6)	9.5	30.7 (41)	23.1 (41)	1.9 (3)
29. USC (8-5)	9.5	43.4 (3)	32.7 (105)	-1.2 (99)
30. Duke (8-5)	9.4	27.3 (63)	19.5 (25)	1.5 (18)
31. Wisconsin (7-6)	9.3	22.3 (86)	14.2 (7)	1.3 (29)
32. Utah (8-5)	8.6	26.7 (65)	19.3 (24)	1.2 (34)
33. Liberty (13-1)	8.0	36.2 (16)	26.3 (64)	-1.9 (123)
34. Louisville (10-4)	7.9	30.1 (46)	22.3 (36)	0.2 (64)
35. TCU (5-7)	7.9	33.5 (25)	25.3 (54)	-0.3 (80)
36. Auburn (6-7)	7.6	26.4 (68)	20.1 (29)	1.3 (27)
37. Iowa St. (7-6)	7.5	26.4 (67)	20.1 (27)	1.1 (37)
38. W. Virginia (9-4)	7.5	31.5 (35)	24.6 (49)	0.5 (54)
39. NC St. (9-4)

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Michigan's defense was the difference. Last year we had multiple true freshman starting and playing major roles defensively. Will Johnson, Kenny Grant, Mason Graham. We had guys who changed from the offense to the defense, like Mike Sanistril and we didn't have the depth on the defensive line we had this year.

So at every level, we had inexperience and at the most important level, in the trenches, we didn't have depth. We added Josiah Stewart at DE, we added 4 year starter Mike Wallace at CB, we added Ernest Hausmann at LB from the portal.

Michigan was able to rotate 8-10 guys on the DL, without any drop off. We rotated 4 guys in and out at Safety without any drop off. With the addition of Wallace and the extra year of experience with Will Johnson and Mike Sanistril. They were a well oiled machine. Michigan didn't even play a clean game defensively against Washington. I haven't seen them blow two coverages in a game all year. They did it against Washington. Thankfully Washington missed on one. The other was the only big play we gave up all game on the deep ball to Odunze.

Michigan's offense is no different. It is the exact same offense, but with an OL that wasn't as good as the last two years, but with more depth. Hell -- our OL wasn't as good this year, even when we had our All-American OL Zinter. We lost him for the year in the OSU game. So we ran for the 300+ in the title game without our best OL.

Lastly -- returning so many guys from last year allowed Jesse Minter to put in new wrinkles in his defense. Allowed him to add in more disguised coverages, more hidden blitzes. Michigan doesn't have an actual elite DE. We overwhelmed many teams with defensive schemes that would simply confuse OL's. That is exactly what we did against Bama and Washington. We had so many guys with free runs at the QB, because of the confusion the defense brought up front. Also -- Michigan is unbelievably strong at the DT position and it allowed our DL to only rush 4, as they will push the pocket and make the QB uncomfortable.

So while I typed a whole lot. The difference was WAY more depth, another year of experience playing under the same DC (Minter was a 1st year DC for UM last year) and great additions from the portal.

TLDR - UM had a bunch of seniors and guys that had been there for a long time. Credit to Harbaugh for making that happen.

They were much like the 2018 Clemson team. When there isn't an elite team in CFB, that's when a deep, experienced team that gets lucky (you have to have it to win a NC) can do what UM did.

 

[osubuckeye89]

For sure ... I don't think UM wins in a 12-team field this year. UGA got effectively blocked with a 3-point loss in the SECCG. FSU had a bad injury to the QB blocking their path. Bama doesn't have a QB who can carry the team for the first time in a long time, and their OL reverted to early season form. I think we all agreed that CFB was down this year from years past. There was never one or two teams that you looked at and said, yeah, they are just better than everyone else. UM certainly wasn't that team.

That shouldn't take away from what UM did. Going to 15-0 is tough to do. They did enough to win, beating Bama something we didn't do this year. Whether it was UW or UM, they looked like shit. What a difference in one week. Wow.

I think Michigan had a pretty good chance if it was a 12 teamer this year. It probably woulda been them or UGA. Texas/Washington/Bama werent winning it (and neither was Oregon sorry OD lol)

It's gonna be even tougher now, getting that BYE is 100% crucial.

 

[osubuckeye89]

TLDR - UM had a bunch of seniors and guys that had been there for a long time. Credit to Harbaugh for making that happen.

They were much like the 2018 Clemson team. When there isn't an elite team in CFB, that's when a deep, experienced team that gets lucky (you have to have it to win a NC) can do what UM did.

Transfer portal was also crucial for them. Not sure they are in the same position without it, they completely shored up their OL with experienced proven guys from other schools instead of having to plug in generic younger 3* recruit and hope they worked out. Also had a couple of good defensive contributors and Barner who is a stud blocking TE from the portal.

Unlike in the past mostly, A team like Michigan who doesn't recruit in the top 5-10 every year can absolutely win it all now with that little boost they can get from the portal.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think Michigan had a pretty good chance if it was a 12 teamer this year. It probably woulda been them or UGA. Texas/Washington/Bama werent winning it (and neither was Oregon sorry OD lol)

It's gonna be even tougher now, getting that BYE is 100% crucial.

We would have been the toughest out for them. We were 4th in Total Offense, and 9th in Total Defense. We would have stopped the run and made the QB pass which isn't what they would want to do. And our offense was higher than Washington and way higher than Bama. We would have scored a lot more than either of those teams. But, that's how it goes.

 

[Deep Creek]

Bama and UW are not as good as GA from last year. TCU got lucky vs MI last year.

Nope. TCU played just like they had all year in that semifinal against Michigan. I probably watched all but 3-4 of their games last year. If anything they played a little worse against Michigan than their average game in 2022. They'd have "got lucky" if they'd played way above their heads.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

For sure ... I don't think UM wins in a 12-team field this year. UGA got effectively blocked with a 3-point loss in the SECCG. FSU had a bad injury to the QB blocking their path. Bama doesn't have a QB who can carry the team for the first time in a long time, and their OL reverted to early season form. I think we all agreed that CFB was down this year from years past. There was never one or two teams that you looked at and said, yeah, they are just better than everyone else. UM certainly wasn't that team.

That shouldn't take away from what UM did. Going to 15-0 is tough to do. They did enough to win, beating Bama something we didn't do this year. Whether it was UW or UM, they looked like shit. What a difference in one week. Wow.

Just so I get this straight -- Michigan wouldn't win in a 12 man field, because of the teams who didn't make it in?!?! Oh wait -- let me guess, your unbiased opinion is Georgia would have won.

And no one "blocked Georgia" -- Georgia lost to Alabama. Also, Georgia was NOWHERE NEAR the team they were the last two years.

Michigan beat every top team in the B1G. We beat the SEC Champ. We beat the PAC Champ. We not only beat those teams -- our defense held Alabama to their lowest offensive totals of the season. Michigan held Washington to their lowest offensive totals of the season.

 

[Deep Creek]

We would have been the toughest out for them. We were 4th in Total Offense, and 9th in Total Defense. We would have stopped the run and made the QB pass which isn't what they would want to do. And our offense was higher than Washington and way higher than Bama. We would have scored a lot more than either of those teams. But, that's how it goes.

Yeah, they probably don't win a 12 team one. Your QB an oline was a lot better than Bama's. Until they played Washington, they hadn't really faced a good QB. Maryland and UNLV may have been the best QBs they played.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Transfer portal was also crucial for them. Not sure they are in the same position without it, they completely shored up their OL with experienced proven guys from other schools instead of having to plug in generic younger 3* recruit and hope they worked out. Also had a couple of good defensive contributors and Barner who is a stud blocking TE from the portal.

Unlike in the past mostly, A team like Michigan who doesn't recruit in the top 5-10 every year can absolutely win it all now with that little boost they can get from the portal.

I posted this somewhere the other day:

1. Top-end HS recruiting, supplementing with portal to fill needs, great developers, lose a lot each year but retain those that matter - this allows for consistent winning - reloaders, not rebuilders. Bama, UGA, tOSU?

2. Heavy emphasis on portal, poor HS recruiting - Colorado - no chance of success.

3. Decent top-10ish HS recruiting, heavy portal - ATM, Miami, FSU - don't think you can build the culture needed to win consistently.

4. Decent 5-10-ish recruiting, portal to fill holes, able to develop and retain talent so you have have a cycle of very experienced seniors - UM, maybe UW - chance to cycle to a NC, but not sure about sustained success.

Coaching matters more than anything. Good evaluators, good developers. Can build a culture. Decent to elite game coaching, knows how to build a staff.

With the 12-team CFP, and expanded SEC and B1G, you will see a lot of teams cycle in and out of the CFP-12. A school like OkSU, Baylor, ISU, Iowa, Ole Miss, Whisky will get in a couple times a decade. A school like NCSU, NW will get in once a decade.

Those in no. 1 above are reloaders and they will be in 8-10 a decade.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Just so I get this straight -- Michigan wouldn't win in a 12 man field, because of the teams who didn't make it in?!?! Oh wait -- let me guess, your unbiased opinion is Georgia would have won.

And no one "blocked Georgia" -- Georgia lost to Alabama. Also, Georgia was NOWHERE NEAR the team they were the last two years.

Michigan beat every top team in the B1G. We beat the SEC Champ. We beat the PAC Champ. We not only beat those teams -- our defense held Alabama to their lowest offensive totals of the season. Michigan held Washington to their lowest offensive totals of the season.

Yes, you have that correct, IMO. I think we would beat you 7 times out of 10 if we played you. We would shut down your run, and you don't have a QB that worries anyone. Our offense is better than anything you faced this year - UGA 4, Washington 12, Alabama 54. So we would score points against your top defense. So we would score more points than you are used to, and you would have a hard time scoring enough to keep up with us.

The 12-man field makes it harder for everyone, not just UM. Having to play an extra game against, in the example of a 12-team this year, UGA, Oregon, FSU, or tOSU makes it more likely that you get beat.

I used the word "blocked" very specifically in context with the CFP-4 v. CFP-12. Yes, you were blocked from having to face us this year because only 4 teams got in and we lost the SECCG. In a CFP-12 we wouldn't have been "blocked" and you likely would have had to play us.

Good for you on all the teams you beat. But UGA was one of the best teams at the end of the year and in my opinion were the one team setup that could have beaten you. We didn't get the chance in the real-world CFP-4, but would in a CFP-12.

Don't be so defensive, dimwit, you are the national champion. Enjoy it. We are obviously talking hypotheticals here, as one does on a sports board. You get to say that you won it in real life. At least until it is vacated for cheating.

BTW, you are going to get this all year, deal with it. We had to hear all about injured WRs, targeting penalties, etc. It's the way it goes.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Yeah, they probably don't win a 12 team one. Your QB an oline was a lot better than Bama's. Until they played Washington, they hadn't really faced a good QB. Maryland and UNLV may have been the best QBs they played.

Either they made Penis look terrible, or he had a bad game. I was amazed by his performance against UT. He looked pedestrian against UM. Probably a combination of both.

I don't think I ever saw someone's NFL stock to up so fast and then come crumbling down.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

But UGA was one of the best teams at the end of the year and in my opinion were the one team setup that could have beaten you. We didn't get the chance in the real-world CFP-4, but would in a CFP-12.

Ending the year with a 31-23 over Georgia Tech and losing to Bama means Georgia was one of the best teams at the end of the year??

I think you watched the bowl game with FSU and Georgia winning by 60 and decided to ignore they were playing the 3rd and 4th string of FSU, as had like 25 guys sit out, not including the guys who went in the portal.

If Georgia was playing like one of the best teams in the country -- they would have been in the CFP. It wasn't like they had Bama beat and Bama got lucky. Bama controlled that game. They led by 10 at the half. They led by 10 going into the 4th quarter. I don't think Georgia even had the ball with a chance to take the lead at any point in the 2nd half. Bama was the better team.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Michigan is the ONLY undefeated champ of the playoff era to hold every one of its opponents under 30 points. Not only did they do that, they shattered it and held every opponent to 24 points or less .

 

[Deep Creek]

Michigan is the ONLY undefeated champ of the playoff era to hold every one of its opponents under 30 points. Not only did they do that, they shattered it and held every opponent to 24 points or less .

They're the best ever.

 

[Across The Field]

The Sagarin overall team rankings get used quite a bit on here (I know @ericd7633 is a fan), and according to his metrics, 2023 michigan is the 16th best team of the playoff era. Washington was the 2nd worst team to make a championship game, with TCU being the only one rated lower. Basically everything I said is echoed by his rankings, this year was overall a down year for the CFP.

 

[ellupo]

Nope. TCU played just like they had all year in that semifinal against Michigan. I probably watched all but 3-4 of their games last year. If anything they played a little worse against Michigan than their average game in 2022. They'd have "got lucky" if they'd played way above their heads.

2 pick 6 is lucky for any team. So yes lucky.

 

[Deep Creek]

2 pick 6 is lucky for any team. So yes lucky.

So any team that has two pick 6s in a game is “lucky”? Two fumbles returned for TDs is lucky?

How about Michigan shouldn’t have thrown those two pick 6s instead of TCU getting lucky. That thought ever cross your mind?

Again, TCU played pretty close to their normal game…not a “lucky” game. Check out there game results that year and you’ll see for ypurself.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Ending the year with a 31-23 over Georgia Tech and losing to Bama means Georgia was one of the best teams at the end of the year??

I think you watched the bowl game with FSU and Georgia winning by 60 and decided to ignore they were playing the 3rd and 4th string of FSU, as had like 25 guys sit out, not including the guys who went in the portal.

If Georgia was playing like one of the best teams in the country -- they would have been in the CFP. It wasn't like they had Bama beat and Bama got lucky. Bama controlled that game. They led by 10 at the half. They led by 10 going into the 4th quarter. I don't think Georgia even had the ball with a chance to take the lead at any point in the 2nd half. Bama was the better team.

What I and everyone else watched was a team go undefeated in the regular season and then lose in the SECCG and not get in a CFP-4. It happens. It wouldn't have happened in a CFP-12 which is what we are hypothesizing about. In a CFP-12 there is a much better chance that at the end of the playoff, you get the best 2. Not always - maybe we lose again to Bama or someone else. But that's the idea of the CFP-12.

While you don't think we were a top 4 team, season-ending polls had us at 4 (AP), and 3 (coaches). In the 10 years of the CFP-4 we were the only team that was no. 1 at the last week to drop out of the top 4. We lost to Bama by 3, it's not like we got blown out. Again, it was just one of those years where the CFP-4 format didn't work, just ask FSU. Looking forward to the CFP-12 where we can play it out on the field, not in hypotheticals.

As I have stated here all season, there was no elite team this year. That includes UM. It was a down year in CFB which actually made it more interesting. As we have all stated, this is the first time in years that the top 8 had a legit shot at winning. Most certainly the top 6. The semis were great games, and the NC was close until well into the 4th quarter. Ratings were high. Enjoy the win, but stop with the UM is one of the best teams of all time nonsense. You have a great D but a pedestrian O (ranked 67th). That's not been the formula for the winners until this year. And it likely won't be in the future.

As for UGA, we were one of the best teams at the end of the year and like I said we would have been the worst match-up for you because we had good D and O (5th on O, 9th on D - the only team to be in the top 10 in both). We could have stopped your pedestrian O, and likely scored more points even against your good D. Your statement that if we were playing like the best we would have been in the CFP-4 ignores the reality of the CFP-4 ... we didn't get in because we weren't one of the best 4, we didn't get in because the way the CFP-4 is set up teams can get left out. It happens but won't in the future.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

The Sagarin overall team rankings get used quite a bit on here (I know @ericd7633 is a fan), and according to his metrics, 2023 michigan is the 16th best team of the playoff era. Washington was the 2nd worst team to make a championship game, with TCU being the only one rated lower. Basically everything I said is echoed by his rankings, this year was overall a down year for the CFP.

I can't seem to find the full list -- but "making the final" is a low bar here. There's been 40 teams in the playoff, 2023 Washington was probably in the top 20 of that. I'd like to see the full list. Because the only way to actually know this is if you took the average ranking of all four teams, every year of the playoff, and then compared that average rank. Saying that because one team got into the playoff who's the lowest rank (TCU) doesn't factor in the other 3 teams to proclaim "this was overall a down year for the CFP". Just because a year had a lower ranked team, doesn't mean squat about the other 3 teams.