2022 College Football Playoff Discussion Thread

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Miami who lost to MTSU. Virginia Tech who lost to Old Dominion. I mean, shit, even Duke is 6-3.

Northwestern lost to Duke. Point for the B1G West.
Nebraska lost to Georgia Southern.
Minnesota's only 'bad' loss is getting routed by Penn State by 4+ touchdowns.
Wisconsin lost to Washington State 17-14 (not sure if they are good or not this year)
Purdue lost 32-29 to Syracuse. Another point for the B1G West.
Iowa worst game was a win -- they need two safeties and a FG to beat South Dakota State 7-3

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

I don't think it would be much of a spread with TCU versus Michigan, Tennessee or even LSU

I'd bet they'd be at least a TD underdog to any of them. They don't stop the run or pass. I can't really say that for LSU, as I haven't really followed them, but Michigan and Tennessee they'd definitely be at least a touchdown underdog to them.

Hell -- TCU is a 7 point dog this week against Texas.

 

[Collegefbfan]

I'd bet they'd be at least a TD underdog to any of them. They don't stop the run or pass. I can't really say that for LSU, as I haven't really followed them, but Michigan and Tennessee they'd definitely be at least a touchdown underdog to them.

Hell -- TCU is a 7 point dog this week against Texas.

Is this because Texas is back? I have heard that a time or 6,000.

 

[UbetterDUCK]

Yeah, the ACC ain't too swift this year. But I'm not so sure some of the rest of them are either. That's why I'm looking forward to 12. Let's let 'em in and play it off on the field.

Let's take teams 4-7. I think TCU, Tennessee and Oregon's would fare pretty well against Ohio State and Michigan. But we've already seen how well Tennessee and Oregon did against Georgia. I think TCU would fare about the same. In fact, I'd say teams 2-10 are really all about the same.

Whole heartily agree. Would love to see an eight team playoff without Georgia involved. Ultimate compliment Dawgs.

 

[OlyDuck]

Yeah, it does have to play out, and it will be well worth watching and following. A few things that are entering my brain as we discuss this here:
1) This is a major one. They can talk all they want to about the first week loss Oregon had to Georgia. But, hey, wait a minute. Wasn't that Georgia's first game also? Does the "it was the first game" excuse only work for the losing team to benefit them? If this is gonna benefit Oregon, does it discount what Georgia did?
2) Tennessee has 2 top 25 wins and 4 top 50 wins at the moment, and SOS is 19th. Oregon has 1 top 25 win and 3 top 50 wins, and SOS is 49th. All this according to Colley. I am not saying his stuff is the gospel.
3) Tennessee has played a one win Akron team, and the rest of the teams they played are above 0.500. Oregon has played one win Colorado, and the rest of the teams Oregon played, three are way below 0.500.
4) Going forward, Tennessee doesn't really play any team that moves the needle (as of now). Oregon has teams coming up that are a combined 20-7. A lot can happen with these outcomes to help or hurt Tennessee and Oregon.

1. it was georgias first game but it wasnt the Smarts first game as a head coach. it wasnt the teams first game with this system. it wasnt the QBS first game with the team in this new system.
2. the same Colley that has Oregon 2spots behind UCLA who they beat?
3. splitting hairs maybe but .5 is not above .5. and in the remaing schedule that kind of evens out as 2 of the 3 Tenn opponents are well under and all 3 of oregons are over. as you point out in 4.

 

[Volbound1700]

Whole heartily agree. Would love to see an eight team playoff without Georgia involved. Ultimate compliment Dawgs.

Georgia is the best team but don't crown them too quickly. Tennessee laid an egg Saturday and Georgia played one of their best games. Ohio State also laid an egg. There could be a situation where Georgia doesn't play well on neutral field against Ohio State, Oregon, or Tennessee and loses.

The win was impressive but envision a few plays going the other way and Saturday's game could have looked different. Also remember that Alabama smacked Georgia last year in Atlanta but Georgia came back as 4 seed and won it all. A lot can happen in football. Ohio State hasn't really been tested with their schedule so they are a lot like Georgia was prior to this weekend and they are waiting on that chance to explode.

 

[Volbound1700]

1. it was georgias first game but it wasnt the Smarts first game as a head coach. it wasnt the teams first game with this system. it wasnt the QBS first game with the team in this new system.
2. the same Colley that has Oregon 2spots behind UCLA who they beat?
3. splitting hairs maybe but .5 is not above .5. and in the remaing schedule that kind of evens out as 2 of the 3 Tenn opponents are well under and all 3 of oregons are over. as you point out in 4.

The weakness is Oregon doesn't play top team on the road. UCLA had to travel almost a 1000 miles to play you guys in Autzen. Oregon lost, bad, the only major road game. Tennessee has the win @ LSU which is #7 in playoffs. That is currently a bigger win than anything Oregon has. The Alabama win is probably more comparative to Oregon's UCLA win.

It is the LSU game that is putting Tennessee ahead of Oregon right now.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Tennessee laid an egg Saturday and Georgia played one of their best games.

Oregon said the same thing. A team lays an egg when they face a team they should easily beat and they struggle. What happened to Oregon and Tennessee -- they faced a defense who could match the tempo of their offense with the athleticism, size and speed of their defense. Against Tennessee -- Georgia just overwhelmed the OL of Tennessee. They had 7 or 8 sacks in the game.

 

[Volbound1700]

Oregon said the same thing. A team lays an egg when they face a team they should easily beat and they struggle. What happened to Oregon and Tennessee -- they faced a defense who could match the tempo of their offense with the athleticism, size and speed of their defense. Against Tennessee -- Georgia just overwhelmed the OL of Tennessee. They had 7 or 8 sacks in the game.

Don't get me wrong, Tennessee laid an egg.

However, there were plenty of mistakes. One total falsity was that our WRs didn't get open. We had two potential explosive plays that Hooker overthrew (no pressure) in the first half that would have been 2 TDs and changed complexity of the game.

The False starts on that first drive and the drive in the 4th quarter impacted our ability to score 7 (one ended up being a FG, the other ended up pushing us 20 yards back and forced a 4th and long that was not converted).

We made mistakes. I am not sure if Georgia made a lot of mistakes or not but they definitely played inspired. I would also say the Georgia crowd was a little more hostile for Tennessee than anyone else they played all year long. It was basically the reverse of what we had and did against Alabama. We landed those passes, Alabama made the false start errors, and Alabama had the hostile crowd.

This stuff may not happen a second time.

I am not sure about Oregon but I will say that blow-outs can be misleading sometimes. Momentum is a real thing in football and it highly impacts a teams performance. I called the Oregon game an "ambush" because Georgia had a lot of advantages going into that game that they would not have in other situations:

1. First time coach with Oregon
2. First time QB start with Oregon
3. Oregon traveling across the country

 

[RobBase]

Nobody wants to play MN. So I hear.

 

[Collegefbfan]

1. it was georgias first game but it wasnt the Smarts first game as a head coach. it wasnt the teams first game with this system. it wasnt the QBS first game with the team in this new system.
2. the same Colley that has Oregon 2spots behind UCLA who they beat?
3. splitting hairs maybe but .5 is not above .5. and in the remaing schedule that kind of evens out as 2 of the 3 Tenn opponents are well under and all 3 of oregons are over. as you point out in 4.

In relation to #1, did Oregon's defense know the system when they allowed almost as many points to Washington State as they did Georgia? And that was three weeks later.

 

[fishinabarrel]

1. First time coach with Oregon
2. First time QB start with Oregon
3. Oregon traveling across the country
4. Oregon's band couldn't be found

Can't believe you forgot the most important reason for the loss

 

[Deep Creek]

I'd bet they'd be at least a TD underdog to any of them. They don't stop the run or pass. I can't really say that for LSU, as I haven't really followed them, but Michigan and Tennessee they'd definitely be at least a touchdown underdog to them.

Hell -- TCU is a 7 point dog this week against Texas.

Tennessee would be the biggest favorite against them because TCU struggles in pass defense from what I've observed. But, Tennessee does too. That might turn into one of those "whoever has the ball last wins" type games.

Texas should be a 7 point favorite. Ewers may have one of his best days.

 

[Deep Creek]

Georgia is the best team but don't crown them too quickly. Tennessee laid an egg Saturday and Georgia played one of their best games. Ohio State also laid an egg. There could be a situation where Georgia doesn't play well on neutral field against Ohio State, Oregon, or Tennessee and loses.

The win was impressive but envision a few plays going the other way and Saturday's game could have looked different. Also remember that Alabama smacked Georgia last year in Atlanta but Georgia came back as 4 seed and won it all. A lot can happen in football. Ohio State hasn't really been tested with their schedule so they are a lot like Georgia was prior to this weekend and they are waiting on that chance to explode.

Absolutely. Georgia can have a clunker game just like anyone else.

Even though we've seen lopsided games in the CFP semis, such as you describe can happen. I think we'll get more upsets in a 12 team playoff than we've had in the 4...even though the #1 seed hasn't won it all that often.

Let's use Bama as a test case. They lose close ones on the road at Texas, Tennessee and LSU. Even though Tennessee killed LSU, Texas lost to a middling Tech and Okie Lite and Tennessee laid an egg last Saturday, is there really THAT much difference in those three? Same could be said for all the teams ranked from 2-20 really. Give Ohio State, Michigan and TCU Bama's schedule to date. Would they be undefeated at this point? I highly doubt it.

 

[Deep Creek]

Oregon said the same thing. A team lays an egg when they face a team they should easily beat and they struggle. What happened to Oregon and Tennessee -- they faced a defense who could match the tempo of their offense with the athleticism, size and speed of their defense. Against Tennessee -- Georgia just overwhelmed the OL of Tennessee. They had 7 or 8 sacks in the game.

All true. But on a given day, where was that Georgia team when they played that 4-5 Mizzou? Georgia's capable of laying an egg as well. They just got by with a win when they laid one.

 

[Volbound1700]

College Football Board

All true. But on a given day, where was that Georgia team when they played that 4-5 Mizzou? Georgia's capable of laying an egg as well. They just got by with a win when they laid one.

The game @ Miss State this weekend for Georgia is a classic trap game for them after the Tennessee win.

However, Kirby Smart has apparently got them prepared. Georgia was prepping hard for both Miss State and Tennessee going into the season and even throughout the season because both teams run unique offenses/play styles versus other teams on Georgia's schedule. This is another factor as to why Georgia has frankly weathered Tennessee (and is likely to whether Miss State) better than anyone. It also explains why Georgia was lethargic against some teams like Kent State and Missouri that they probably didn't prep for.

Based off what I am hearing, Georgia should beat Miss State despite how much it looks like a trap to them.

 

[Deep Creek]

College Football Board


The game @ Miss State this weekend for Georgia is a classic trap game for them after the Tennessee win.

However, Kirby Smart has apparently got them prepared. Georgia was prepping hard for both Miss State and Tennessee going into the season and even throughout the season because both teams run unique offenses/play styles versus other teams on Georgia's schedule. This is another factor as to why Georgia has frankly weathered Tennessee (and is likely to whether Miss State) better than anyone. It also explains why Georgia was lethargic against some teams like Kent State and Missouri that they probably didn't prep for.

Based off what I am hearing, Georgia should beat Miss State despite how much it looks like a trap to them.

Georgia is also benefitting from unbalanced schedules this year. Auburn and Miss State from the West? Where's Bama, LSU and Ole Miss?

 

[Volbound1700]

Georgia is also benefitting from unbalanced schedules this year. Auburn and Miss State from the West? Where's Bama, LSU and Ole Miss?

They had a weak front end schedule minus Oregon.

They are in a tough slate right now made up of:

Florida, Tennessee, @ Miss State, @ Kentucky, Georgia Tech (yeah this one may not be tough).

Their schedule is back ended.

Same with a lot of the Pac12. That is why I think a lot of the Pac12/Oregon vs Tennessee talk is probably premature.

 

[Deep Creek]

They had a weak front end schedule minus Oregon.

They are in a tough slate right now made up of:

Florida, Tennessee, @ Miss State, @ Kentucky, Georgia Tech (yeah this one may not be tough).

Their schedule is back ended.

Same with a lot of the Pac12. That is why I think a lot of the Pac12/Oregon vs Tennessee talk is probably premature.

Meh, Miss St, Kentucky and Georgia Tech ain’t that tough of a stretch to end the season. Miss St and Kentucky would have been tougher earlier in the year.

 

[Collegefbfan]

Absolutely. Georgia can have a clunker game just like anyone else.

Even though we've seen lopsided games in the CFP semis, such as you describe can happen. I think we'll get more upsets in a 12 team playoff than we've had in the 4...even though the #1 seed hasn't won it all that often.

Let's use Bama as a test case. They lose close ones on the road at Texas, Tennessee and LSU. Even though Tennessee killed LSU, Texas lost to a middling Tech and Okie Lite and Tennessee laid an egg last Saturday, is there really THAT much difference in those three? Same could be said for all the teams ranked from 2-20 really. Give Ohio State, Michigan and TCU Bama's schedule to date. Would they be undefeated at this point? I highly doubt it.

I think you meant close win at Texas, right? Alabama beat Texas. The other two were close losses. I feel the 12 team playoff will be great football. We are dealing with kids here, and some coaches might not have the "mindset" that Kirby, Saban, Dabo (in previous seasons) have. When a highly ranked team plays #10, #11, or #12, the highly ranked team could have that "let's throw our uniforms on the field and get us a win".