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Winning and losing is only a portion of RPI. Like you mentioned about Rutgers missing the tourney with 44 wins, their RPI was 43, which isn't going to cut it for at large typically.We shall see I guess. Wins and Losses are components of RPI.
The cream will rise to the top.
Florida is barely over .500 and 31 in the RPI. If they just play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll be just fine because they face only high RPI teams.
But take UC Irvine, arguably the second best team in the west. Sitting at 24-4, they are 17 in RPI. But even if they win out, it'll probably drop because its remaining schedule has opponents ranked in the 100's and 200's. A couple of losses to those teams, they might be on the outside looking in (if another team like Cal Poly wins the conference)