A B1G (and CFP) What If...

[osubuckeye89]

An 11-1 OSU should absolutely get in ahead of a 12-1 UGA that isn't a conference champ. UGA wouldn't have a top 20 win more than likely. OSU would have 2(maybe 3).

The more interesting situation is if UGA is undefeated going into the SEC title game and then loses to a 2 loss SEC West team (I fully expect no one in the SEC west to have under 2 losses). Expecting only 1 spot is available here. I wouldn't be shocked if UGA got put in over the 2 loss team that just beat them.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

An 11-1 OSU should absolutely get in ahead of a 12-1 UGA that isn't a conference champ. UGA wouldn't have a top 20 win more than likely. OSU would have 2(maybe 3).

First, a 12-1 SECC isn't going to get left out, especially if they are going for a three-peat. Unless you have 4 undefeated CCs.

But, you don't seem to be keeping up with current events. We currently have the 11 (SECCG), 16, 20, 22 ranked teams on our schedule.

- Ky is looking good, they are ranked 20.
- Ole Miss just beat LSU the game FSU is hanging their hat on.
- We will have to beat a top 10-ish team in the SECCG, likely Bama.
- UTjr looked good last week.

Compare our schedule against UM's and tell me how it's more difficult.

I just looked at tOSU and UM and PSU ... please tell me what games, other than the ones they play against each other than make their schedule so tough? tOSU has you guys, but you barely beat Duke (yes, they are better than normal, but they are still Duke).

You folks are putting way more weight into our "weak" schedule than you should be, especially when we don't know how weak it will actually be or not. I won't defend our OOC ... when we didn't play OU, that set it back. But this idea that the B1G schedules of tOSU/UM/PSU are so tough seems a stretch.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

The more interesting situation is if UGA is undefeated going into the SEC title game and then loses to a 2 loss SEC West team (I fully expect no one in the SEC west to have under 2 losses). Expecting only 1 spot is available here. I wouldn't be shocked if UGA got put in over the 2 loss team that just beat them.

It would all depend on the other conference champs. There is a precedent for what you stated ... didn't PSU get screwed when tOSU got in one year?

 

[Across The Field]

I think the B1G would probably have the best argument this year if the 2 teams are Ohio State & Michigan.

The SEC jumps in though if Bama can manage not to lose again and UGA stays undefeated. Bama obviously isn't at their top caliber this year. But that wouldn't stop them from putting them in if they had the chance to.

This would be impossible since they'd meet in the CCG.

 

[Across The Field]

It would all depend on the other conference champs. There is a precedent for what you stated ... didn't PSU get screwed when tOSU got in one year?

PSU was a 2-loss team. They got destroyed by michigan (who OSU beat) and also lost to a bad Pitt team. Their win over OSU that year was also at home and extremely flukey.

 

[osubuckeye89]

This would be impossible since they'd meet in the CCG.

I mean if Bama can avoid losing again before the CCG game.

 

[osubuckeye89]

First, a 12-1 SECC isn't going to get left out, especially if they are going for a three-peat. Unless you have 4 undefeated CCs.

But, you don't seem to be keeping up with current events. We currently have the 11 (SECCG), 16, 20, 22 ranked teams on our schedule.

- Ky is looking good, they are ranked 20.
- Ole Miss just beat LSU the game FSU is hanging their hat on.
- We will have to beat a top 10-ish team in the SECCG, likely Bama.
- UTjr looked good last week.

Compare our schedule against UM's and tell me how it's more difficult.

I just looked at tOSU and UM and PSU ... please tell me what games, other than the ones they play against each other than make their schedule so tough? tOSU has you guys, but you barely beat Duke (yes, they are better than normal, but they are still Duke).

You folks are putting way more weight into our "weak" schedule than you should be, especially when we don't know how weak it will actually be or not. I won't defend our OOC ... when we didn't play OU, that set it back. But this idea that the B1G schedules of tOSU/UM/PSU are so tough seems a stretch.

Yea the SEC champ is never getting left out with 1 loss.

Hell they might put a 1 loss UGA in over a team like UNC or Wazzu if they ended up one of the 4 undefeated CC category.

Ohio State definitely would have the best argument over Penn State & Michigan for getting in as a non champ with 1 loss. Notre Dame probably will finish 9-3 at worst. Michigan doesn't have a OOC game worth mentioning and while Penn State's WVU win looks a lot better now than it did before the season, still not as good. I'm not counting on them throwing us a bone 2 years in a row though. We better beat Michigan and win the B1G this year if we want to sniff the playoff.

 

[Across The Field]

I mean if Bama can avoid losing again before the CCG game.

Well if that's the case, Bama would definitely be out at 11-2.

 

[osubuckeye89]

Well if that's the case, Bama would definitely be out at 11-2.

Not if they beat UGA though. We'd be getting Bama and UGA both in the playoff for sure. Unless by good grace there were enough undefeated P5 teams to stop it.

I don't think any SEC west team will finish with under 2 losses though, but we will see.

 

[Across The Field]

Not if they beat UGA though. We'd be getting Bama and UGA both in the playoff for sure. Unless by good grace there were enough undefeated P5 teams to stop it.

I don't think any SEC west team will finish with under 2 losses though, but we will see.

If Bama beats UGA, there's no way UGA is getting in over Texas, even if they're 12-1. I'd be shocked if the B1G champ isn't unbeaten, and given the depth of the Pac-12 UGA wouldn't have the firepower.

 

[ericd7633]

First, a 12-1 SECC isn't going to get left out, especially if they are going for a three-peat. Unless you have 4 undefeated CCs.

But, you don't seem to be keeping up with current events. We currently have the 11 (SECCG), 16, 20, 22 ranked teams on our schedule.

- Ky is looking good, they are ranked 20.
- Ole Miss just beat LSU the game FSU is hanging their hat on.
- We will have to beat a top 10-ish team in the SECCG, likely Bama.
- UTjr looked good last week.

Compare our schedule against UM's and tell me how it's more difficult.

I just looked at tOSU and UM and PSU ... please tell me what games, other than the ones they play against each other than make their schedule so tough? tOSU has you guys, but you barely beat Duke (yes, they are better than normal, but they are still Duke).

You folks are putting way more weight into our "weak" schedule than you should be, especially when we don't know how weak it will actually be or not. I won't defend our OOC ... when we didn't play OU, that set it back. But this idea that the B1G schedules of tOSU/UM/PSU are so tough seems a stretch.

I said a 12-1 UGA as a non SEC Champion. Meaning you lose the SECCG. And yeah, those teams are ranked towards the back half of the top 25, but there is no way they all remain ranked. My guess is only one of TN, KY and Missouri stay ranked. Hell TN shouldn't even be ranked now.

Also, there is a reason I said OSU, not Michigan. Michigan doesn't have an ND win, and doesn't get to play Wisconsin. Michigan's schedule is shit, outside of PSU and OSU.

Also, beating Duke is a hell of let better than anything UGA has done this year.

 

[osubuckeye89]

If Bama beats UGA, there's no way UGA is getting in over Texas, even if they're 12-1. I'd be shocked if the B1G champ isn't unbeaten, and given the depth of the Pac-12 UGA wouldn't have the firepower.

Texas is about the only team they wouldn't get in over. They've been itching for a chance to finally get Texas in. I think they'd pick UGA for sure over Ohio State/Penn State/Michigan if both were 1 loss non champs for the last spot. Right or wrong their recent success affords them that bias.

 

[Across The Field]

Texas is about the only team they wouldn't get in over. They've been itching for a chance to finally get Texas in. I think they'd pick UGA for sure over Ohio State/Penn State/Michigan if both were 1 loss non champs for the last spot. Right or wrong their recent success affords them that bias.

I definitely think a 12-1 non-conf champ UGA would get in over a 1-loss OSU/PSU/michigan non-conf champ, you're right there. I wouldn't even necessarily disagree with it, depending on who the loss was to and how bad it was. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, I could see even an unbeaten FSU getting left out just due to how pedestrian they've looked, and how bad LSU has looked. Now, if there ended up being a 12-1 conf champ OSU, 13-0 FSU, 13-0 PAC champ, 12-1 Bama conf champ, and 12-1 UGA conf runner-up, that would be VERY interesting.

 

[osubuckeye89]

Michigan not playing Wisconsin hurts them quite a bit as well. Wisconsin may very well go 10-2, 8-4 is probably the floor.

 

[osubuckeye89]

I definitely think a 12-1 non-conf champ UGA would get in over a 1-loss OSU/PSU/michigan non-conf champ, you're right there. I wouldn't even necessarily disagree with it, depending on who the loss was to and how bad it was. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, I could see even an unbeaten FSU getting left out just due to how pedestrian they've looked, and how bad LSU has looked. Now, if there ended up being a 12-1 conf champ OSU, 13-0 FSU, 13-0 PAC champ, 12-1 Bama conf champ, and 12-1 UGA conf runner-up, that would be VERY interesting.

I want 5 undefeated P5 champs, that would be the most interesting one to watch. Especially since we wouldn't be one of the ones sweating it out if the were in that undefeated club.

In this scenario the SEC 12-1 is getting left out. I don't think theres any way they could justify putting them in over a 12-1 conference champ Ohio State/Michigan.

Penn State however I don't think gets the same pull, they might may very well get left out of that 1 loss non champ UGA.

 

[iowajerms]

Big Ten Conference Football Divisional Tiebreaker

The Big Ten football championship will be decided by a game played between the two division champions. A team or teams that are not eligible to participate in a postseason football bowl game as a result of NCAA and/or Big Ten sanctions shall not be eligible to participate in the Big Ten...

bigten.org

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

1. If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
2. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.

1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.

------ In your scenario, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State would be 1-1.
(a) Example: East 1 is 2-0 in games between the tied teams with wins over East 2 and 3 - East 1 would be the representative.

2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.

------ In your scenario, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State would be 5-1.

3. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).

------- It would be the same among Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.
(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

4. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.

----- Would be the same among Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State

5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.

------ This will probably be the deciding factor. It will be the record of their B1G West opponents. Which team has the tougher one will be the winner of the division.
(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.

6. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).
(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
(b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)

7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.

8. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

If one or both of the Big Ten division champions is ineligible to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, then the participant(s) in the Big Ten Championship Game shall be determined by the following procedure:

1. If the ineligible team is tied for the division championship, then the team it tied with shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
2. If two or more teams are tied with an ineligible team for the division championship, then the ineligible team is removed and the remaining teams revert to the tie-break procedure.
3. The division runner-up shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
4. If there is a division runner-up tie, then the tied teams shall revert to the tie-break procedure.

If the championship game cannot be played (due to any reason beyond the control of the Big Ten Conference), the two division champions (using divisional tie-breakers as set forth above) shall be declared co-champions and the following procedure will be used to determine the Big Ten Conference representative to the College Football Playoff:

1. Teams ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll will automatically be placed in the College Football Playoff.
2. If the two divisional representatives met previously in the season and neither is ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll, the team ranked highest in the final poll shall be the representative to the College Football Playoff, unless the other team is ranked within five or fewer places of the higher ranked team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the two teams shall determine the conference's representative.
3. If the two divisional representatives did not meet previously during the season, the team ranked highest in the College Football Playoff poll shall be the representative.
4. If the two teams are tied in the College Football Playoff poll, the team with the best overall Big Ten record shall be the representative.
5. If the two teams remain tied after d), the team with the best combined record of the tied teams against all common Big Ten opponents each team played that season shall be the representative.
6. If the two teams remain tied after e), the representative will be the team with the best overall winning percentage.
7. If the two teams remain tied after f), the representative will be the team furthest removed from College Football Playoff, Bowl Championships Series or Rose Bowl Game participation (as appropriate).
8. If the two teams remain tied after g), the representative shall be determined by a random draw.

 

[Tharvot]

It would all depend on the other conference champs. There is a precedent for what you stated ... didn't PSU get screwed when tOSU got in one year?

I wouldn't say "screwed". PSU was a 2-loss team while Ohio State's only loss that season was against PSU. Because they won the head-to-head, PSU got into the B1G championship game, which they won.

They were never ranked in the CFP ahead of Ohio State. There was some argument that they should be considered ahead of Ohio St by virtue of winning the conference title, but that h2h argument gets really murky when you throw in Michigan who beat PSU by 39 that season and was also a 2-loss team (ranked ahead of PSU but behind tOSU).

In the end, it didn't matter. Desaun Watson and Clemson mopped the floor with the Buckeyes in the CFP semis while PSU lost a shootout vs USC in the rose bowl.

 

[osubuckeye89]

I wouldn't say "screwed". PSU was a 2-loss team while Ohio State's only loss that season was against PSU. Because they won the head-to-head, PSU got into the B1G championship game, which they won.

They were never ranked in the CFP ahead of Ohio State. There was some argument that they should be considered ahead of Ohio St by virtue of winning the conference title, but that h2h argument gets really murky when you throw in Michigan who beat PSU by 39 that season and was also a 2-loss team (ranked ahead of PSU but behind tOSU).

In the end, it didn't matter. Desaun Watson and Clemson mopped the floor with the Buckeyes in the CFP semis while PSU lost a shootout vs USC in the rose bowl.

Yep if Penn State had 1 loss you could say they got screwed, but they lost to a 8-5 Pitt team, wasn't like that 2nd loss was to some elite team either.

Ohio State also had 3 top 10 wins to Penn State's 2. And another win against a 9 win Nebraska team that was better than Penn State's next best win after Ohio State & The B1G Title Game Against Wisconsin.

 

[iowajerms]

Michigan not playing Wisconsin hurts them quite a bit as well. Wisconsin may very well go 10-2, 8-4 is probably the floor.

Michigan not playing Iowa and Wisconsin could hurt them.

Next weekend could be big factor as Iowa plays Wisconsin.

Penn State had that nail biter 31-0 victory over Iowa
Ohio State plays Wisconsin in a few weeks.

PSU doesn't play Wisconsin.
Iowa doesn't play Ohio State.

 

[Across The Field]

I want 5 undefeated P5 champs, that would be the most interesting one to watch. Especially since we wouldn't be one of the ones sweating it out if the were in that undefeated club.

In this scenario the SEC 12-1 is getting left out. I don't think theres any way they could justify putting them in over a 12-1 conference champ Ohio State/Michigan.

Penn State however I don't think gets the same pull, they might may very well get left out of that 1 loss non champ UGA.

I think PSU would also be left out in that discussion, even if they're 12-1 and conf champs, simply because the B1GW doesn't have a legit contender so them going 1-1 vs OSU/mich would be their only leg to stand on.