CFP v DEC3

[WhosYourDawggy]

We will see how that holds up lol. In the end they are gonna do whatever they want come actual selection time.

They could not have been more clear ... any team not playing this weekend is stuck in position with regard to other teams not playing this weekend. A team not playing can go up or down, but that is because of teams that play this weekend. So, looking at Bama and Miami, there is no way they will change order. That means that if SMU wins, Bama is in. Miami not even considered at that point. If Clemson wins, the Committee has to decide whether SMU or Bama is in. The only thing SMU has going for it is that they were ahead of Bama before they played an extra game and can argue that teams shouldn't be punished for playing an extra game. Everything else favors Bama. I do think the should protect SMU in that situation.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Bama is in regardless. SMU will drop below them with a loss to Clemson

Not if they protect conference losers. Right now they think SMU is better ... 3 spots better. If you aren't supposed to penalize CCG losers, SMU would take the 11th slot.

 

[Collegefbfan]

I know for many years, the goal was to win your conference. Do your best to win 'em all in the process. A lot of people here, podcast folks, YouTube streamers, etc. have brought up the point that not winning your conference, and you only have 1-2 losses, you are in the 12 team playoff. And even though the conference champ is in, is it "better" to not even go to your conference championship and get in as a 5-7 seed and host a playoff game? Which teams would actually go this route? It is like the NFL resting their players because they are "in".

 

[Thiefery]

I know for many years, the goal was to win your conference. Do your best to win 'em all in the process. A lot of people here, podcast folks, YouTube streamers, etc. have brought up the point that not winning your conference, and you only have 1-2 losses, you are in the 12 team playoff. And even though the conference champ is in, is it "better" to not even go to your conference championship and get in as a 5-7 seed and host a playoff game? Which teams would actually go this route? It is like the NFL resting their players because they are "in".

teams want that bye..

 

[osubuckeye89]

If you think about it, the whole concept of guaranteed byes for the highest ranked conference champions is nuts to begin with. That should be reserved for the teams considered the best four IMO. But supposedly, they want the CFP to be inclusive...........sort of.

CFB people are too used to conference championships meaning a ton to ever change. But seeing 3 loss teams swooping into BYEs might change it at some point.

 

[Collegefbfan]

CFB people are too used to conference championships meaning a ton to ever change. But seeing 3 loss teams swooping into BYEs might change it at some point.

I was just gonna type a question related to this factor. These expanded conferences, especially the SEC and B1G, could send a 3 loss team if they keep scheduling these tougher out of conference games. Could a 4 loss P2 team get a bye?

 

[Deep Creek]

I’m still a little baffled as to how Notre Dame is worthy of a top 5 ranking.

They beat 8 win A&M and 8 win Louisville. Good teams I suppose but…

But that isn't much different than several more teams up there with them. Texas, Penn State, SMU, Indiana and Boise have similar resumes.

#2 Texas - no wins over currently ranked teams
#3 Penn State - win over #21 Illinois
#4 Notre Dame - win over #24 Army
#8 SMU - no wins over currently ranked teams
#9 Indiana - no wins over currently ranked teams
#10 Boise - no wins over currently ranked teams

 

[osubuckeye89]

I was just gonna type a question related to this factor. These expanded conferences, especially the SEC and B1G, could send a 3 loss team if they keep scheduling these tougher out of conference games. Could a 4 loss P2 team get a bye?

With no divisions anymore it would take a real down year across the board for a 4 loss team to get to a P4 Conference Title game. We are on the being of a 3 loss team getting a BYE in year 1 If Clemson wins though.

 

[Hu War Yu]

Not if they protect conference losers. Right now they think SMU is better ... 3 spots better. If you aren't supposed to penalize CCG losers, SMU would take the 11th slot.

I get the feeling SMU will be spanked pretty hard by the committee for losing to a 3-loss team and not having any other ranked wins

 

[Collegefbfan]

With no divisions anymore it would take a real down year across the board for a 4 loss team to get to a P4 Conference Title game. We are on the being of a 3 loss team getting a BYE in year 1 If Clemson wins though.

Yeah just on a random thought, an SEC team loses two conference games and loses two really tough out of conference games to teams that only have a loss or two each.

 

[Collegefbfan]

I get the feeling SMU will be spanked pretty hard by the committee for losing to a 3-loss team and not having any other ranked wins

I could totally see this. However, I do wonder if that is why the committee didn't rank Duke like #24 or #25. Duke doesn't have a bad loss, they are 9-3, they lost to SMU by one point in OT. This way, the committee can't say SMU beat a #24/#25 Duke team. Not that it would weigh that much, but still.

 

[Boise4Life]

But that isn't much different than several more teams up there with them. Texas, Penn State, SMU, Indiana and Boise have similar resumes.

#2 Texas - no wins over currently ranked teams
#3 Penn State - win over #21 Illinois
#4 Notre Dame - win over #24 Army
#8 SMU - no wins over currently ranked teams
#9 Indiana - no wins over currently ranked teams
#10 Boise - no wins over currently ranked teams

Boise beat #20 UNLV on the road

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Yeah just on a random thought, an SEC team loses two conference games and loses two really tough out of conference games to teams that only have a loss or two each.

In order to preserve OOC, I think they are going to have to mix things up. Think about how ATM and Clemson were behind the 8 ball all season long because of OOC losses early. I said this a bunch of times here - if Clemson had played GaSouthern instead of UGA to start the season, they would have been ranked about 5th before the USCjr game. Two of their 3 losses were OOC. Why would they continue to schedule tough OOC?

So, I think what will happen is that everyone will agree to go to 14 games in 2 years. There will be AQs for each conference - 3 for SEC and B1G, 2 for the ACC and B12, 1 for the G5. That leaves 3 at-large. Then each conference can determine their champion and representatives. Then Clemson and SMU would be lined up for the 2 AQs for the ACC, ASU and ISU for the B12, Texas, UGA, and UTjr for the SEC, and UO, tOSU, and PSU for the B1G. ND would get an at large, Bama would get an at-large, and then the 3rd would to Miami based on the standings this year.

The point is that if the conferences determine their representatives based on the conference schedules, you wouldn't be hurt playing OOC.

If they don't go that route, they have to do an RPI/Quad win-based evaluation where schedule matters. Face it, the conferences are different and the level of play is different. That simply has to be taken into account. In some cases, some teams played much tougher schedules, while others had very easy schedules. That has to be considered.

We'll see what happens in the future, but this year very few teams have a gripe, and we can make a reasoned argument why they were left out:

- USCjr - you can't lose 3 games, and 2 of those can't be to teams ahead of you.
- Miami - you have to play a better schedule. That will be the conferences making that happen.
- Ole Miss - don't lose to 2 crappy teams, and 1 mid team (even though UF was pretty good at that point in the season)

 

[Pitman]

and UNLV beats Boise?

I can see this happening, most teams have gotten better and we have not.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

With all the crying from one another about who gets in, I'd like to see this clip get remade under the guise of the CFP.



Charles McHutchence - Alabama
Harrison Greeley III - South Carolina

Reverend Anders - Miami

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

and UNLV beats Boise?

Yes, this will be interesting. They have BSU at 10. There is no way that they will give 2 spots to G5 schools. So it UNLV wins, BSU has to be out. Yet, they have said they will protect CCG losers, and they evidently believe BSU is better than Bama, Miami, and others. Once again, they are inconsistent.

 

[ELTEXAN]

 

[Big Al Rogorson]

The CFP committee just makes up the “criteria” as they go to fit what they want that’s obviously been true and it’s never gonna change

Nailed it.

 

[dhoey]

I could totally see this. However, I do wonder if that is why the committee didn't rank Duke like #24 or #25. Duke doesn't have a bad loss, they are 9-3, they lost to SMU by one point in OT. This way, the committee can't say SMU beat a #24/#25 Duke team. Not that it would weigh that much, but still.

It's the same reason they shove Missouri so far up. Optics

Top 1 loss team.
Top 2 loss team.
Top 3 3 loss teams.

I'm surprised they didn't keep Texas a&m in there.

 

[Hu War Yu]

- USCjr - you can't lose 3 games, and 2 of those can't be to teams ahead of you.
- Miami - you have to play a better schedule. That will be the conferences making that happen.
- Ole Miss - don't lose to 2 crappy teams, and 1 mid team (even though UF was pretty good at that point in the season)

Alabama: you can't lose 3 games, and two of those can't be to 6-6 teams