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1. No shit, Sherlock. There is no way to get it perfect, because it didn't happen. But, this does give us as good a guestimate as we can get for the purpose of the discussion.Meh using the rankings as they were and assuming the additions would hold is false facts. A fringe team (12, 13) that would have "got in" prob misses if they played another team that was there. Ie does both 12 ok and 13 lsu make it in last season had they played in same conference?
2. If the committee is given the correct mission, and they don't just look at losses, then you are going to find teams getting in from the SEC and B1G that will have one more loss than a team from the ACC or B12. That should resolve your concern that a 12 LSU might have another loss compared to 13 Baylor or some other ACC or B12 team. The B1G and SEC teams are going to play much tougher schedules than the other two P2 conferences.
So, sure, there will be more losses for the P2, but the committee's mission will also be different and that will account for that.
I can tell you this ... the first time the committee starts just ranking them by wins and losses will be the last time. We still don't know if it's going to be the 3 AQs for the P2, 2 for the other P4, and 1 for the G6, but if the committee doesn't look at that, then the P2 will change the formula the next year.