Mondays game is gonna be a classic.

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

That is going to be a sick matchup. Those two will be playing against each other for a long time on Sunday's. Poor Will Johnson is only a true sophomore, so while almost our entire team goes to the NFL draft next year -- he will be back.

 

[Codaxx]

So does that mean Michigan should say -- what Washington doesn't know is -- their passing offense rules on subpar pass defenses.

Let's look at the superior pass defenses Washington has faced this year.

Boise State 107th ranked passing defense
Tulsa 127th ranked passing defense
Michigan State 88th ranked passing defense
California 128th ranked passing defense
Arizona 90th ranked passing defense
Arizona State 119th ranked passing defense
Stanford 130th ranked passing defense
USC 101st ranked passing defense
Utah 65th ranked passing defense
Oregon State 82nd ranked passing defense
Washington State 89th ranked passing defense
Oregon 54th ranked passing defense
Texas 113th ranked passing defense

The BEST passing defense they faced all year ranks 54th out of 130 teams. Stanford, Cal, Tulsa are 3 of the 4 worst pass defenses in all of CFB. Michigan ranks 2nd.

Did I do this right?

I would use passer rating or yards per pass.. Cumulative stats don’t always paint an accurate picture

 

[Codaxx]

Michigan's offensive line isn't as good as it was the last two years. They are still good, but not like the last two years. Plus, our All-American OL broke his leg in the OSU game, so he obviously hasn't played since.

So stopping Michigan running the ball is possible. Usually early in games -- teams do pretty good against the run. It is the 2nd half where UM's offensive style wears on teams. Michigan has to get to that point though. If Washington gets up early -- they may have to change things up.

For the first time all year -- I hope we win the coin toss and take the ball. Because I think getting out in front is going to be a huge advantage for whichever team gets out front.

Michigan should be able to move the ball on the ground. It may be dominant in the second half. The interesting battle will be Penix and his OL vs Michigan’s schemes. They bring pressure from everywhere. Will they be able to make the proper mental decisions to pick up the blitzes? Michigan plays a ton of zone. They are also one of the better teams at masking their coverages. It will look like Quarters and shift to cover 3 at the snap. They will have someone follow a WR/RB across the formation, indicator of man, and then drop into zone. This is probably the most complex defense in the College. How a team reacts to it the first time seeing it is a mystery

 

[Codaxx]

I would add that people are underestimating the Washington rush defense based on the Texas game. Washington came in focused on the RPO and screen game for Texas. They dared Texas to be patient and run the ball. I would expect their game plan for Michigan will be the polar opposite. If JJ has a good game, than Washington is in serious trouble

 

[Deep Creek]

Would you go as far to say, the team who scores the most points will win?

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Michigan should be able to move the ball on the ground. It may be dominant in the second half. The interesting battle will be Penix and his OL vs Michigan’s schemes. They bring pressure from everywhere. Will they be able to make the proper mental decisions to pick up the blitzes? Michigan plays a ton of zone. They are also one of the better teams at masking their coverages. It will look like Quarters and shift to cover 3 at the snap. They will have someone follow a WR/RB across the formation, indicator of man, and then drop into zone. This is probably the most complex defense in the College. How a team reacts to it the first time seeing it is a mystery

Yeah -- Michigan essentially runs a NFL style defense. It is almost a carbon copy of what the Ravens run. Our last two defensive coordinators came from the Ravens system. Our DC who left, left to be the DC of the Ravens. Jim and John Harbaugh swap coaches back and forth.

Michigan's offense is the same. It is really complex, which is why this year is more an anomaly than a regular occurrence for Michigan. We have a ton of guys who are back as 5th or 6th year guys and we had 6 or 7 guys who could have went to the NFL last year, but decided to come back.

It is why next year -- UM will likely have to rebuild. I think defensively UM will be alright because of the depth they have. Offensively -- it is going to be a mystery. I am not looking forward to the schedule we play next year.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

I would add that people are underestimating the Washington rush defense based on the Texas game. Washington came in focused on the RPO and screen game for Texas. They dared Texas to be patient and run the ball. I would expect their game plan for Michigan will be the polar opposite. If JJ has a good game, than Washington is in serious trouble

I'm not. I expect Washington to do essentially what every team does against Michigan. Move the safeties. Put 8 in the box. Michigan sees that so much -- it won't be a surprise to them. I think UM will start slow against Washington -- that is what worries me. We can't get behind them or we will have to chase and we aren't built to chase multiple scores.

How Washington handles UM's TE's will be another big part if they can stop UM's offense. Colston Loveland is a mismatch for any LB. Barner is tough to handle too, with a ton of experience. Michigan will be running sets on offense, Washington hasn't seen all year. 2 TE sets. 6 OL and 2 TE sets. 2 TE sets with a FB. 3 TE sets. Michigan runs a really bizarre offense for the college game, but the complexity of the offense, with all the motions and movement, along with all the different personnel groups coming in and out confuses teams at times.

 

[Red_Alert]

So does that mean Michigan should say -- what Washington doesn't know is -- their passing offense rules on subpar pass defenses.

Let's look at the superior pass defenses Washington has faced this year.

Boise State 107th ranked passing defense
Tulsa 127th ranked passing defense
Michigan State 88th ranked passing defense
California 128th ranked passing defense
Arizona 90th ranked passing defense
Arizona State 119th ranked passing defense
Stanford 130th ranked passing defense
USC 101st ranked passing defense
Utah 65th ranked passing defense
Oregon State 82nd ranked passing defense
Washington State 89th ranked passing defense
Oregon 54th ranked passing defense
Texas 113th ranked passing defense

The BEST passing defense they faced all year ranks 54th out of 130 teams. Stanford, Cal, Tulsa are 3 of the 4 worst pass defenses in all of CFB. Michigan ranks 2nd.

Did I do this right?

We can also look at the superior passing offenses Michigan faced this year.

Passing Offenses

East Carolina (120th)
UNLV (55th)
Bowling Green (104th)
Rutgers (124th)
Nebraska (126th)
Minnesota (123rd)
Indiana (82nd)
Michigan St (96th)
Purdue (84th)
Penn St (78th)
Maryland (21st)
Ohio St (30th)
Iowa (127th)
Alabama (68th)

Washington (1st)

Only two Top 30 passing offenses on the entire schedule in Maryland (21st) and Ohio St (30th). Both were close games at 31-24 and 30-24 respectively.

Removing Maryland and Ohio St leaves those average passing offenses at 98th.

So Washington's offense didn't play good passing defenses, and Michigan's defense didn't play good passing offenses.

We'll see what breaks I guess.

 

[Jon Deaux]

Will Penix be able to complete passes in tight coverage against the Michigan defense? He has done a great job so far this season .
Will the Michigan defense be able to get to Penix the way they did Milroe? What, 4 or 5 sacks in the first half.
Which coach will make the best adjustments?
Can Michigan be successful as a run first team against the Washington defense?

All these questions and more will be answered in the next episode of Soap.

 

[ralphiewvu]

You guys know what I mean. It's either going to be a finish like the semi games were, or one of these teams win comfortably.

I too do not see a tie happening.

 

[Wizardhawk]

The problem with using these stats is they don't translate perfectly across leagues. For example, Pac D's look bad against the pass partially because they had to go up against such high flying teams.

The Ducks had 3 games all year where they gave up 30+: To UW twice and gave up exactly 30 to Texas Tech. Other than those, they gave up 2 other games over 20 points even and both were pretty decent offenses.

Would B1G teams look worse on pass D if they played against Nix, Williams, Penix, Ward, etc?

And the same can be said for the things the B1G faces that Pac 12 teams don't in terms of different types of offenses and defenses.

We won't know who really can stand up until we see it tomorrow.

 

[Jon Deaux]

The problem with stats

Lies
Damn lies
Statistics

 

[navamind]

Lies
Damn lies
Statistics

 

[Codaxx]

Pts per drive-
Michigan- 3.47 #5 in the country
Washington- 3.45 #6

Pts allowed per drive
Michigan- 0.89 #1
Washington- 2.06 #50

 

[Wild Turkey]

The Bama vs Michigan game was supper sloppy on both sides but the Washington vs Texas game both teams seemed really dialed in. If Michigan makes early mistakes like they did against Bama it could go badly but they definitely have a really good pass rush so Washington is going to need to get the ball out quick and be able to capitalize on the run game.

Does anyone have a status of Washington's RB that went out of the game late against Texas? If they are down a starting RB that could be a huge issue.

 

[Wizardhawk]

The Bama vs Michigan game was supper sloppy on both sides but the Washington vs Texas game both teams seemed really dialed in. If Michigan makes early mistakes like they did against Bama it could go badly but they definitely have a really good pass rush so Washington is going to need to get the ball out quick and be able to capitalize on the run game.

Does anyone have a status of Washington's RB that went out of the game late against Texas? If they are down a starting RB that could be a huge issue.

Uh, UW muffed a punt return and Texas fumbled twice. I'd call that sloppy lol

Johnson will play. It's the same foot injury he's been battling for a while now. Doubt he's 100% but will leave it all out on the field.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Uh, UW muffed a punt return and Texas fumbled twice. I'd call that sloppy lol

Johnson will play. It's the same foot injury he's been battling for a while now. Doubt he's 100% but will leave it all out on the field.

Dude Michigan nearly threw an interception on the first play and muffed two punts (in fact their strategy should be not to even put anyone back for kicks).

Both of you guys were clean as a whistle compared to the clown show before you.

 

[Codaxx]

Dude Michigan nearly threw an interception on the first play and muffed two punts (in fact their strategy should be not to even put anyone back for kicks).

Both of you guys were clean as a whistle compared to the clown show before you.

Texas, Michigan, and Bama all played very sloppy games. Washington was the cleanest and most prepared team last weekend. They are one of the oldest teams to play for a championship and they looked like it.

 

[Wizardhawk]

The x-factors of who has the most stress/ pressure on them and who do I trust most with the game on the line in the closing minutes favors Washington for sure.

I still think UW can't afford muffed punts or any other kind of turnover and expect to be in late. They have to play within themselves.

 

[navamind]

Uh, UW muffed a punt return and Texas fumbled twice. I'd call that sloppy lol

Johnson will play. It's the same foot injury he's been battling for a while now. Doubt he's 100% but will leave it all out on the field.

Ewers also went 24/43. To be fair, Washington's pass defense is pretty good and it seemed like they were tipping quite a few balls.

Most frustrating part about the special teams woes against Bama is that the unit was good all year. There's no excuse for trying to catch a punt inside the ten though.