GAME National Championship: Washington vs Michigan 7:30pm ET ESPN

Tharvot said:
For me, keys to each team winning tonight:

Washington - hit explosive plays/force turnovers early. If they can jump out to an early 2-score lead, it could get Michigan completely out of their gameplan. Defense must stuff the run and clamp down on the short-to-intermediate passing plays on early downs.

Michigan - pound the rock and wear the defense down. Long, sustained drives early will lead to explosive plays later on as the defense tires. Force Penix to check down all night and don't fumble punts.
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Should add Michigan special teams can’t be special, like they were vs Bama
 
Tharvot said:
That would be a very bad thing for Washington. They absolutely need to stuff the run as much as possible, especially on early downs.
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Easier said then done. I think Washington best chance is to not to miss on offense and get this game to the 30s which I think they can do with Penix

I leaning towards the Over at 56.5
 
Tharvot said:
For me, keys to each team winning tonight:

Washington - hit explosive plays/force turnovers early. If they can jump out to an early 2-score lead, it could get Michigan completely out of their gameplan. Defense must stuff the run and clamp down on the short-to-intermediate passing plays on early downs.

Michigan - pound the rock and wear the defense down. Long, sustained drives early will lead to explosive plays later on as the defense tires. Force Penix to check down all night and don't fumble punts.
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I think Michigan is going to look like a 2010s Wisconsin. Run 50 times with 15-20 passes. Close 1st half and clock eating drives in the second half. If your(Washington) weakness is run defense, you are in for a long night.
 
Kburjr said:
I think Michigan is going to look like a 2010s Wisconsin. Run 50 times with 15-20 passes. Close 1st half and clock eating drives in the second half. If your(Washington) weakness is run defense, you are in for a long night.
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I mean, UW just shut down Oregon's ground game a month ago. I know we love to talk about stat rankings in here, oregon is the 31st running offense in the NCAA, Michigan is 60.

No doubt Michigan is good at controlling games, but this is the first time UW gets to focus on the run and not worry as much about getting beaten down field.
 
DayButtAssMans’s said:
I mean, UW just shut down Oregon's ground game a month ago. I know we love to talk about stat rankings in here, oregon is the 31st running offense in the NCAA, Michigan is 60.

No doubt Michigan is good at controlling games, but this is the first time UW gets to focus on the run and not worry as much about getting beaten down field.
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2 different running schemes. Michigan is straight out power football. To compare them to Oregon is apples and oranges.
 
Kburjr said:
2 different running schemes. Michigan is straight out power football. To compare them to Oregon is apples and oranges.
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you dont say paul hollywood GIF by BBC
 
DayButtAssMans’s said:


If I were a Michigan fan, I'd be so pissed at this turd, he just won't stop :lol: .
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These talking heads are wrong as much as weatherman are. They're literally the same. Be wrong, but tomorrow you're an expert again.

"tEh #1 DeFeNsE in AmEriCa"

They continue to omit that the Michigan opponents offenses were fucking terrible.

"fLoRiDa WiLL WiN bEcAuSe iT's On gRaSS"

Final 62-24 Nebraska.



^^ There's your fucking experts ^^
 
Kburjr said:
2 different running schemes. Michigan is straight out power football. To compare them to Oregon is apples and oranges.
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Here's what no one knows:

UW had game plans on D to take something away from each of the big teams they have played and were able to do so well enough to not lose any of those games. They gave up some big plays, but were able to keep the game in front of them after keying on their goal each game.

What are they going to key on this game and how well will they do it?

It's too simplistic to say take the run away, because no shit that's what they need to do.

Are they going to try to focus on funneling them inside and take the edges away? Try to squeeze them to the outside?

They have faced power run, but not at the scale or ability of MI this year. It isn't that they are known to be bad at it. It is unknown if they have a workable plan for it.
 
DayButtAssMans’s said:
you dont say paul hollywood GIF by BBC
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Just my take. Your are welcome to yours.

I never follow gross stats anymore. Even when I did, I developed a deeper dive built on percent of opponents stats allowed. For instance, if you opponent had an average of giving up 150 yards rushing per game and you rush for 200, you would get a score off 133 for that game. Total up the scores for the year. There are more complications to it, but I tended to do pretty well in late season pickems.
 
Don't get me wrong. I'm not writing Washington off. I just think that power football is more easily sustainable than a passing offense. I think the 2-1 moneyline in the bookie is crazy. Closer to 55-45.
 
DayButtAssMans’s said:
I mean, UW just shut down Oregon's ground game a month ago. I know we love to talk about stat rankings in here, oregon is the 31st running offense in the NCAA, Michigan is 60.

No doubt Michigan is good at controlling games, but this is the first time UW gets to focus on the run and not worry as much about getting beaten down field.
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Different styles. Michigan's run game is more power and counter, under center with more big bodies than most teams run. Oregon spreads you out and runs a ton of RPO.

I wouldn't say you don't have to worry about getting beaten down field, it's just a different way of getting there. Michigan will suck in the defense if their run game is effective. Then their TEs or WRs can torch you over the top or with deep posts/corners off play action.

Comes down to you just gotta win on first down. When Michigan stays ahead of the chains, they're really hard to get off the field.
 
Wizardhawk said:
Here's what no one knows:

UW had game plans on D to take something away from each of the big teams they have played and were able to do so well enough to not lose any of those games. They gave up some big plays, but were able to keep the game in front of them after keying on their goal each game.

What are they going to key on this game and how well will they do it?

It's too simplistic to say take the run away, because no shit that's what they need to do.

Are they going to try to focus on funneling them inside and take the edges away? Try to squeeze them to the outside?

They have faced power run, but not at the scale or ability of MI this year. It isn't that they are known to be bad at it. It is unknown if they have a workable plan for it.
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I mean, they're unbeaten for a reason. I'm gonna be pulling for the Huskies for sure, just stating the power ground game is a matchup i don't like for Washington.

But, Penix is a trump card at the most important position. He could go off and a high scoring game definitely favors Washington.
 
Tharvot said:
Different styles. Michigan's run game is more power and counter, under center with more big bodies than most teams run. Oregon spreads you out and runs a ton of RPO.

I wouldn't say you don't have to worry about getting beaten down field, it's just a different way of getting there. Michigan will suck in the defense if their run game is effective. Then their TEs or WRs can torch you over the top or with deep posts/corners off play action.

Comes down to you just gotta win on first down. When Michigan stays ahead of the chains, they're really hard to get off the field.
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you dont say paul hollywood GIF by BBC
 
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