World Cup 2022 Qatar

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Well here is the schedule for the games with times. For me on West Coast, USA and Germany have the most of the late games, and by late I mean 11 AM out here. Germany has one 5 AM game. Would have preferred 5 AM games so I could watch before work, now I am going to do some fudging and excuse making around my job to make this work for 11 AM weekdays. Lucky for me my company going full hybrid mode permanently on August 1st with 50% of company working from home 3 days or more a week. I am one the 50% working from home so this helps immensely.

 
I still tucking hate that it’s in late fall and not summer. This is the time of year we do World Cup.

That said….I’ll still be tuning in. Just hating having to wait a little longer. Guess the bright side is we will only have 3.5 years until the next one.
 
Does this mean the U.S. is in the Group of Death?

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Does this mean the U.S. is in the Group of Death?

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Yes, statistically based on average of ranking of each team….which I think means add all rankings and divide by 4 (?). Yea, the math checks out.

I was about say it’s usually one team high in ranking that swings it, but all four teams are in the top 21 of ranking. Shit.
 
Yes, statistically based on average of ranking of each team….which I think means add all rankings and divide by 4 (?). Yea, the math checks out.

I was about say it’s usually one team high in ranking that swings it, but all four teams are in the top 21 of ranking. Shit.
I am not going to worry about it. Any given day. Those ratings aren't accurate to me. Mexico still higher ranked than Germany? Are you kidding me? How many Mexican players are on big clubs in Europe compared to Germany. No fucking way Mexico is better than Germany right now.

Hungary just walloped England twice in two weeks ranked 40th.
Ecuador (in World Cup ranked 46, Chile 28).
Iran really ranked higher than Poland? Would you rather face Iran or Poland with Lewandowski?
Canada 38 after winning CONCACAF qualifying?

It is going to be weird anyways with no runup friendlies before it starts. Last internationals will be in September. Nations League in Europe so at least they will got some quality opponents. Have you all been watching Nations League? Some pretty shocking results. England and France abysmal. This World Cup will start right in middle of League play. I expect upsets are going to occur. Players will be more fresh though than having a World Cup just after a leagues end.
 
US should get 4 points in their group, right?
 
I am not going to worry about it. Any given day. Those ratings aren't accurate to me. Mexico still higher ranked than Germany? Are you kidding me? How many Mexican players are on big clubs in Europe compared to Germany. No fucking way Mexico is better than Germany right now.

Hungary just walloped England twice in two weeks ranked 40th.
Ecuador (in World Cup ranked 46, Chile 28).
Iran really ranked higher than Poland? Would you rather face Iran or Poland with Lewandowski?
Canada 38 after winning CONCACAF qualifying?

It is going to be weird anyways with no runup friendlies before it starts. Last internationals will be in September. Nations League in Europe so at least they will got some quality opponents. Have you all been watching Nations League? Some pretty shocking results. England and France abysmal. This World Cup will start right in middle of League play. I expect upsets are going to occur. Players will be more fresh though than having a World Cup just after a leagues end.

I would rather face Iran over Poland of course.

And….I guess I would rather see Canada than Wales since we know them better.

We could probably debate all day which one of us thinks these ratings are more useless, but I’m still going to feel shaky based upon what the ratings roughly tell us AND the fact that we didn’t even make the tourney last time around. Going to take me a while to feel as good about our squad as I did in 14.

Again, shit ratings, but Wales is 18??? They have more than Bale now?
 
I just looked at Iran results for the last 3 years. Other than a tie with South Korea, their their losses are Japan and South Korea and Iraq. They have played absolutely no one else. Hong Kong? War torn Syria? Iraq? Bahrain? Cambodia? That is a bigger schedule of body bag teams than Alabama football schedules out of conference. How can accurately that high in FIFA with that schedule?
 
I would rather face Iran over Poland of course.

And….I guess I would rather see Canada than Wales since we know them better.

We could probably debate all day which one of us thinks these ratings are more useless, but I’m still going to feel shaky based upon what the ratings roughly tell us AND the fact that we didn’t even make the tourney last time around. Going to take me a while to feel as good about our squad as I did in 14.

Again, shit ratings, but Wales is 18??? They have more than Bale now?
Bale and Aaron Ramsey are their only big players and then it is mostly youngsters. Ben Davies is from Spurs. I am nervous too because USA has no consistent striker and goaltending may be even a bigger issue. You see Ethan Horvath howler Tuesday vs El Salvador in the mud? Completely misjudged the only real El Salvador shot. Take a look at the highlight, he just stands there. Matt Turner or shaky Zach Steffan are the other two and that worries me most.
 
US should get 4 points in their group, right?
You never know. I am hoping for 6 but Berhalter could stifle that. What if key players get COVID or injured before it starts? Might just want to ignore COVID like NFL did in playoffs. Just play through COVID imo.
 
Bale and Aaron Ramsey are their only big players and then it is mostly youngsters. Ben Davies is from Spurs. I am nervous too because USA has no consistent striker and goaltending may be even a bigger issue. You see Ethan Horvath howler Tuesday vs El Salvador in the mud? Completely misjudged the only real El Salvador shot. Take a look at the highlight, he just stands there. Matt Turner or shaky Zach Steffan are the other two and that worries me most.

Yep. We don’t have anywhere near a Howard level goalkeeper. And I say that as someone who had his gripes at points with Howard as well.

Yes, I saw this. He had cement in his shoes.
 

THE CURRENT RANKING SYSTEM​

FIFA announced in September of 2017 that they were looking to revamp the ranking system, with any changes likely to be put in place after the conclusion of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification process. In the end, the new ranking system was put in place in the wake of the 2018 World Cup proper, with the new-look system modelled after the Elo rating system. One of the biggest chances was the ranking of teams updated after each game that was played.

The weighting system for each of the FIFA confederations was abandoned for the new system, whilst whether the team was home or away and how many goals it won by continued to be ignored. The hope was that the new system would be in place in July, but because no matches were played that month it had to wait until August to be used. When it was eventually released, the following formula was used:

Pseeding = 1600 – (R – 1) x 4,

R was the ranking in June 2018, so if two or more teams had an equal ranking back then, then the following team was given the next possible rank. In other words, if two teams were R=5 then the next team was R=6, rather than R=7. The ratings were then changed after the following game played. This saw some dramatic changes, like previous top rank Germany falling to 15th.

From April 2021, the ranking points of a team have been calculated to two decimal points, as opposed to being rounded to the closest integer.

 

HOW IT IS CALCULATED​

From the 10th of June 2018, the current calculation method has been in place and is used after every match is played. The formula in the wake of the match is as follows:

P = Pbefore + I (W – We)

Pbefore is the number of points that the team had before the game, whilst I is the importance coefficient. That is worked out as follows:

  • 05 – Friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar window
  • 10 – Friendlies played inside the International Match Calendar window
  • 15 – Nations League group stage match
  • 25 – Nations League play-offs and finals
  • 35 – Confederations’ games before quarter-final stage
  • 40 – Confederations’ quarter-finals and onwards
  • 50 – World Cup matches before quarter-finals
  • 60 – World Cup matches from quarter-finals onwards
In the rest of the formula, W is the result of the game and We is the expected result of the game. For the results, the following points are awarded:

  • 0 – For a loss in normal or extra-time.
  • 0.5 – For a draw or a loss thanks to a penalty shootout
  • 0.75 – A win in a penalty shootout
  • 1 – Win in normal or extra-time
If a game ends in a winner but a penalty shoutout was required, such as in a two-legged tie, the penalty shoutout is ignored and it is considered to be a regular game.

We is calculated as 1 over 10 – dr/600 + 1, where dr is the difference in the ratings of the two teams before the game.
 

THE CURRENT RANKING SYSTEM​

FIFA announced in September of 2017 that they were looking to revamp the ranking system, with any changes likely to be put in place after the conclusion of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification process. In the end, the new ranking system was put in place in the wake of the 2018 World Cup proper, with the new-look system modelled after the Elo rating system. One of the biggest chances was the ranking of teams updated after each game that was played.

The weighting system for each of the FIFA confederations was abandoned for the new system, whilst whether the team was home or away and how many goals it won by continued to be ignored. The hope was that the new system would be in place in July, but because no matches were played that month it had to wait until August to be used. When it was eventually released, the following formula was used:

Pseeding = 1600 – (R – 1) x 4,

R was the ranking in June 2018, so if two or more teams had an equal ranking back then, then the following team was given the next possible rank. In other words, if two teams were R=5 then the next team was R=6, rather than R=7. The ratings were then changed after the following game played. This saw some dramatic changes, like previous top rank Germany falling to 15th.

From April 2021, the ranking points of a team have been calculated to two decimal points, as opposed to being rounded to the closest integer.

The math has one problem with Germany: nose picking, butt scratching Joaquin Lowe games are included with Hansi Flick games now. Flick has yet to lose. Longest streak for a German coach without a loss to start his career. Had recent 4 ties in row (against Netherlands, Italy, England, Hungary) which showed some cracks, but then came the beat down of Italy this week. Lowe final game with Germany was a loss to North Macedonia in WC Qualifying. So I say Germany is under rated, but we will see.
 
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