This is off Nascar.com
Scenario: 17 winners
Call this one The Chaos Theory.
If there are 17 winners, clearly a driver who has won a race will not advance to the 16-driver playoffs.
Here’s how it would be determined: Every driver with multiple wins would advance. So, Chase Elliott (4 wins), Ross Chastain (2), Joey Logano (2), Kevin Harvick (2), William Byron (2), Denny Hamlin (2) and Tyler Reddick (2) are safe. One-win drivers Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Kyle Busch also mathematically cannot be eliminated from the postseason picture if there are 17 winners, so count them in the field, too.
Of all the remaining drivers with one victory, whoever is lowest in the points standings would be eliminated and not advance to the postseason.
Of the current crop of winners, Kurt Busch is the likely odd man out in this scenario, given that he has missed four consecutive races due to recovering from concussion-like symptoms following a qualifying wreck at Pocono Raceway. However, if one of the new winners sits behind Busch in the standings, it’s possible they could win one of the remaining two races and still not advance in this scenario.
Here’s a look at the points between the remaining one-time winners this year:
Driver | Points | Behind |
Alex Bowman | 592 | — |
Daniel Suárez | 574 | -18 |
Austin Cindric | 556 | -36 |
Chase Briscoe | 549 | -43 |
Kurt Busch | 485 | -107 |
With 15 Cup Series winners so far this season, there are still various scenarios in play for this year's postseason.
www.nascar.com
I suppose that means if Truex and Blaney win the next 2 races then Busch is out.
But then when I look at the regular season standings the following are ahead of Busch in points right now Besides Truex and Blaney
Almirola
Jones
Wallace
Dillon
and Buescher only trails him by 5 points and a win would obviously take care of that.
So if there are 17 winners and any of these are one of them it's my understanding Busch would be out.