Spurs going to UCL since England probably getting a 5th team. Italy for sure getting a 5th team. Battle between Germany and England for now. But if Liverpool, Arsenal, West Ham bottle Europe and Leverkusen, Bayern, Dortmund move one (all in decent shape), then it is down to Spurs or Villa for the last spot.
Liverpool got smoked vs Atalanta in the first leg of Europa. That will hurt EPL's chances a lot since it looks like Leverkusen will dispatch West Ham as well. Comes down to Bayern vs Arsenal. Winner of that gives their country the best chance of locking up that 5th spot.
Villa still has a good chance of winning Conf League, so that could provide some much needed points, but with Europa looking so bad, EPL needs City and Arsenal to both win.