PAC News

It's inevitable. I don't see Oregon/Washington signing a GOR to stay when the PAC 12 Network is only carried by few and they're having a tough time getting a national media rights contract worth a damn.
There's not a media company gonna put their dicks on the table and pay good dividends without a long term GOR. Oregon/Washington will take a reduced share to join the Big 10 (5 years?), but Nebraska did similar and it's now paying off in security alone.
As others have said the USC/UCLA move effectively killed the PAC and any decent media deal. There's good history between the Big 10 and USC, UCLA, Washington, but not so much Oregon. Oregon's come to light the last 20 years or so and they don't appear to be going away. They recruit well and invest in their program.
The CFP took the shine outta the (Grand Daddy) Rose Bowl anyway. Actually the Bowl Alliance, Bowl Coalition, and BCS did. It's just a matter of cleaning up the scraps. Oregon/Washington are now the best available economically outside of Notre Dame and a few ACC teams that are locked up until 2036. Washington/Oregon at least care about football. They'll be good additions. Get-R-Done.
 
Oregon and Washington should do a TCU, announce they are going to Big12 (or Big East in TCU's case) and then go to another league B1G (or Big12 in TCU's case)
 
Thiefery said:
nothing is going to happen.. BiG doesn't want to look like they were the killers of the PAC, so they won't go after oregon or udub until one of the other schools (4 corners?) bolt to the Big 12... and right now they are waiting to see if Oregon and Udub bolt first.
Click to expand...
I sincerely hope you are right, but at some point universities like Arizona will wise up and realize this is inevitable. The money just isn’t there reportedly.
 
Red_Alert said:
It's inevitable. I don't see Oregon/Washington signing a GOR to stay when the PAC 12 Network is only carried by few and they're having a tough time getting a national media rights contract worth a damn.
There's not a media company gonna put their dicks on the table and pay good dividends without a long term GOR. Oregon/Washington will take a reduced share to join the Big 10 (5 years?), but Nebraska did similar and it's now paying off in security alone.
As others have said the USC/UCLA move effectively killed the PAC and any decent media deal. There's good history between the Big 10 and USC, UCLA, Washington, but not so much Oregon. Oregon's come to light the last 20 years or so and they don't appear to be going away. They recruit well and invest in their program.
The CFP took the shine outta the (Grand Daddy) Rose Bowl anyway. Actually the Bowl Alliance, Bowl Coalition, and BCS did. It's just a matter of cleaning up the scraps. Oregon/Washington are now the best available economically outside of Notre Dame and a few ACC teams that are locked up until 2036. Washington/Oregon at least care about football. They'll be good additions. Get-R-Done.
Click to expand...
I’d argue that Clemson, FSU are better economic draws and UNC and Miami on the same tier.

Problem is no ACC team is available until 2036.

The other issue is if the B1G adds more PAC teams from a numbers perspective it locks them out from adding ACC schools when the time comes. There is only so many teams you can add before it doesn’t make sense.

Granted they seem to be determined to add at least two more PAC teams and may need to for logistics but past that it makes no sense especially if you want the door open for ND.
 
Thiefery said:
nothing is going to happen.. BiG doesn't want to look like they were the killers of the PAC, so they won't go after oregon or udub until one of the other schools (4 corners?) bolt to the Big 12... and right now they are waiting to see if Oregon and Udub bolt first.
Click to expand...
Since when does one conference give a shit about what it does to another conference when inviting new members? As long as the money rolls in, it is "fuck 'em and feed 'em rocks".
 
Wild Turkey said:
I’d argue that Clemson, FSU are better economic draws and UNC and Miami on the same tier.

Problem is no ACC team is available until 2036.

The other issue is if the B1G adds more PAC teams from a numbers perspective it locks them out from adding ACC schools when the time comes. There is only so many teams you can add before it doesn’t make sense.

Granted they seem to be determined to add at least two more PAC teams and may need to for logistics but past that it makes no sense especially if you want the door open for ND.
Click to expand...

It actually makes more sense when moving to a 12 team playoff.
The media rights deals are for the regular season and CCG. They're fluid, hence future payouts always being projected. More people will be watching those regular season games for playoff implications. Oregon beat #3 Ohio St (11-2) in Columbus in 2021 before they ultimately crashed and burned to an early Thanksgiving Vacation to finish (10-4).

Why would 20 (ND +1 ACC) be any different than 18 (USC/UCLA/Washington/Oregon)?
East and West Divisions of 10 teams who only play the round robin 9 other teams in their Division + 3 OOC. Then an East vs West CCG that would not be a rematch of a regular season game.

Washington and Oregon's problem is they don't have much to bargain with other than both having good 2022 seasons. They're not TX/OU caliber brands so it's not like the SEC wants them. There's at least a PAC/Big 10 (Rose Bowl) legacy there for Midwestern eyeballs and the Big 10 can very likely get them at a reduced rate for 5 years or better.

They're stuck between a rock and a hard place in a PAC that's already had an arm and a leg cut off.

1) Stay in PAC and sign a new multi-year GOR that no major media rights company seems to stepping up to the plate for. Any expansion for the PAC will be G5 at best.
2) Go to the Big 12 and make $31 million/yr from tier 1.
3) Go to the Big 10 at a reduced rate (say $45 - $50 million).
 
Red_Alert said:
It actually makes more sense when moving to a 12 team playoff.
The media rights deals are for the regular season and CCG. They're fluid, hence future payouts always being projected. More people will be watching those regular season games for playoff implications. Oregon beat #3 Ohio St (11-2) in Columbus in 2021 before they ultimately crashed and burned to an early Thanksgiving Vacation to finish (10-4).

Why would 20 (ND +1 ACC) be any different than 18 (USC/UCLA/Washington/Oregon)?
East and West Divisions of 10 teams who only play the round robin 9 other teams in their Division + 3 OOC. Then an East vs West CCG that would not be a rematch of a regular season game.

Washington and Oregon's problem is they don't have much to bargain with other than both having good 2022 seasons. They're not TX/OU caliber brands so it's not like the SEC wants them. There's at least a PAC/Big 10 (Rose Bowl) legacy there for Midwestern eyeballs and the Big 10 can very likely get them at a reduced rate for 5 years or better.

They're stuck between a rock and a hard place in a PAC that's already had an arm and a leg cut off.

1) Stay in PAC and sign a new multi-year GOR that no major media rights company seems to stepping up to the plate for. Any expansion for the PAC will be G5 at best.
2) Go to the Big 12 and make $31 million/yr from tier 1.
3) Go to the Big 10 at a reduced rate (say $45 - $50 million).
Click to expand...
They’d probably be willing to take less than Big 12’s $31 million just to get their feet in the door to the B1G.
 
Deep Creek said:
They’d probably be willing to take less than Big 12’s $31 million just to get their feet in the door to the B1G.
Click to expand...

You could be close.

Nebraska's reduced rate of $15 million in 2013 was 60% of the Big 10's $25 million payout.. However, Nebraska was a blueblood and had been winning 9 or 10 games in each of the 4 years prior to joining in 2011. Oregon's been fairly consistent, but Washington was just (4-8) in 2021.

Nebraska's Big 10 payout increased year to year, but didn't get to Full Share until 2017. It was worth the hit for long term stability and economics.
Washington and Oregon will likely be a package deal. i.e. Their reduced rates will be equal to each other.

If they're lucky enough to get the same deal as Nebraska, then 60% of 2022's $55 million payout would be $33 million.
 
Red_Alert said:
You could be close.

Nebraska's reduced rate of $15 million in 2013 was 60% of the Big 10's $25 million payout.. However, Nebraska was a blueblood and had been winning 9 or 10 games in each of the 4 years prior to joining in 2011. Oregon's been fairly consistent, but Washington was just (4-8) in 2021.

Nebraska's Big 10 payout increased year to year, but didn't get to Full Share until 2017. It was worth the hit for long term stability and economics.
Washington and Oregon will likely be a package deal. i.e. Their reduced rates will be equal to each other.

If they're lucky enough to get the same deal as Nebraska, then 60% of 2022's $55 million payout would be $33 million.
Click to expand...
They’d probably take 40% just to get in.
 
Red_Alert said:
FBS football rankings by wins.

Washington #18
Oregon #34
Click to expand...
Thats all time tho. does it matter? yes. but so does recent, as you mentioned in prior post.
over last 5 seasons oregon is #10 in wins. UW #29
over 10 years Oregon is #11 UW is 19
over last 20 years Oregon is #9 UW is #64
 
Red_Alert said:
1) Stay in PAC and sign a new multi-year GOR that no major media rights company seems to stepping up to the plate for. Any expansion for the PAC will be G5 at best.
2) Go to the Big 12 and make $31 million/yr from tier 1.
3) Go to the Big 10 at a reduced rate (say $45 - $50 million).
Click to expand...
lol bro 31 mil is for all THREE tier rights

Also FOX and ESPN are still talking to the PAC..only reason is that the PAC knows the 45-50 mil asking price is a smokers dream.. at 28mil, they are listening
 
Red_Alert said:
It actually makes more sense when moving to a 12 team playoff.
The media rights deals are for the regular season and CCG. They're fluid, hence future payouts always being projected. More people will be watching those regular season games for playoff implications. Oregon beat #3 Ohio St (11-2) in Columbus in 2021 before they ultimately crashed and burned to an early Thanksgiving Vacation to finish (10-4).

Why would 20 (ND +1 ACC) be any different than 18 (USC/UCLA/Washington/Oregon)?
East and West Divisions of 10 teams who only play the round robin 9 other teams in their Division + 3 OOC. Then an East vs West CCG that would not be a rematch of a regular season game.

Washington and Oregon's problem is they don't have much to bargain with other than both having good 2022 seasons. They're not TX/OU caliber brands so it's not like the SEC wants them. There's at least a PAC/Big 10 (Rose Bowl) legacy there for Midwestern eyeballs and the Big 10 can very likely get them at a reduced rate for 5 years or better.

They're stuck between a rock and a hard place in a PAC that's already had an arm and a leg cut off.

1) Stay in PAC and sign a new multi-year GOR that no major media rights company seems to stepping up to the plate for. Any expansion for the PAC will be G5 at best.
2) Go to the Big 12 and make $31 million/yr from tier 1.
3) Go to the Big 10 at a reduced rate (say $45 - $50 million).
Click to expand...

In addition to the factors you listed, the Geographic isolation doesn't help their case. A lot of travel for any league to get to both schools.
 
Thiefery said:
lol bro 31 mil is for all THREE tier rights

Also FOX and ESPN are still talking to the PAC..only reason is that the PAC knows the 45-50 mil asking price is a smokers dream.. at 28mil, they are listening
Click to expand...
isnt that standard negotiating tactic if i want 30 im asking for 45
 
Red_Alert said:
It actually makes more sense when moving to a 12 team playoff.
The media rights deals are for the regular season and CCG. They're fluid, hence future payouts always being projected. More people will be watching those regular season games for playoff implications. Oregon beat #3 Ohio St (11-2) in Columbus in 2021 before they ultimately crashed and burned to an early Thanksgiving Vacation to finish (10-4).

Why would 20 (ND +1 ACC) be any different than 18 (USC/UCLA/Washington/Oregon)?
East and West Divisions of 10 teams who only play the round robin 9 other teams in their Division + 3 OOC. Then an East vs West CCG that would not be a rematch of a regular season game.

Washington and Oregon's problem is they don't have much to bargain with other than both having good 2022 seasons. They're not TX/OU caliber brands so it's not like the SEC wants them. There's at least a PAC/Big 10 (Rose Bowl) legacy there for Midwestern eyeballs and the Big 10 can very likely get them at a reduced rate for 5 years or better.

They're stuck between a rock and a hard place in a PAC that's already had an arm and a leg cut off.

1) Stay in PAC and sign a new multi-year GOR that no major media rights company seems to stepping up to the plate for. Any expansion for the PAC will be G5 at best.
2) Go to the Big 12 and make $31 million/yr from tier 1.
3) Go to the Big 10 at a reduced rate (say $45 - $50 million).
Click to expand...
That’s actually a good point you reminded me of. If these playoff payouts are huge, it could be of benefit to add programs that have a chance to consistently compete for a spot in the 12 regardless of if they take a small piece of the regular season pie away from others when added.
 
ralphiewvu said:
That’s actually a good point you reminded me of. If these playoff payouts are huge, it could be of benefit to add programs that have a chance to consistently compete for a spot in the 12 regardless of if they take a small piece of the regular season pie away from others when added.
Click to expand...
but then would they change the "top 6 conference champs" thing or no. because if they keep it seems like staying in the Pac wouldnt be horrible as champ likely makes that top 6.
 
OlyDuck said:
isnt that standard negotiating tactic if i want 30 im asking for 45
Click to expand...
when they started that.. ESPN and FOX laughed and let them go to market.. and we are still here.. CW and all lol
 
OlyDuck said:
but then would they change the "top 6 conference champs" thing or no. because if they keep it seems like staying in the Pac wouldnt be horrible as champ likely makes that top 6.
Click to expand...
Yeah they’d have to. The SEC and B1G wouldn’t be for having a G5 heavy PAC get an auto or another G5 taking the PACs place if it imploded.

But getting into the B1G would still yield Oregon more money then staying in the PAC.
 
ralphiewvu said:
That’s actually a good point you reminded me of. If these playoff payouts are huge, it could be of benefit to add programs that have a chance to consistently compete for a spot in the 12 regardless of if they take a small piece of the regular season pie away from others when added.
Click to expand...
From a CFB economics perspective, this is correct. The payout per team is going to go through the roof in 2026. That's why you see the SEC and B1G numbers go through the roof that year. They both landed great TV deals, but with 12 teams an an estimated $1.8 billion CFP payout per year, getting into the 12 is going to be huge. Why the SEC edges ahead of the B1G who has the bigger TV contract for now is because you will also get paid for going deep in the CFP. Advantage SEC.

It's why adding Ore may make sense, but not Washington or any of the other Cali schools. It's why OU and TX were so valuable - OU because they have been there, and TX who should.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top