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Life is Good is out, off the Derby trail.
Road to the Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter phillyphilly
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I really should have had that trifecta as I had HRC as my next best and loved O Besos as a longshot...but keying Mandaloun on top killed me. Oh well.
Mandaloun got a horrible trip. The jockey used him up to get good position going into the first turn and he still ended up 3-4 wide. After that, I think he just got tired.
I kept Run Classic in my bet but a horse he ran against last time was on the undercard and looked awful so I had my doubts about him.
Luckily I had the late pick 4 and hit a decent pick 3 earlier in the day so my day was pretty good.
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Yep. A shame but best for the horse. Concert Tour and Essential Quality now considered the two co-favorites.
Yes, I would certainly have those two at the top. Second tier grouping?? IMO; Greatest Honour, and maybe HRC and Helium. One to watch is Prevalence. Need to see what race they put him in.
Sorry for the bad advice on Run Classic!!
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I really don’t think Prevalence is any good.
Helium isn’t running again until the Derby so I’m out on him.
Hot Rod Charlie posted a 99 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby so he’s a definite player. Medina Spirit is one to watch out for now that Life Is Good is gone in California. He will probably win the Santa Anita Derby.
For the final futures pool next weekend, I’d look ahead to the April prep races and see who you think can upset and maybe go with one of them. If a horse like Dream Shake is 60/1 or higher, I’ll probably bet on him. If not, I may sit it out.
I’ll likely be firing on Saturday for the FL Derby. Greatest Honour looks strong but there are a couple horses in that race that interest me (particularly Known Agenda and Soup and Sandwich.) I’ll have to take a look at the PPs and see.
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This list is
This list is a month old but not looking too bad. #3 is out. #4 and #7 beaten pretty well.
Yeah, the FL Derby will be a good one. I want to see Prevalence race against higher rated horses before I'm on board with him. Just one to look at to see if he can be added to mid level mix.
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Yeah. I'm keeping an eye on him. Just not sold. I think he's been a bit overhyped.
Speaking of hyped up, I forgot about Collaborate. He's running in the Florida Derby, I think. He's gigantic.
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Here's an updated list of my top Derby horses as of today.
1. Concert Tour
2. Essential Quality
3. Medina Spirit
4. Hot Rod Charlie
5. Dream Shake
6. Highly Motivated
7. Weyburn
8. Greatest Honour
9. Mandaloun
10. Soup and Sandwich
Some new names to the list. I still like Dream Shake, although he will have to run better in his second stakes race. Certainly possible. I probably shouldn't have Highly Motivated so high but I really do like that horse and think he'll be much better in his 2nd off the layoff. Weyburn should love more distance but his connections may not even shoot for the Kentucky Derby so we'll see. Greatest Honour needs to run faster in the Florida Derby for me to keep him as a Derby contender. He's going to have some legitimate threats in this one with Joseph's Collaborate, Casse's Soup and Sandwich, and possibly others. Keeping Mandaloun in the top 10. He's technically in the gate and I thought he just got a really terrible ride/trip in the Louisiana Derby. He could be one of those horses that actually benefits from the 6 weeks rest between his last race and the first Saturday in May.
Not included yet: Baffert's nice looking maiden breaker Triple Tap has gotten a lot of hype. I can't endorse him yet, even if he is the half-brother to the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and full brother to the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet Stakes winner Chasing Yesterday. I'm similarly holding back on Collaborate who would likely rank as #11 or #12 on my list with Midnight Bourbon.
1. Concert Tour
2. Essential Quality
3. Medina Spirit
4. Hot Rod Charlie
5. Dream Shake
6. Highly Motivated
7. Weyburn
8. Greatest Honour
9. Mandaloun
10. Soup and Sandwich
Some new names to the list. I still like Dream Shake, although he will have to run better in his second stakes race. Certainly possible. I probably shouldn't have Highly Motivated so high but I really do like that horse and think he'll be much better in his 2nd off the layoff. Weyburn should love more distance but his connections may not even shoot for the Kentucky Derby so we'll see. Greatest Honour needs to run faster in the Florida Derby for me to keep him as a Derby contender. He's going to have some legitimate threats in this one with Joseph's Collaborate, Casse's Soup and Sandwich, and possibly others. Keeping Mandaloun in the top 10. He's technically in the gate and I thought he just got a really terrible ride/trip in the Louisiana Derby. He could be one of those horses that actually benefits from the 6 weeks rest between his last race and the first Saturday in May.
Not included yet: Baffert's nice looking maiden breaker Triple Tap has gotten a lot of hype. I can't endorse him yet, even if he is the half-brother to the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and full brother to the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet Stakes winner Chasing Yesterday. I'm similarly holding back on Collaborate who would likely rank as #11 or #12 on my list with Midnight Bourbon.
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Medina Spirit reportedly had a procedure a few weeks ago to correct a trapped epiglottis, which they found following the San Felipe. He ran very well in that race so interesting to see he was dealing with a breathing issue.
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The field is set for the Florida Derby. Greatest Honour is a very nice horse, and I'm not sure about this field, but 6/5 is totally unappealing to me.
Yea, usually I'll do a small tri or super box with favorite and some mid odd horses and hope a 5-1 to 10-1 hits the wire and favorite comes in second. I'm not much of a fan of making bet with favorite with a small return, more like to do a smaller bet with mid/higher odd and hope for bigger return, but that is less likely odds of hitting. In a race like this a would maybe go with a #7 and mid range tri or super box and hope for upset, then maybe put #8, #9 or #10 on top with #5, #7 #10 type of tri or super to try to get a payday.The field is set for the Florida Derby. Greatest Honour is a very nice horse, and I'm not sure about this field, but 6/5 is totally unappealing to me.
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I like to make horizontal wagers (pick 4s and so on), so I may single him there. Not sure.
I might key him in a trifecta or superfecta. I have to look at the race. Spielberg and Collaborate look like they have a chance to win.
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So I’ve looked at the race and Spielberg is my top pick. If he is anywhere near 4/1 then I am hammering him.
I do like to CA horse connection pointed out awhile back. Spielberg ran better than expected in the SW Stakes.
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Yeah. I’m actually having second thoughts. Have to look at this more.
5,10/5,7,10/5,7,10
7-9/5,7-10/5,7-10/5,7-10
5,7,10/5,7,10/5,7,10/1,2,5-11
7-9/5,7-10/5,7-10/5,7-10
5,7,10/5,7,10/5,7,10/1,2,5-11
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Known Agenda really put his mark on the derby trail with the Florida Derby win and he has a legit shot at winning the Derby. That said, the Florida horses just seem pretty weak this year, which is why a horse like Greatest Honour has been able to dominate them so far. So it's hard to know where Known Agenda ends up and how he'll move forward after that race.
Saturday will be a huge day for Derby preps with the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita.
At first glance, I'm thinking Highly Motivated upsets Essential Quality in the Blue Grass and Medina Spirit ends up the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby (and probably wins). Going to have to take a closer look at those races. Not sure about the Wood at this point.
Saturday will be a huge day for Derby preps with the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita.
At first glance, I'm thinking Highly Motivated upsets Essential Quality in the Blue Grass and Medina Spirit ends up the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby (and probably wins). Going to have to take a closer look at those races. Not sure about the Wood at this point.
Let me know what you see and like. The Wood is by far the toughest one to call, The SA Derby looks to be all Medina Spirit, Roman Centurian almost had him in the RB Lewis, didn't run well in the San Felipe. I'm interested in Law Professor as well as possible mix on card. The Blue Grass is all EQ, I think the big question is can HM push on the final stretch, Interested in Hush the Storm and Untreated as possible plays with good odds in tri or super mix.
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I haven't looked closely at these races yet.
My initial thought for the Blue Grass is to bet Highly Motivated and hope he jumps out front and just wires them. But, he's going two turns for the first time and as the logical rival for Essential Quality, I don't expect to get good odds on him. He's 7/2 morning line but I suspect he'll go off around 5/2. I could be wrong. If he's 7/2 or higher, that's probably a fair price for him, though I'd want closer to 5/1 and I know there's no way I'll get that.
The play there may be to key EQ on top and hope that HM can't go two turns. If that's the case, then you want to load up on some possible longshots underneath. EQ trifecta keyed over Keepmeinmind, Hush of a Storm, Hidden Stash, and Leblon. I haven't looked closely at the race so I can't say whether to add a horse like Sitting on Go or some of the others. So, even though I like Highly Motivated quite a bit, I may actually fade him and try to hit a big trifecta. I have to really take a look at Pletcher's new shooter. Ran a big race breaking his maiden at Tampa.
Agreed about the SA Derby. I love Dream Shake but I think they're pushing him too much. It would have been better for him to run in an easier race last time out and then build up for the SA Derby. But we'll see. Maybe he surprises. There are a few horses in that field with some really nice pedigrees so I'll have to take a look...but not sure anyone is beating Medina Spirit.
For the Wood, I'm all about Weyburn. He has the pedigree to go the distance and he was very much game last time out in his first race off the layoff when he won the Gotham. I'm going to go back and watch that race and see how he galloped out and check his works and stuff, but if I had to pick today, he's my pick for that race. I'm hoping Prevalence and Crowded Trade take a ton of money and I can get solid odds on Weyburn. Again, the horses that concern me are Pletcher's new shooters. They'll warrant another look before I make my bet.
I know you've mentioned Prevalence before but I am very much against him at what will likely be short odds. It's not that I dislike the horse but I think he's being overhyped. Just look at Collaborate and we saw how that turned out.