Road to the Kentucky Derby

phillyphilly said:
I haven't looked closely at these races yet.

My initial thought for the Blue Grass is to bet Highly Motivated and hope he jumps out front and just wires them. But, he's going two turns for the first time and as the logical rival for Essential Quality, I don't expect to get good odds on him. He's 7/2 morning line but I suspect he'll go off around 5/2. I could be wrong. If he's 7/2 or higher, that's probably a fair price for him, though I'd want closer to 5/1 and I know there's no way I'll get that.

The play there may be to key EQ on top and hope that HM can't go two turns. If that's the case, then you want to load up on some possible longshots underneath. EQ trifecta keyed over Keepmeinmind, Hush of a Storm, Hidden Stash, and Leblon. I haven't looked closely at the race so I can't say whether to add a horse like Sitting on Go or some of the others. So, even though I like Highly Motivated quite a bit, I may actually fade him and try to hit a big trifecta. I have to really take a look at Pletcher's new shooter. Ran a big race breaking his maiden at Tampa.

Agreed about the SA Derby. I love Dream Shake but I think they're pushing him too much. It would have been better for him to run in an easier race last time out and then build up for the SA Derby. But we'll see. Maybe he surprises. There are a few horses in that field with some really nice pedigrees so I'll have to take a look...but not sure anyone is beating Medina Spirit.

For the Wood, I'm all about Weyburn. He has the pedigree to go the distance and he was very much game last time out in his first race off the layoff when he won the Gotham. I'm going to go back and watch that race and see how he galloped out and check his works and stuff, but if I had to pick today, he's my pick for that race. I'm hoping Prevalence and Crowded Trade take a ton of money and I can get solid odds on Weyburn. Again, the horses that concern me are Pletcher's new shooters. They'll warrant another look before I make my bet.

I know you've mentioned Prevalence before but I am very much against him at what will likely be short odds. It's not that I dislike the horse but I think he's being overhyped. Just look at Collaborate and we saw how that turned out.
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I like the input, if you take a closer look, let me know what you see.
 
psaboy said:
I like the input, if you take a closer look, let me know what you see.
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So I did go back and watch the gallop out for the Gotham and was surprised to see that Weyburn got passed easily after the wire by Crowded Trade and Highly Motivated. That moves Highly Motivated up for me for the Blue Grass, so forget about my thought about fading him.

I'm going to bet Highly Motivated to win and I might also key a trifecta or superfecta with Highly Motivated over Essential Quality over a few horses. I have to see what the $0.50 superfecta would come out to but I may shoot for that. That looks like a two horse race. I don't see anyone else winning that one. You might be tempted to bet Pletcher's Untreated...but Pletcher generally has not done well jumping horses directly into graded stakes off maiden wins.

Because of that gallop out and because the pace looks like it could heat up in the Wood, I'm not going to bet Weyburn - outside of his debut where he finished 5th, he's never run from off the pace so he may be a horse that needs to be up front. If that's the case, I don't want him here as you'll have a handful of horses potentially vying for the lead early - Weyburn, Market Maven, Brooklyn Strong, and Prevalence and Candy Man Rocket could be in the mix. I'll take a look at the Timeform pace projector but if it's a projected hot pace, as I suspect, I'm off Weyburn. That sort of leaves me by default to the Brown horses, Crowded Trade and Risk Taking, and I prefer Crowded Trade though both could get favorable pace setups. I don't dislike Pletcher's horse Dynamic One...but I'll use him underneath. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Candy Man Rocket run alright. I know he won the Sam Davis at Tampa but it's possible he didn't really take to that track. This race could honestly be full of prices in the trifecta.

The obvious downside for both Crowded Trade and Highly Motivated is that neither of them have gone around two turns. I think because of the likely slow pace in the Blue Grass, I'm not super worried about Highly Motivated. Crowded Trade just seems headed in the right direction and certainly eligible to improve off the Gotham performance. So we'll see. A little riskier but I'll also get better odds on Crowded Trade.
 
Wood Memorial, thinking Risk Taking as favorite with past successes on this track, plus I like jockey Ortiz Jr. in this race. Brooklyn Strong may offer the best value and I'll look at Prevalence, Crowded Trade and Market Maven as possible add ins on tri or super. Second level Candy Man Rocket and Weyburn as long shot mixes. Weyburn and Crowded Trade have same jockey riding as they did at the Gotham, so that helps IMO. This is toughest Stakes race to call this weekend, think 3-4 can win. I'm having hard time trying to sperate Crowded Trade and Weyburn from each other and was the Gotham a fluke or are they for real?
 
psaboy said:
Wood Memorial, thinking Risk Taking as favorite with past successes on this track, plus I like jockey Ortiz Jr. in this race. Brooklyn Strong may offer the best value and I'll look at Prevalence, Crowded Trade and Market Maven as possible add ins on tri or super. Second level Candy Man Rocket and Weyburn as long shot mixes. Weyburn and Crowded Trade have same jockey riding as they did at the Gotham, so that helps IMO. This is toughest Stakes race to call this weekend, think 3-4 can win. I'm having hard time trying to sperate Crowded Trade and Weyburn from each other and was the Gotham a fluke or are they for real?
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I think those horses are for real. Weyburn has a very nice pedigree, Crowded Trade has the look of an improving 3YO, and they beat Highly Motivated who is a pretty good horse. But we’ll see.

A couple decent prices that I like today:
Aqueduct Race 6 - #1 Mind Control 4/1
Aqueduct Race 9 - #5 The Grass Is Blue 4/1

Keeneland Race 5 - #1/1A entry - Notable Exception / Santa Cruiser 10/1
Keeneland Race 7 - #5 Attachment Rate 5/1. I also like the #4 Special Reserve 12/1.
Keeneland Race 10 - #1 Sanenus 6/1 (also like Mundaye Call at 8/1 for horizontal wagers.


Oaklawn Race 11 - #3 Sylvia Q 5/1
 
psaboy said:
Wood Memorial, thinking Risk Taking as favorite with past successes on this track, plus I like jockey Ortiz Jr. in this race. Brooklyn Strong may offer the best value and I'll look at Prevalence, Crowded Trade and Market Maven as possible add ins on tri or super. Second level Candy Man Rocket and Weyburn as long shot mixes. Weyburn and Crowded Trade have same jockey riding as they did at the Gotham, so that helps IMO. This is toughest Stakes race to call this weekend, think 3-4 can win. I'm having hard time trying to sperate Crowded Trade and Weyburn from each other and was the Gotham a fluke or are they for real?
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Also forgot to mention - Risk Taking looks good. And Brooklyn Strong ran a big race in the Remsen but I’m a little worried about the time off and this being his first off a pretty long layoff. Hard for me to endorse him but he’s capable. Just too big of a question for me to put on top.
 
phillyphilly said:
I think those horses are for real. Weyburn has a very nice pedigree, Crowded Trade has the look of an improving 3YO, and they beat Highly Motivated who is a pretty good horse. But we’ll see.

A couple decent prices that I like today:
Aqueduct Race 6 - #1 Mind Control 4/1
Aqueduct Race 9 - #5 The Grass Is Blue 4/1

Keeneland Race 5 - #1/1A entry - Notable Exception / Santa Cruiser 10/1
Keeneland Race 7 - #5 Attachment Rate 5/1. I also like the #4 Special Reserve 12/1.
Keeneland Race 10 - #1 Sanenus 6/1 (also like Mundaye Call at 8/1 for horizontal wagers.


Oaklawn Race 11 - #3 Sylvia Q 5/1
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I just got on, so I'll look at your plays. Thanks.
 
I do like #5 @ Auqeduct in race 9 #6 looks like good horse as well. What is your opinion on a horse that goes from turf to dirt? I've been told turf is easier surface to run one vs turf and horse that switches to dirt from turf in recent races may not be able to adjust. Just wondering what your input is on that, and even the opposite, dirt horse moving to turf?
 
psaboy said:
I do like #5 @ Auqeduct in race 9 #6 looks like good horse as well. What is your opinion on a horse that goes from turf to dirt? I've been told turf is easier surface to run one vs turf and horse that switches to dirt from turf in recent races may not be able to adjust. Just wondering what your input is on that, and even the opposite, dirt horse moving to turf?
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Late responding but it really depends. See the SA Derby. Turf horse switching to dirt and he looked great.

I generally like to look at the pedigree and see if the horse is more geared toward dirt or turf. Also to see if it’s a sprint, for example, if the horse has enough raw speed to keep up. It’s hard to handicap. Ill also try to look to see if the trainer does well switching surfaces.

I had a rough day. Highly Motivated ran well but lost. Crowded Trade ran OK but lost. None of my prices won. I hit a couple exactas here or there. Basically kept me afloat but down a little bit today.
 
phillyphilly said:
Late responding but it really depends. See the SA Derby. Turf horse switching to dirt and he looked great.

I generally like to look at the pedigree and see if the horse is more geared toward dirt or turf. Also to see if it’s a sprint, for example, if the horse has enough raw speed to keep up. It’s hard to handicap. Ill also try to look to see if the trainer does well switching surfaces.

I had a rough day. Highly Motivated ran well but lost. Crowded Trade ran OK but lost. None of my prices won. I hit a couple exactas here or there. Basically kept me afloat but down a little bit today.
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I got the tri in the blue grass, barely got my money back !! It was rough day for me as well, the 72-1 blow up at the Wood was surprising, but I guess anything is possible these days.
 
So it looks like there is a very distinct top 5 right now:

Concert Tour
Essential Quality
Rock Your World
Known Agenda
Hot Rod Charlie

Very interested to see how Concert Tour runs in the Arkansas Derby this weekend.
 
Greatest Honour has been pulled off the derby trail.
 
Arkansas Derby up this weekend. Concert Tour looks tough.
 
A few plays I’m making today:

Aqueduct Race 1
Pick 3: 5,6 / 9 / 1

Keeneland Race 4
Win bet on the 1
Double 1 / 5

Keeneland Race 5
Win bet on the 5 (won’t bet if the double is alive)

Gulfstream Race 5
Win bet on the 2
 
phillyphilly said:
A few plays I’m making today:

Aqueduct Race 1
Pick 3: 5,6 / 9 / 1

Keeneland Race 4
Win bet on the 1
Double 1 / 5

Keeneland Race 5
Win bet on the 5 (won’t bet if the double is alive)

Gulfstream Race 5
Win bet on the 2
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Hit anything? I've been off this week, heavy travels. Will be playing the Ark Derby. Concert Tour the one to beat. Caddo River probably second best, still trying to figure out the 2 and 4 horse. Let me know thoughts.
 
psaboy said:
Hit anything? I've been off this week, heavy travels. Will be playing the Ark Derby. Concert Tour the one to beat. Caddo River probably second best, still trying to figure out the 2 and 4 horse. Let me know thoughts.
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None of those bets. I did hit a nice 9/1 horse at Aqueduct that basically saved my day.

Today - playing Keeneland. Three bets.
Race 7: #7 Tobys Heart
Race 8: #3 Aloha West
Race 9: #4 Sacred Life

Arkansas Derby I may play horizontals and single Concert Tour. Take a look at the Lexington at Keeneland on Saturday. The 1 and 2 horse have real chances to win at solid odds.

I also love Juliet Foxtrot in the Jenny Wiley at 7/2.
 
1,3/6,7/6,7 - Tri @ Lex Derby
&
2,6,7,10 - Super @ Lex Derby
 
1-3, 5 Super at AR Derby & 1,3,4/2,5/2,5 Tri. Hope to hit a flyer on the tri.
 
Top 10 after the final preps

1. Rock Your World
2. Hot Rod Charlie
3. Essential Quality
4. Super Stock
5. Highly Motivated
6. Concert Tour
7. Known Agenda
8. King Fury
9. Mandaloun
10. Soup and Sandwich

Thoughts: If RYW can repeat what he did in the Santa Anita Derby, he’s the winner. Although EQ has been the most consistent, I like HRC slightly more than him and he’ll be at much higher odds. EQ is who he is. Very solid horse. I have to go back and watch the Arkansas Derby but Super Stock was close to the pace and finished much stronger than those two. Might have just been a perfect trip. The others all have big question marks at this point. It’ll be interesting to see all the jockey assignments and how these horses work leading up to the Derby. I’ll put out my picks probably Saturday morning of the derby.
 
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