I peg the AR Derby win on the move Santana made on final stretch. Took Super Stock to outside and that allowed him to pull away.
Road to the Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter phillyphilly
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Only 11 days left until the Derby. The field is shaping up and it could be a REALLY good betting race.
The likely favorite - Essential Quality - has done nothing wrong in his career and has a perfect 5-for-5 record. The choices under him all have some great potential but also some question marks. This could be a good year to bet a longshot as there are a few horses who will be big odds and have a very good shot at making it into the money.
The likely favorite - Essential Quality - has done nothing wrong in his career and has a perfect 5-for-5 record. The choices under him all have some great potential but also some question marks. This could be a good year to bet a longshot as there are a few horses who will be big odds and have a very good shot at making it into the money.
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I’ll probably post another one of these before Derby Day but here’s my current top 10:
1. Hot Rod Charlie
2. Essential Quality
3. Rock Your World
4. Medina Spirit
5. O Besos
6. Highly Motivated
7. Known Agenda
8. Super Stock
9. King Fury
10. Mandaloun
1. Hot Rod Charlie
2. Essential Quality
3. Rock Your World
4. Medina Spirit
5. O Besos
6. Highly Motivated
7. Known Agenda
8. Super Stock
9. King Fury
10. Mandaloun
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I’ve done a lot of studying and I’ve got some major adjustments to the rankings. Stay tuned. I’ll post next week some time.
Yes, let me know what you see. I'll do likewise, but from what I've see, you offer better insight, always like to hear what you say.
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Prior to the post position draw, here are my thoughts on the horses.
1. Known Agenda: If you go back to November 8th when Known Agenda beat Greatest Honour in a MSW race at Aqueduct, that race didn't generate high figures...but it was the only race at 9 furlongs and only race around two turns that day, so be skeptical of those figures. The runner up Greatest Honour obviously went on to win the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth before finishing 3rd in the Florida Derby. Third place won his next out, took some time off, and came back to run 2nd in the Withers. Known Agenda flopped badly in the Sam Davis...but some horses just don't like the track at Tampa Bay so I'll forgive him for that. Pletcher added blinkers for his next race, he absolutely dominated (in another race where the figures are probably off a bit) and then he came back with a very impressive win in the Florida Derby. The blinkers seem to have worked. A son of Curlin, this horse is bred to relish the added distance in the Kentucky Derby and his dam won stakes on multiple surfaces at multiple distances. If you're a believer in final fractions theory, he finished the final furlong in 12.84 seconds and final 3 furlongs in 36.74 seconds. That is a 1/2 second faster than any other horse in the race and roughly a full second faster than any horse other than Greatest Honour. Aside from the relatively low 94 Beyer figure, everything else points to him being a top contender in the Kentucky Derby and he looks to be primed to run a very big race. He's proven he can take kick back and close strong, so if he gets a good post position, I'll trust Irad to work out a good trip as he's one of the best in the game.
2. Rock Your World: There are a lot of things going against this horse. For one, he got a relatively easy lead in the Santa Anita Derby and was running on a track that seemed to favor inside runners. So it should be no surprise that he won or that he posted the only triple digit Beyer figure in this field. He will most likely not get an easy lead in the Derby, though he may be able to sit on or very close to a relatively modest pace as there isn't all that much speed with Caddo River, Concert Tour, and a few others opting to run elsewhere. The main speed rivals appear to be Soup and Sandwich (who set the pace in the Florida Derby and appears to need the lead) Medina Spirit (who intentionally held back in the Santa Anita Derby), Hot Rod Charlie (who ran his best ever race when setting the pace in the Louisiana Derby), Midnight Bourbon (who has been on or near the lead in every race this prep season though is not as fast as Rock Your World), and Manadaloun (who tried to be near the pace in the Louisiana Derby and something went wrong). Of these, I think the California horses have the best chance to survive a strong early pace. I mentioned Rock Your World's gallop out after the Santa Anita Derby before. It was very impressive and while this horse is green, he looks to have a ton of talent. The big question mark is, did he run "too big" of a race in the Santa Anita Derby and is due to bounce this Saturday? That's hard to know. It's possible that he's just that much better on the dirt. But given the lack of real speed in the race, I think it's likely that he is either on the lead or sitting right off of it going into the first turn. And since that means he'll likely get a clean trip, I think he's got a good chance to beat the others in here. Of any horse, he is the one that I'm most mixed on and have flip flopped between tossing him from my bets and putting him on top.
3. Essential Quality: You can count me as one of the people who was unimpressed with Essential Quality's win in the Blue Grass. That said, this horse has done nothing wrong and is obviously the horse to beat. Two things that I don't like about him are: (1) he might have peaked in his last two races and could be due to slightly regress; (2) he runs wide in nearly every race so if he gets a wide post position, I think he's going to be forced to go 3-4 wide around the entire track. If he draws a post position of 15-20, I would consider excluding him from my wagers on top and using him underneath only. He reminds me a bit of Game Winner as he was so good as a 2 year old and got better as a 3 year old but Game Winner was always wide and it seems like the other horses caught up to him eventually.
4. Hot Rod Charlie: Pending the post position draw, I probably won't be putting him on top of any of my bets and I might regret that. I think he is primed to have a very strong race. If you go back to his BC Juvenile, I think he could have won that race but he moved too early. He came back and almost won the Robert Lewis off a very long layoff. And then he absolutely crushed the competition in the Louisiana Derby by sending and not letting anyone by him. If you watch that race, he was hand ridden nearly the entire stretch. Toward the end, he got a couple urges from crop and actually closed fast. His final 1.5 furlongs was run in about 18.6 seconds which is very fast considering he set a pretty solid pace before that. My issue is that I think he would need to run significantly better than the Louisiana Derby in order to win this race and while that's possible, I just like the top 3 horses here better than him. But, I think he's a horse that you must include underneath. And if one of the above gets a brutally bad post position, I might switch my bets around and put HRC back on top.
5. Medina Spirit: I am probably a little higher on him than most people. While he is obviously not the best in Baffert's crop of three year olds, he might not need to be (and remember that Authentic was not considered Baffert's top 3 year old last year and that didn't stop him from winning the Kentucky Derby, BC Classic, and Horse of the Year.) He's been very consistent, finishing top 2 in every race with his only losses coming to horses that posted 100-point Beyers along the Derby trail this year. While his best so far is not good enough to win this race, you've got to wonder if Baffert will send him and hope he just works out a better trip than the competition. Note that this year the California horses have done exceptionally well and there is a possibility he runs his best race on Derby day. It's also possible that he's simply not good enough...but I think he's a horse that is a slight notch below the top 3 but given the connections you have to respect and probably include in all exotic bets.
6. O Besos: I'm not sure what this horse's odds will be as he seems to be every expert's pick to bust into the exotics. And I have to agree with those experts that it would be unwise to exclude him. He experienced a very wide trip in the Risen Star and I loved him in the Louisiana Derby as an exotics play. That big late run was no surprise to me. His chances boil down to what kind of trip you see him getting. If he's wide, I don't think he'll be good enough to get into the money here but if he can work out trip way off the pace near the rail then he could pick off all the fading frontrunners (I'll get to those) coming down the stretch. Don't leave this horse off your tickets.
7. Dynamic One: Good pedigree and an improving horse from Pletcher, this one interests me A LOT as a possible long shot. Put him on your list of horses for the Belmont as I think Pletcher will run him there, pending how he comes out of the Derby. While I probably won't put him on top and I really don't trust Jose Ortiz not to do something stupid, he seems to be coming on at the right time. I think the loss to his stablemate Bourbonic in the Wood was a bit of a fluke as Dynamic One had a much worse trip while Bourbonic was able to ride the rail the entire race and then got a clear lane down the stretch to close. I don't think Bourbonic will get either of those in the Derby. Obviously he's only got one win to his name but he's working really well and I think will be overlooked a bit since Known Agenda is the top Pletcher horse and he got beaten by his other stablemate last time out. I believe he will be live on Derby day.
8. Highly Motivated: I really like this horse. He's fast and Chad Brown has a history of getting his horses ready to run very big races on Derby day - see Good Magic, Normandy Invasion, Practical Joke. But I worry about the distance pedigree with this one and while he could theoretically trip out and win this race, I just see so many scenarios where he runs big but another horse gets a better trip. If you watch the Blue Grass, he switches to his left lead late in the stretch. I'm impressed that, even though he probably doesn't prefer to be on the lead and was probably tiring, he gutted it out and gave Essential Quality all he had. The questions are: (1) can he get the distance?; (2) he's obviously a battler but did the Blue Grass take anything out of him? Like Rock Your World, this is one of those horses who I struggle with including in my bets or tossing completely. I think he will be infinitely better at shorter distances but he might be good enough to pick up a piece here, depending on the trip.
9. King Fury: Another horse that I am mixed on but willing to take a shot on at long odds. King Fury absolutely romped in the Lexington, closing strongly into a fast pace and winning by nearly 3 lengths. That field was not particularly tough but he was coming off a 5+ month layoff and McPeek is not known for firing off long layoffs like that. I think his 2 year old campaign overworked him and he needed the rest. I question whether they should run him back in 3 weeks but his pedigree is top notch and McPeek likes to run his horses, for better or worse. At his best, he absolutely belongs with these other horses, I just worry that they're biting off too much too soon. But we'll see and at odds of 25/1 or higher, I could certainly back worse horses.
10. Super Stock: I don't particularly love this horses and I'm curious to see that Santana will ride Super Stock when Asmussen normally gives his best horse to him. Super Stock is owned by the Asmussens so maybe there is more at play here. Mike Smith gets the ride on Midnight Bourbon which will probably draw more money on him than is warranted. I think Midnight Bourbon is the only non-California horse that may be able to keep up with a quick early pace. But I think he will be pace compromised and suspect that Mike Smith will not give him the best ride here...but you never know. Super Stock could get a similar set up as the Arkansas Derby with a quick pace and maybe he is able to tuck in and get a nice rail trip and finish off strongly. I'm not high on either horse but think they warrant some consideration.
Horses I don't like and why:
Soup and Sandwich: This horse is green with only 3 starts and while he ran well in the Florida Derby, it was maybe too good. The other thing is that he does not look like the type to settle and will probably want to be involved with the early pace, which I think will ultimately compromise him and he'll fade in the end.
Mandaloun: He seems to like a wide trip and has no excuse for his brutally bad performance in the Louisiana Derby. He's working really well in the morning but he's just not the type of horse I want to put money on.
Brooklyn Strong: Self explanatory.
Like the King: I just don't think he's good enough.
Bourbonic: I think he got a dream setup in the Wood Memorial. I don't see it happening again and he'll probably get overbet as one of the few closers.
Sainthood: He's a tough horse but I just think outclassed here.
Keepmeinmind: Just hasn't shown enough at 3 for me to include in my bets.
Horses I might consider including in exotic bets:
Midnight Bourbon: I think he'll be pace compromised and don't trust Smith to give him a good ride...but he could hang on.
Hidden Stash: Seems to be an improving young horse but still might not be good enough to break into the money here.
Helium: I really hate that they took 8 weeks off following the Tampa Bay Derby. If they had run him back in one of the major preps or even in an allowance race, I'd feel a lot better about him. But he had such a wide trip in the TB Derby and still won despite a move mid-race around the turn, that showed me that he's a pretty good horse so maybe he can run well enough to break into the top 3-4.
1. Known Agenda: If you go back to November 8th when Known Agenda beat Greatest Honour in a MSW race at Aqueduct, that race didn't generate high figures...but it was the only race at 9 furlongs and only race around two turns that day, so be skeptical of those figures. The runner up Greatest Honour obviously went on to win the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth before finishing 3rd in the Florida Derby. Third place won his next out, took some time off, and came back to run 2nd in the Withers. Known Agenda flopped badly in the Sam Davis...but some horses just don't like the track at Tampa Bay so I'll forgive him for that. Pletcher added blinkers for his next race, he absolutely dominated (in another race where the figures are probably off a bit) and then he came back with a very impressive win in the Florida Derby. The blinkers seem to have worked. A son of Curlin, this horse is bred to relish the added distance in the Kentucky Derby and his dam won stakes on multiple surfaces at multiple distances. If you're a believer in final fractions theory, he finished the final furlong in 12.84 seconds and final 3 furlongs in 36.74 seconds. That is a 1/2 second faster than any other horse in the race and roughly a full second faster than any horse other than Greatest Honour. Aside from the relatively low 94 Beyer figure, everything else points to him being a top contender in the Kentucky Derby and he looks to be primed to run a very big race. He's proven he can take kick back and close strong, so if he gets a good post position, I'll trust Irad to work out a good trip as he's one of the best in the game.
2. Rock Your World: There are a lot of things going against this horse. For one, he got a relatively easy lead in the Santa Anita Derby and was running on a track that seemed to favor inside runners. So it should be no surprise that he won or that he posted the only triple digit Beyer figure in this field. He will most likely not get an easy lead in the Derby, though he may be able to sit on or very close to a relatively modest pace as there isn't all that much speed with Caddo River, Concert Tour, and a few others opting to run elsewhere. The main speed rivals appear to be Soup and Sandwich (who set the pace in the Florida Derby and appears to need the lead) Medina Spirit (who intentionally held back in the Santa Anita Derby), Hot Rod Charlie (who ran his best ever race when setting the pace in the Louisiana Derby), Midnight Bourbon (who has been on or near the lead in every race this prep season though is not as fast as Rock Your World), and Manadaloun (who tried to be near the pace in the Louisiana Derby and something went wrong). Of these, I think the California horses have the best chance to survive a strong early pace. I mentioned Rock Your World's gallop out after the Santa Anita Derby before. It was very impressive and while this horse is green, he looks to have a ton of talent. The big question mark is, did he run "too big" of a race in the Santa Anita Derby and is due to bounce this Saturday? That's hard to know. It's possible that he's just that much better on the dirt. But given the lack of real speed in the race, I think it's likely that he is either on the lead or sitting right off of it going into the first turn. And since that means he'll likely get a clean trip, I think he's got a good chance to beat the others in here. Of any horse, he is the one that I'm most mixed on and have flip flopped between tossing him from my bets and putting him on top.
3. Essential Quality: You can count me as one of the people who was unimpressed with Essential Quality's win in the Blue Grass. That said, this horse has done nothing wrong and is obviously the horse to beat. Two things that I don't like about him are: (1) he might have peaked in his last two races and could be due to slightly regress; (2) he runs wide in nearly every race so if he gets a wide post position, I think he's going to be forced to go 3-4 wide around the entire track. If he draws a post position of 15-20, I would consider excluding him from my wagers on top and using him underneath only. He reminds me a bit of Game Winner as he was so good as a 2 year old and got better as a 3 year old but Game Winner was always wide and it seems like the other horses caught up to him eventually.
4. Hot Rod Charlie: Pending the post position draw, I probably won't be putting him on top of any of my bets and I might regret that. I think he is primed to have a very strong race. If you go back to his BC Juvenile, I think he could have won that race but he moved too early. He came back and almost won the Robert Lewis off a very long layoff. And then he absolutely crushed the competition in the Louisiana Derby by sending and not letting anyone by him. If you watch that race, he was hand ridden nearly the entire stretch. Toward the end, he got a couple urges from crop and actually closed fast. His final 1.5 furlongs was run in about 18.6 seconds which is very fast considering he set a pretty solid pace before that. My issue is that I think he would need to run significantly better than the Louisiana Derby in order to win this race and while that's possible, I just like the top 3 horses here better than him. But, I think he's a horse that you must include underneath. And if one of the above gets a brutally bad post position, I might switch my bets around and put HRC back on top.
5. Medina Spirit: I am probably a little higher on him than most people. While he is obviously not the best in Baffert's crop of three year olds, he might not need to be (and remember that Authentic was not considered Baffert's top 3 year old last year and that didn't stop him from winning the Kentucky Derby, BC Classic, and Horse of the Year.) He's been very consistent, finishing top 2 in every race with his only losses coming to horses that posted 100-point Beyers along the Derby trail this year. While his best so far is not good enough to win this race, you've got to wonder if Baffert will send him and hope he just works out a better trip than the competition. Note that this year the California horses have done exceptionally well and there is a possibility he runs his best race on Derby day. It's also possible that he's simply not good enough...but I think he's a horse that is a slight notch below the top 3 but given the connections you have to respect and probably include in all exotic bets.
6. O Besos: I'm not sure what this horse's odds will be as he seems to be every expert's pick to bust into the exotics. And I have to agree with those experts that it would be unwise to exclude him. He experienced a very wide trip in the Risen Star and I loved him in the Louisiana Derby as an exotics play. That big late run was no surprise to me. His chances boil down to what kind of trip you see him getting. If he's wide, I don't think he'll be good enough to get into the money here but if he can work out trip way off the pace near the rail then he could pick off all the fading frontrunners (I'll get to those) coming down the stretch. Don't leave this horse off your tickets.
7. Dynamic One: Good pedigree and an improving horse from Pletcher, this one interests me A LOT as a possible long shot. Put him on your list of horses for the Belmont as I think Pletcher will run him there, pending how he comes out of the Derby. While I probably won't put him on top and I really don't trust Jose Ortiz not to do something stupid, he seems to be coming on at the right time. I think the loss to his stablemate Bourbonic in the Wood was a bit of a fluke as Dynamic One had a much worse trip while Bourbonic was able to ride the rail the entire race and then got a clear lane down the stretch to close. I don't think Bourbonic will get either of those in the Derby. Obviously he's only got one win to his name but he's working really well and I think will be overlooked a bit since Known Agenda is the top Pletcher horse and he got beaten by his other stablemate last time out. I believe he will be live on Derby day.
8. Highly Motivated: I really like this horse. He's fast and Chad Brown has a history of getting his horses ready to run very big races on Derby day - see Good Magic, Normandy Invasion, Practical Joke. But I worry about the distance pedigree with this one and while he could theoretically trip out and win this race, I just see so many scenarios where he runs big but another horse gets a better trip. If you watch the Blue Grass, he switches to his left lead late in the stretch. I'm impressed that, even though he probably doesn't prefer to be on the lead and was probably tiring, he gutted it out and gave Essential Quality all he had. The questions are: (1) can he get the distance?; (2) he's obviously a battler but did the Blue Grass take anything out of him? Like Rock Your World, this is one of those horses who I struggle with including in my bets or tossing completely. I think he will be infinitely better at shorter distances but he might be good enough to pick up a piece here, depending on the trip.
9. King Fury: Another horse that I am mixed on but willing to take a shot on at long odds. King Fury absolutely romped in the Lexington, closing strongly into a fast pace and winning by nearly 3 lengths. That field was not particularly tough but he was coming off a 5+ month layoff and McPeek is not known for firing off long layoffs like that. I think his 2 year old campaign overworked him and he needed the rest. I question whether they should run him back in 3 weeks but his pedigree is top notch and McPeek likes to run his horses, for better or worse. At his best, he absolutely belongs with these other horses, I just worry that they're biting off too much too soon. But we'll see and at odds of 25/1 or higher, I could certainly back worse horses.
10. Super Stock: I don't particularly love this horses and I'm curious to see that Santana will ride Super Stock when Asmussen normally gives his best horse to him. Super Stock is owned by the Asmussens so maybe there is more at play here. Mike Smith gets the ride on Midnight Bourbon which will probably draw more money on him than is warranted. I think Midnight Bourbon is the only non-California horse that may be able to keep up with a quick early pace. But I think he will be pace compromised and suspect that Mike Smith will not give him the best ride here...but you never know. Super Stock could get a similar set up as the Arkansas Derby with a quick pace and maybe he is able to tuck in and get a nice rail trip and finish off strongly. I'm not high on either horse but think they warrant some consideration.
Horses I don't like and why:
Soup and Sandwich: This horse is green with only 3 starts and while he ran well in the Florida Derby, it was maybe too good. The other thing is that he does not look like the type to settle and will probably want to be involved with the early pace, which I think will ultimately compromise him and he'll fade in the end.
Mandaloun: He seems to like a wide trip and has no excuse for his brutally bad performance in the Louisiana Derby. He's working really well in the morning but he's just not the type of horse I want to put money on.
Brooklyn Strong: Self explanatory.
Like the King: I just don't think he's good enough.
Bourbonic: I think he got a dream setup in the Wood Memorial. I don't see it happening again and he'll probably get overbet as one of the few closers.
Sainthood: He's a tough horse but I just think outclassed here.
Keepmeinmind: Just hasn't shown enough at 3 for me to include in my bets.
Horses I might consider including in exotic bets:
Midnight Bourbon: I think he'll be pace compromised and don't trust Smith to give him a good ride...but he could hang on.
Hidden Stash: Seems to be an improving young horse but still might not be good enough to break into the money here.
Helium: I really hate that they took 8 weeks off following the Tampa Bay Derby. If they had run him back in one of the major preps or even in an allowance race, I'd feel a lot better about him. But he had such a wide trip in the TB Derby and still won despite a move mid-race around the turn, that showed me that he's a pretty good horse so maybe he can run well enough to break into the top 3-4.
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Final update (unless I change my mind again).
I'm tossing Rock Your World. I respect the horse and if he gets to the lead then he might never look back. But Medina Spirit draws inside of him and the other speed, so I think Baffert is going to have Johnny V. gun it and this will not be an easy lead for Rock Your World to get. He either gets caught up in a speed duel or pulls back and he's never done that before so I'm not banking on him to do well trying something for the first time.
With him out, I can make a solid case for Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, and Medina Spirit to win it, so they'll be on top for me in horizontal wagers and I'll probably make one big trifecta bet with the four of them on top and many of the horses that I mentioned underneath.
I'm tossing Rock Your World. I respect the horse and if he gets to the lead then he might never look back. But Medina Spirit draws inside of him and the other speed, so I think Baffert is going to have Johnny V. gun it and this will not be an easy lead for Rock Your World to get. He either gets caught up in a speed duel or pulls back and he's never done that before so I'm not banking on him to do well trying something for the first time.
With him out, I can make a solid case for Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, and Medina Spirit to win it, so they'll be on top for me in horizontal wagers and I'll probably make one big trifecta bet with the four of them on top and many of the horses that I mentioned underneath.
Thanks for the detailed input. I will post what I like probably Saturday morning.
gobigred
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This is a tough race to look at, think 8-10 horses can win this. I'm all over Known Agenda expect for he #1 post position, that spot has not produced winner since 1986 I believe. I do like the FLA Derby connection, a good majority of KY Derby winner also win the FLA Derby. Another interesting thing is the the past 10 Derby winners were winners in their last stakes race, that gives you eight horses that fall into that category; EQ, Known Agenda, Like a King, Hot Rod Charlie, Helium, Rock Your World, Bourbonic & Super Stock.
I'm looking to do a super or tri with Known Agenda & EQ, need to figure the others for that. I horses that I like other than the 2 favorites are; HRC, RYW, Helium & Medina Spirit. For a longer race upset type, looking at O'Besos, Like the King, Sainthood and Super Stock.
I'm looking to do a super or tri with Known Agenda & EQ, need to figure the others for that. I horses that I like other than the 2 favorites are; HRC, RYW, Helium & Medina Spirit. For a longer race upset type, looking at O'Besos, Like the King, Sainthood and Super Stock.
My initial $5 - $10 trifecta bets will be combinations of
Essential Quality
Hot Rod Charlie
Medina Spirit
Rock Your World
Midnight Bourbon
Essential Quality
Hot Rod Charlie
Medina Spirit
Rock Your World
Midnight Bourbon
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I have nothing of value to add in terms of any of the horses, or anything,
But I always spend the first Saturday in May homesick af.
So, I'll just leave this here and be on my way ...
I’m just here to watch hot women in crazy looking hats.
$2 W 5
$0.50 Tri 1,9,15/1,8,14,15/8,14
$1.00 EB 1,14,17
$0.50 Tri 1,9,15/1,8,14,15/8,14
$1.00 EB 1,14,17
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wow - great race!
thought medina started to falter
for just a moment down the stretch,
but pulled it out -
thought medina started to falter
for just a moment down the stretch,
but pulled it out -
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If I would have included Mandaloun, I would have had the trifecta.
It would/is a good payout. I saw the 10th race at Churchill paid a $405,179, $1.00 super
It was interesting that post race comments by announcer said Medina has never been passed in race when he is on the lead.