Appropriate times to bunt

Illustrious Potentate said:
Not according to analytics. Walks are very important, they wear down a pitcher and get runners on in front of the homers. BABIP is largely luck, and if you strikeout 100 times in a row and then leg out an infield single, your BABIP over that 101 AB stretch is 1.000.
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What analytics say bunting for a hit is bad?
 
PackJason said:
What analytics say bunting for a hit is bad?
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The ones that say bunting in general leads to less expected runs. Bunting for a hit is not guaranteed success and you’re taking away any possibility for an extra base hit.

I just think y’all are equating viable little league strategies to the big leagues
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
Not according to analytics. Walks are very important, they wear down a pitcher and get runners on in front of the homers. BABIP is largely luck, and if you strikeout 100 times in a row and then leg out an infield single, your BABIP over that 101 AB stretch is 1.000.
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Rather be lucky than good.
 
Kburjr said:
Rather be lucky than good.
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Luck tends to balance out over the course of 162. Which is a big reason why walks are important, so you can still get on base while slumping. It’s why guys like Javy Baez have such a short shelf life
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
The ones that say bunting in general leads to less expected runs. Bunting for a hit is not guaranteed success and you’re taking away any possibility for an extra base hit.

I just think y’all are equating viable little league strategies to the big leagues
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Swinging for the fences doesn't guarantee a hit, either. Putting runners on base makes runs much more likely.

And how the fuck does it take away the possibility for an extra base hit? Have you ever played the game?
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
The ones that say bunting in general leads to less expected runs. Bunting for a hit is not guaranteed success and you’re taking away any possibility for an extra base hit.

I just think y’all are equating viable little league strategies to the big leagues
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Batting average for attempted bunt hits is near .400. Has stayed static for years. Even with no walks, an OBP of .400 is pretty decent.
 
Kburjr said:
Batting average for attempted hits is near .400. Has stayed static for years. Even with no walks, an OBP of .400 is pretty decent.
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The hit to expected slugging isn’t nearly worth it. Also, sac burns/flies are counted against the OBP, but not batting average
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
The hit to expected slugging isn’t nearly worth it. Also, sac burns/flies are counted against the OBP, but not batting average
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So the approach is about even. I have read quite a bit of analytics starting back with Bill James and then Rob Neyer. It is an interesting field. There have been teams where both approaches have worked. The most consist method is more runners, more wins. Most home runs does not lead to pennants.
 
PackJason said:
Swinging for the fences doesn't guarantee a hit, either. Putting runners on base makes runs much more likely.

And how the fuck does it take away the possibility for an extra base hit? Have you ever played the game?
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Nothing guarantees a hit, but embracing launch angle and exit Velo gives a much greater probability for an extra base hit or homer(the best possible outcome for any AB). Take some walks and get on base before the homers, that’s the name of the modern game

Yeah, there were a few bunt doubles against the shift that is now banned, and you could probably count them on one hand. When bunting, you’re trying for a single. I played the game a lot, I don’t think you understand the modern game at the highest level
 
Kburjr said:
So the approach is about even. I have read quite a bit of analytics starting back with Bill James and then Rob Neyer. It is an interesting field. There have been teams where both approaches have worked. The most consist method is more runners, more wins. Most home runs does not lead to pennants.
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If you were a team like the 2021 Mets that hit a lot of homers, but had a low OBP, that’s probably not gonna win many games.

But teams that get on base a lot and hit a lot of homers are almost always among the best teams in the league. There’s exceptions like the 2015 Royals, but generally speaking
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
Nothing guarantees a hit, but embracing launch angle and exit Velo gives a much greater probability for an extra base hit or homer(the best possible outcome for any AB). Take some walks and get on base before the homers, that’s the name of the modern game

Yeah, there were a few bunt doubles against the shift that is now banned, and you could probably count them on one hand. When bunting, you’re trying for a single. I played the game a lot, I don’t think you understand the modern game at the highest level
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I suppose you favor a right hand batting swinging for the fences with a runner on 2nd rather than going the other way tonadvance the runner, nevermind that big gaping hole on the left side of the infield.

I will agree that what you describe is the modern game, but I call that Home Run Derby, not baseball.
 
Kburjr said:
I suppose you favor a right hand batting swinging for the fences with a runner on 2nd rather than going the other way tonadvance the runner, nevermind that big gaping hole on the left side of the infield.

I will agree that what you describe is the modern game, but I call that Home Run Derby, not baseball.
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I’d rather get the run in without creating an out in the process. I don’t want a batter going to the plate with the approach of hitting a grounder to second. If it happens, fine, but you’re not gonna split many gaps with that approach
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
If you were a team like the 2021 Mets that hit a lot of homers, but had a low OBP, that’s probably not gonna win many games.

But teams that get on base a lot and hit a lot of homers are almost always among the best teams in the league. There’s exceptions like the 2015 Royals, but generally speaking
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Or the Cardinals with the 2nd most championships. Hitting wins games. Pitching wins championships.
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
I’d rather get the run in without creating an out in the process. I don’t want a batter going to the plate with the approach of hitting a grounder to second. If it happens, fine, but you’re not gonna split many gaps with that approach
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Piss poor hitters can't.
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
Nothing guarantees a hit, but embracing launch angle and exit Velo gives a much greater probability for an extra base hit or homer(the best possible outcome for any AB). Take some walks and get on base before the homers, that’s the name of the modern game

Yeah, there were a few bunt doubles against the shift that is now banned, and you could probably count them on one hand. When bunting, you’re trying for a single. I played the game a lot, I don’t think you understand the modern game at the highest level
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Why not have a man on base for a 2 run HR? You're thinking too simple.
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
Now that there’s a DH in both leagues and the over shift is banned, there’s only two situations where a bunt isn’t a bad call.

They are:

1. A squeeze play that would walk off the game

2. To start the bottom half of an extra inning with the Manfred man if no runs scored in the top half of the inning and the second batter doesn’t strikeout much

You can disagree if you want, but you’d be wrong.
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Why would you trust a squeeze play vs a chance at a sac fly?
And if you do, then there are other situations where the bunt would make sense. Eg, the same situation in the 8th… or setting up a tie late in the game.
 
ELTEXAN said:
Why would you trust a squeeze play vs a chance at a sac fly?
And if you do, then there are other situations where the bunt would make sense. Eg, the same situation in the 8th… or setting up a tie late in the game.
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Squeeze and a sac fly accomplishes the same thing.

If it’s the 8th and there’s more game to be played, I’m not a fan of just playing for one run. Only time I think that’s a good play is in walk off situations
 
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