Road to the Kentucky Derby

I would put Highly Motivated as the horse to beat, Freedom Fighter will be there too. Cape Kano may be able to handle the mile, seemed to be about the length that he handles best. Aqueduct is also track he runs on. I look closer tomorrow morning, Weyburn and Crowded Table are probably the two I'll look at to mix into a super.
 
3,5,6,7 Super Box for the Gotham, added a 4, 3/7,3/7 tri
 
Super for TB Derby - 3,8,11/3,8,11/3,8,11/2,4,5,9,10 & 2,4,11/2,8,11/3,4,8,11/3,4,8,11
 
San Felipe - 1/2,3/2,3,5,7/5,7 & 3,5/1,3,5/1,2,7/2,7

Not much to win on this one with Life is good as heavy favorite at 1/2
 
Interesting weekend. Looking forward to the Rebel this Saturday.
 
Rebel Stakes looks to be a three horse race. Plenty of other stake races this weekend, see Swiss Skydiver running in G1 at Santa Anita.
 
psaboy said:
Rebel Stakes looks to be a three horse race. Plenty of other stake races this weekend, see Swiss Skydiver running in G1 at Santa Anita.
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I could be wrong but think Concert Tour will dominate.
 
phillyphilly said:
I could be wrong but think Concert Tour will dominate.
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Caddo River may give him a run, he has two turn route experience where CT has yet to run a two turn race, Not sure how big an advantage or disadvantage that is, but think that needs to be considered. Think race is between those two.
 
psaboy said:
Caddo River may give him a run, he has two turn route experience where CT has yet to run a two turn race, Not sure how big an advantage or disadvantage that is, but think that needs to be considered. Think race is between those two.
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Agreed. I like Caddo River, just think Concert Tour is more talented.
 
Oaklawn Race 9. Pick 4.
6,7,8,10 / 1,2,4,6,7 / 7 / 1,2,7,8,10,13
60.00
 
phillyphilly said:
Oaklawn Race 9. Pick 4.
6,7,8,10 / 1,2,4,6,7 / 7 / 1,2,7,8,10,13
60.00
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Good Luck. I hit the tri in race ten with 7/6,2/6,2

I'll post my Rebel Stakes picks in a bit, trying what mid odd range horse to add in, I'm liking 2 & 8 in mix.
 
Rebel;

2-4/1,7/1,7/1-8
1,6,7/1,6,7/1,6,7/1-8
 
psaboy said:
Sorry, the #5 blows it up. Sucks when that happens on first race.
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Yeah. I ended up with it only costing $45 because the 7 got scratched. And I missed the last leg anyway.

Concert Tour with a nice win though.
 
Louisiana Derby coming up on Saturday.

1. Starrininmydreams 20/1
2. Rightandjust 20/1
3. Run Classic 12/1
4. Proxy 7/2
5. Hot Rod Charlie 3/1
6. Mandaloun 8/5
7. Midnight Bourbon 5/1
8. O Besos 15/1

You've got 6 horses in here who ran in the Risen Star and we know how that race turned out. Newcomers are Hot Rod Charlie who ships to Louisiana from California after finishing 3rd by a neck to Medina Spirit (San Felipe runner up to Derby favorite Life Is Good) and Run Classic who exits a nice 8.5 furlong maiden win from Risen Star day.

Hot Rod Charlie's presence adds a little bit of intrigue to this race. So far, the California horses have absolutely invaded the rest of the country when shipping out. Concert Tour just dominated the Oaklawn contingent in the Rebel (although absent Essential Quality), Hozier finished 2nd in that one, Spielberg ran a solid 2nd to Essential Quality in the Southwest. That said, those are all Baffert invaders from the West Coast and Hot Rod Charlie comes from the Doug O'Neill barn. He's a major player in this race but I think Mandaloun is the best horse in this one so I'm hoping the success of the California horses attracts money to Hot Rod Charlie and we can get a decent price on Mandaloun. With Rightandjust and Midnight Bourbon the pace setters in the Risen Star and Proxy adding blinkers, there's a possibility that the pace heats up here a little bit so late runners like Run Classic and O Besos might be able to sneak into the money at 15/1 odds or higher.

Rankings
#6 Mandaloun 8/5
#5 Hot Rod Charlie 3/1
#7 Midnight Bourbon 5/1

Betting strategy:
Win bet: Mandaloun
Trifecta bet: Mandaloun over Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Run Classic, O Besos over Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Run Classic, O Besos, Proxy, Starrininmydreams ($10.00 bet for $0.50 wager).
Horizontal wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5): Use Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie.

Notes
If Mandaloun gets heavily bet and is say even money or lower and a horse like Midnight Bourbon or Hot Rod Charlie were to go off at 5/1 or higher, they might be worth a shot as either one of these is capable here.
 
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phillyphilly said:
Louisiana Derby coming up on Saturday.

1. Starrininmydreams 20/1
2. Rightandjust 20/1
3. Run Classic 12/1
4. Proxy 7/2
5. Hot Rod Charlie 3/1
6. Mandaloun 8/5
7. Midnight Bourbon 5/1
8. O Besos 15/1

You've got 6 horses in here who ran in the Risen Star and we know how that race turned out. Newcomers are Hot Rod Charlie who ships to Louisiana from California after finishing 3rd by a neck to Medina Spirit (San Felipe runner up to Derby favorite Life Is Good) and Run Classic who exits a nice 8.5 furlong maiden win from Risen Star day.

Hot Rod Charlie's presence adds a little bit of intrigue to this race. So far, the California horses have absolutely invaded the rest of the country when shipping out. Concert Tour just dominated the Oaklawn contingent in the Rebel (although absent Essential Quality), Hozier finished 2nd in that one, Spielberg ran a solid 2nd to Essential Quality in the Southwest. That said, those are all Baffert invaders from the West Coast and Hot Rod Charlie comes from the Doug O'Neill barn. He's a major player in this race but I think Mandaloun is the best horse in this one so I'm hoping the success of the California horses attracts money to Hot Rod Charlie and we can get a decent price on Mandaloun. With Rightandjust and Midnight Bourbon the pace setters in the Risen Star and Proxy adding blinkers, there's a possibility that the pace heats up here a little bit so late runners like Run Classic and O Besos might be able to sneak into the money at 15/1 odds or higher.

Rankings
#6 Mandaloun 8/5
#5 Hot Rod Charlie 3/1
#7 Midnight Bourbon 5/1

Betting strategy:
Win bet: Mandaloun
Trifecta bet: Mandaloun over Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Run Classic, O Besos over Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Run Classic, O Besos, Proxy, Starrininmydreams ($10.00 bet for $0.50 wager).
Horizontal wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5): Use Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie.

Notes
If Mandaloun gets heavily bet and is say even money or lower and a horse like Midnight Bourbon or Hot Rod Charlie were to go off at 5/1 or higher, they might be worth a shot as either one of these is capable here.
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I like the breakdown, esp the points on the CA horses. I'll want to look closer at Proxy tomorrow when the line starts moving.
 
psaboy said:
I like the breakdown, esp the points on the CA horses. I'll want to look closer at Proxy tomorrow when the line starts moving.
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Yeah. After looking at it a little more, I think I’d move Proxy up over Midnight Bourbon.
 
Found this interesting, profile of a Louisiana Derby Champion.

- Fair Grounds experience; most likely ran in the Risen Star Stakes. 6 of 8 had ran in the Risen Star, the 2 that didn't are Hot Rod Charlie and Run Classic. But then you need to consider the CA horse point. Plus, I like Run Classic as possible odds play on a tri or super
- In the first four at the quarter-mile marker. Points to the speed factor & run style. Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie seem to have the best mix of speed & early pace.
- Has an Equibase, triple digit speed number on his resume; although, the only to hit this mark violates the Fair Grounds' experience rule.
- And is likely to be one of the favorites, possibly the favorite. Mandaloun has the speed, but seems to be more of a presser run style. I thinking he will go off as favorite

I'm also hearing that Proxy's issue has been focus down the final stretch, the addition of blinkers should help today.
 
Super - 3/4,6/4-7/5,7 & 4-7
Tri - 3/4.5.6/4.5.6
 
Good thing I still have my regular job, not very good lately on handicapping these.
 
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